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Salvador BC 22, Culiacán BC 4                                2046-04-21 · #959
at Tannery Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Salvador               21      1   22   19    0
Culiacán                4      0    4    6    1

SALVADOR BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cabrera     c  ......    5   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.200
  a-Mejía   c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Marte       lf ......    3   4   2   0   0   1   1   3   0   0   0  0.667
Soto        ss ......    5   2   4   3   0   0   4   0   0   1   0  0.800
Féliz       cf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   4   1   0   0   0  0.500
Monteiro    3b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bautista    p  ......    5   4   3   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.600
Solano      1b ......    3   4   3   2   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  1.000
Barros      2b ......    3   4   3   3   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Andrade     rf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Almonte     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  38  22  19  10   0   2  21   8   3   1   0  0.500
  2B: Soto 3 (15), Féliz (9), Solano 2 (6), Barros 3 (6), Almonte (4).
  HR: Marte (2), off Tatís; Bautista (3), off Mudimu.
  CS: Féliz (2).
  HBP: Barros (1), Andrade (2).
  GIDP: Monteiro (1).
  a-Replaced Cabrera at C in the 7th.

CULIACÁN BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pérez       ss ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Polanco     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Massad      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Delgado     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pagán       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Severino    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rodríguez   rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lombardi    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Tatís       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Mani        j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Sartori     j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Sosa        j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29   4   6   2   0   0   3   2  10   0   2  0.207
  2B: Mani (6), Pérez (1).
  E: Polanco (2).
  GIDP: Pagán (1).


SALVADOR BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bautista (W, 3-0) ...    30   27 100%    5    4    4    2   10    0  108    -

CULIACÁN BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tatís ...............     9    4  15%    6    3    2    2    0    1   33    -
Sosa ................     6    4  15%    1    3    3    2    1    0   27  2-1
Soto ................     4    2   7%    1    2    2    1    0    0    6  1-1
Soto (L, 0-2) .......     6    1   4%    4    4    4    0    0    0   15  1-1
Firmino .............     5    2   7%    2    4    4    1    0    0   16  2-2
Mudimu ..............    10    7  26%    3    4    3    2    0    1   32  1-1
Bareiro .............     8    7  26%    2    2    1    0    2    0   27  1-1

  Batting order: Culiacán BC (home) batted second; Salvador BC batted first.
  Seconds: SB1 o24 (21-0), CB o25 (4-21).
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 82°F · Wind out · Overcast · Heavy rain. seed 736225.
  Walk-Back runs: off Tatís 1, off Mudimu 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Wander Marte Wander Marte (HR) 1–0
T 1 Andrés Soto Wander Marte (3B) 2–0
T 5 Wander Almonte Andrés Soto (3B) 3–0
T 5 Wander Almonte Fernando Solano (2B) 4–0
T 5 Wander Almonte Adrien Barros (1B) 5–0
T 6 Andrés Soto Wander Almonte (2B) 6–0
T 6 Andrés Soto Wander Marte (1B) 7–0
T 8 Robinson Bautista Andrés Soto (3B) 8–0
T 8 Fernando Solano Robinson Bautista (1B) 9–0
T 8 Adrien Barros Fernando Solano (2B) 10–0
T 8 Adrián Cabrera Adrien Barros (2B) 11–0
T 9 Ronald Féliz Igor Andrade (3B) 12–0
T 9 Ronald Féliz Adrián Cabrera (2B) 13–0
T 9 Ronald Féliz Wander Marte (1B) 14–0
T 10 Robinson Bautista Ronald Féliz (2B) 15–0
T 10 Fernando Solano Robinson Bautista (1B) 16–0
T 13 Andrés Soto Adrien Barros (2B) 17–0
T 17 Robinson Bautista Robinson Bautista (HR) 18–0
T 17 Fernando Solano Robinson Bautista (3B) 19–0
T 17 Adrien Barros Fernando Solano (1B) 20–0
T 20 Ronald Féliz Adrien Barros (3B) 21–0
B 4 Abu Mani Vittorio Sartori (3B) 21–1
B 7 Eulis Tatís Abu Mani (3B) 21–2
B 15 Víctor Pérez Víctor Pérez (3B) 21–3
B 17 Samuele Lombardi Hanley Rodríguez (3B) 21–4
seconds_first 0 Adrien Barros Fernando Solano (1B) 22–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 379' · CF 461' · RF 310' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Salvador BC — Batted Balls
33 BIP· 7 1B · 10 XBH · 2 HR
379' 461' 310' Adrián Cabrera — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Wander Marte — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +46° · 451 ft Andrés Soto — double · EV 119 mph · LA +33° · 480 ft Afonso Monteiro — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -9° · 74 ft Robinson Bautista — fly_out · EV 104 mph · LA +35° · 402 ft Wander Almonte — double · EV 104 mph · LA +32° · 389 ft Ronald Féliz — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 327 ft Fernando Solano — double · EV 112 mph · LA +32° · 453 ft Adrien Barros — double · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 392 ft Andrés Soto — double · EV 108 mph · LA +14° · 212 ft Afonso Monteiro — ground_out · EV 108 mph · LA +6° · 103 ft Robinson Bautista — single · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 363 ft Ronald Féliz — double · EV 103 mph · LA +18° · 254 ft Fernando Solano — double · EV 98 mph · LA +23° · 271 ft Igor Andrade — ground_out · EV 106 mph · LA +10° · 152 ft Adrien Barros — double · EV 100 mph · LA +48° · 394 ft Adrián Cabrera — single · EV 115 mph · LA +25° · 407 ft Afonso Monteiro — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +27° · 175 ft Robinson Bautista — single · EV 80 mph · LA +11° · 97 ft Ronald Féliz — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +8° · 91 ft Fernando Solano — single · EV 78 mph · LA -19° · 74 ft Adrien Barros — double · EV 105 mph · LA +19° · 270 ft Wander Marte — single · EV 62 mph · LA +19° · 94 ft Adrián Cabrera — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 256 ft Andrés Soto — double · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 350 ft Afonso Monteiro — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +58° · 371 ft Robinson Bautista — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +33° · 480 ft Ronald Féliz — single · EV 85 mph · LA +7° · 81 ft Igor Andrade — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 151 ft Adrián Cabrera — line_out · EV 109 mph · LA +13° · 210 ft Andrés Soto — error · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 120 ft Afonso Monteiro — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 219 ft Andrés Soto — single · EV 79 mph · LA +24° · 189 ft
Culiacán BC — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
379' 461' 310' Ivan Pagán — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 275 ft Haytham Massad — single · EV 78 mph · LA +25° · 187 ft Abu Mani — double · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 258 ft Sadiel Sosa — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Víctor Pérez — double · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Sammy Severino — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Jonathan Polanco — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 67 ft Abu Mani — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 226 ft Haytham Massad — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 162 ft Sadiel Sosa — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Víctor Pérez — single · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 149 ft Abu Mani — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 163 ft Sadiel Sosa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Wander Delgado — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +48° · 336 ft Ivan Pagán — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Sammy Severino — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +17° · 145 ft Vittorio Sartori — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Salvador BC
97% deserve-to-win  ·  27.8 expected runs
actual 22 runs  ·  -5.8 vs expected
contact: 48.7 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 35.0 (-13.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Robinson Bautista 104 / +35° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -2.02
Adrián Cabrera 115 / +25° Oppo Single 3.0 → 1 -1.97
Andrés Soto 119 / +33° Center Double 3.8 → 2 -1.81
Adrián Cabrera 100 / +20° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Fernando Solano 112 / +32° Center Double 3.4 → 2 -1.45
Culiacán BC
3% deserve-to-win  ·  5.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 9.9 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-2.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Abu Mani 92 / +25° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Abu Mani 92 / +21° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Víctor Pérez 92 / +40° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Haytham Massad 92 / +14° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Ivan Pagán 92 / +27° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.80
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