==============================================================================
Caracas Independence Brewery 6, Culiacán BC 5                2046-04-20 · #885
at Caracas Coliseum
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Culiacán                5    5    6    0
Caracas                 6    6    5    0

CULIACÁN BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Peña        lf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Polanco     2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Pagán       1b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Pérez       rf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Severino    c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Rodríguez   cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lombardi    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Frías       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Mejía       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Sartori     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  0.000
Sosa        j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Mani        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   5   6   0   0   0   5   5  12   0   1  0.240
  SB: Polanco (3).
  CS: Pérez (1).
  HBP: Sartori (4), Mani (1).
  GIDP: Peña (2).


CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Santos      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Calabrese   3b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Goodwin     lf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Báez        c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Marte       rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Almonte     1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Sosa    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Asare   2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Cruz    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Porozo      j  ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Maeda-Silva j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                   9   6   5   2   0   0   6   3   2   0   1  0.556
  2B: Maeda-Silva (11), Goodwin (6).
  CS: Báez (4).
  a-Entered at 3B in the 9th.
  b-Entered at 2B in the 9th.
  c-Entered at 1B in the 9th.

CULIACÁN BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mejía ...............     6    3  11%    2    2    2    1    1    0   19    -
Falcao (L, 1-1) .....     6    3  11%    3    4    4    2    1    0   19  1-1

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Santos (W, 3-0) .....    25   20  74%    6    5    5    4    7    0   80    -
Pinto ...............     8    7  26%    0    0    0    1    6    0   36  1-0

  Batting order: Caracas Independence Brewery (home) batted second; Culiacán BC batted first.
  First pitch 6:40 PM. Weather: 94°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 528040.
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Ivan Pagán Rafael Peña (2B) 1–0
T 6 Samuele Lombardi Víctor Pérez (2B) 2–0
T 8 Vittorio Sartori Sammy Severino (3B) 3–0
T 10 Ivan Pagán Rafael Peña (2B) 4–0
T 13 Víctor Pérez Jonathan Polanco (3B) 5–0
B 2 Jefferson Calabrese Hernesto Porozo (2B) 5–1
B 2 Garang Goodwin Jefferson Calabrese (2B) 5–2
B 3 Welington Báez Garang Goodwin (2B) 5–3
B 6 Renato Maeda-Silva Vladimir Marte (3B) 5–4
B 6 Renato Maeda-Silva Adrián Almonte (2B) 5–5
B 6 Renato Maeda-Silva Hernesto Porozo (1B) 5–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Caracas Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 375' · CF 436' · RF 305' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Culiacán BC — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
375' 436' 305' Ivan Pagán — single · EV 84 mph · LA -13° · 80 ft Víctor Pérez — single · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Sammy Severino — single · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 203 ft Samuele Lombardi — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Vittorio Sartori — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -15° · 74 ft Rafael Peña — double_play · EV 99 mph · LA -0° · 94 ft Jonathan Polanco — single · EV 72 mph · LA -11° · 68 ft Ivan Pagán — single · EV 100 mph · LA -18° · 95 ft Víctor Pérez — single · EV 84 mph · LA +18° · 169 ft Hanley Rodríguez — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA -1° · 90 ft
Caracas Independence Brewery — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
375' 436' 305' Hernesto Porozo — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 91 ft Jefferson Calabrese — single · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 190 ft Garang Goodwin — double · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 173 ft Welington Báez — single · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 253 ft Adrián Almonte — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — double · EV 114 mph · LA +31° · 460 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Culiacán BC
24% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 5.1 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jonathan Polanco 72 / -11° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Ivan Pagán 84 / -13° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.65
Víctor Pérez 88 / -2° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Rafael Peña 99 / +0° Pull Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.55
Ivan Pagán 100 / -18° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.47
Caracas Independence Brewery
76% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Garang Goodwin 88 / +17° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Renato Maeda-Silva 114 / +31° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -0.97
Hernesto Porozo 88 / +8° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Welington Báez 100 / +20° Oppo Single 1.6 → 1 -0.56
Adrián Almonte 100 / +6° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.41
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →