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Kitay-Torg Leopards 11, Graz Broncos 10                      2046-04-20 · #884
at Edwards Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Kitay-Torg             11   11    8    1
Graz                   10   10   13    0

KITAY-TORG LEOPARDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Jacksonov   ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hallov      lf ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.667
Taylor      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Quiglin     c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Karatsev    2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Pettin      rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Montero     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Amente      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Campbell    3b ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Maggs       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Harrisov    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Schlotterbe j  ......    2   3   1   0   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  30  11   8   2   0   2  11   6  17   0   1  0.267
  2B: Hallov (6), Campbell (7).
  HR: Hallov (4), off Kangwa; Schlotterbeck (3), off Muhr.
  E: Jacksonov (2).
  Squeeze: Quiglin (1 RBI).


GRAZ BRONCOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Covilhã     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Nel     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Ndour       rf ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Muhr        p  ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1  0.000
  b-Ndlovu  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Abebe   ss ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
  d-Webó    lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  e-Pandey  c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  f-Hakimi  lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Banda   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Jones   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  i-Javed   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Naidji  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  k-Engelbr ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  l-Jadhav  pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  m-Stalder pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bothma      j  ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.750
Collins     j  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Totals                  34  10  13   2   0   0   8   3   7   0   1  0.382
  2B: Abebe (9), Pandey (3).
  SB: Bothma (1), Pandey (2), Muhr (1).
  CS: Bothma (3).
  GIDP: Abebe (3).
  a-Ran for Covilhã in the 5th.
  b-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at LF in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at C in the 4th.
  f-Entered at LF in the 5th.
  g-Entered at 2B in the 7th.
  h-Batted for Banda in the 4th.
  i-Ran for Hakimi in the 4th.
  j-Batted for Ndlovu in the 5th.
  k-Struck out for Nel in the 7th.
  l-Ran for Jones in the 7th.
  m-Ran for Naidji in the 7th.

KITAY-TORG LEOPARDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Montero (W, 1-0) ....    18   13  48%    4    5    1    2    5    0   75    -
Morgan ..............    14   10  37%    5    4    3    1    2    0   54  2-2
Solano (F, 4) .......     4    4  15%    3    1    1    0    0    0   13  2-1

GRAZ BRONCOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Muhr (L) ............    18   14  52%    5    4    4    2   10    1   71    -
Kangwa ..............     7    5  19%    1    5    4    2    3    1   20  1-1
Trabelsi ............    10    8  30%    1    2    1    2    4    0   40  1-1

  Batting order: Graz Broncos (home) batted second; Kitay-Torg Leopards batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 70°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 776682.
  Walk-Back runs: off Kangwa 1, off Trabelsi 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Karle Taylor Myron Hallov (2B) 1–0
T 14 Michael Schlotterbeck Justice Campbell (3B) 2–0
T 14 Michael Schlotterbeck Karle Taylor (1B) 3–0
T 14 Michael Schlotterbeck Michael Schlotterbeck (HR) 4–0
T 14 Demarai Quiglin Michael Schlotterbeck (3B) 5–0
T 19 Myron Hallov Demarai Quiglin (3B) 6–0
T 19 Myron Hallov Donovan Pettin (2B) 7–0
T 19 Myron Hallov Justice Campbell (1B) 8–0
T 19 Myron Hallov Myron Hallov (HR) 9–0
T 23 Eulis Montero Myron Hallov (3B) 10–0
T 26 Justice Campbell Michael Schlotterbeck (2B) 11–0
B 7 Henry Ndour Bezabeh Abebe (3B) 11–1
B 9 Peter Bothma Hugo Webó (3B) 11–2
B 9 Udanta Pandey Henry Ndour (3B) 11–3
B 12 Nelson Covilhã Peter Bothma (3B) 11–4
B 12 Sofiane Naidji Arshad Javed (2B) 11–5
B 13 Henry Ndour Udanta Pandey (3B) 11–6
B 15 Peter Bothma Bjorn Nel (3B) 11–7
B 16 Jordan Jones Frank Muhr (3B) 11–8
B 23 Garang Collins Henry Ndour (3B) 11–9
B 23 Udanta Pandey Frank Muhr (3B) 11–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Edwards Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 278' · CF 358' · RF 290' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Kitay-Torg Leopards — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
278' 358' 290' Demarai Jacksonov — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 134 ft Myron Hallov — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 332 ft Karle Taylor — single · EV 75 mph · LA +5° · 71 ft Stepan Karatsev — single · EV 88 mph · LA -15° · 84 ft Justice Campbell — double · EV 95 mph · LA +32° · 324 ft Michael Schlotterbeck — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 389 ft Stepan Karatsev — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 80 ft Eulis Montero — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -13° · 84 ft Justice Campbell — single · EV 97 mph · LA +18° · 225 ft Myron Hallov — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 365 ft Mohammed Amente — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 231 ft
Graz Broncos — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 10 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
278' 358' 290' Peter Bothma — single · EV 101 mph · LA +10° · 138 ft Udanta Pandey — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +34° · 319 ft Bezabeh Abebe — double · EV 78 mph · LA +39° · 237 ft Hugo Webó — single · EV 85 mph · LA +12° · 115 ft Sofiane Naidji — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -7° · 58 ft Arshad Javed — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 223 ft Frank Muhr — error · EV 82 mph · LA -10° · 77 ft Pradip Jadhav — single · EV 79 mph · LA +3° · 75 ft Peter Bothma — error · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 128 ft Udanta Pandey — single · EV 96 mph · LA +5° · 91 ft Bezabeh Abebe — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 186 ft Hugo Webó — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +26° · 286 ft Jordan Jones — single · EV 86 mph · LA +23° · 216 ft Sofiane Naidji — single · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Garang Collins — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 125 ft Peter Bothma — single · EV 106 mph · LA +22° · 318 ft Udanta Pandey — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 74 ft Hugo Webó — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +46° · 248 ft Henry Ndour — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Garang Collins — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 232 ft Peter Bothma — single · EV 85 mph · LA +10° · 96 ft Udanta Pandey — double · EV 83 mph · LA +31° · 244 ft Bezabeh Abebe — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA +5° · 67 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Kitay-Torg Leopards
55% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +4.3 vs expected
contact: 11.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+3.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Myron Hallov 100 / +34° Center Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.48
Michael Schlotterbeck 100 / +38° Pull Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.98
Mohammed Amente 96 / +19° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
Demarai Jacksonov 100 / +10° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Justice Campbell 95 / +32° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Graz Broncos
45% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +3.9 vs expected
contact: 12.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bezabeh Abebe 78 / +39° Center Double 0.1 → 2 +1.88
Udanta Pandey 83 / +31° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.61
Hugo Webó 95 / +26° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Udanta Pandey 93 / +34° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Henry Ndour 76 / -10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
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