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Adelaide Baseball Club 14, Brisbane Thunder 2                2046-04-20 · #877
at Billa Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Adelaide               14   14   16    1
Brisbane                2    2    6    0

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Herbert     1b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Blanchard   c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Morgan  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hadlee      rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Cox     ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Postecoglou ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Gorry       cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Ili     ph ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Moras       3b ......    5   1   3   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Olla        lf ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.200
Mulligan    2b ......    4   4   4   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Spirano ph ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.250
Patel       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hrustic     j  ......    1   1   1   0   1   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  37  14  16   4   1   0  11   6   3   0   0  0.432
  2B: Spiranovic (4), Moras (2), Mulligan (7), Ili (8).
  3B: Hrustic (1).
  E: Cox (2).
  HBP: Cox (3).
  GIDP: Postecoglou (2).
  a-Ran for Blanchard in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Hadlee in the 4th.
  c-Batted for Gorry in the 4th.
  d-Batted in the 2nd.

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hsia        lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Henry       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Gustavsson  1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Ingles      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ponce       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Semenyo     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Puhi        ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Amini       p  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Morgan  c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Vukovic     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Toumi       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Robinson    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   2   6   1   0   0   0   0  17   0   0  0.200
  2B: Hsia (2).
  SB: Puhi (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

ADELAIDE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Creek (W, 4-0) ......    30   27 100%    5    2    2    0   18    0  106    -

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Amini ...............     9    6  22%    1    1    1    3    0    0   29    -
Anton ...............     7    6  22%    3    3    3    0    1    0   28  3-1
Steinmetz ...........     8    4  15%    5    2    2    0    0    0   22  1-1
Lochhead (L, 0-1) ...     9    3  11%    3    5    5    2    0    0   34  2-2
Vukovic .............    10    8  30%    3    3    3    1    2    0   42  3-1

  Batting order: Brisbane Thunder (home) batted second; Adelaide Baseball Club batted first.
  First pitch 5:45 PM VLAT. Weather: 78°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 387169.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 4 Simon Spiranovic Dave Patel (3B) 1–0
T 9 Simon Cox Beau Gorry (3B) 2–0
T 12 Simon Spiranovic Ish Mulligan (3B) 3–0
T 12 Simon Spiranovic Jackson Morgan (3B) 4–0
T 13 Flynn Olla Simon Spiranovic (3B) 5–0
T 13 Jackson Morgan Ish Mulligan (2B) 6–0
T 16 Brad Hrustic Paul Herbert (3B) 7–0
T 16 Brad Hrustic Miloš Postecoglou (1B) 8–0
T 19 Ish Mulligan Brad Hrustic (3B) 9–0
T 19 Jackson Morgan Thomas Moras (3B) 10–0
T 19 Simon Cox Ish Mulligan (3B) 11–0
T 21 Rachin Ili Paul Herbert (3B) 12–0
T 26 Thomas Moras Rachin Ili (3B) 13–0
T 26 Thomas Moras Ish Mulligan (2B) 14–0
B 16 Glenn Gustavsson Mika Puhi (3B) 14–1
B 16 Glenn Gustavsson Luke Amini (3B) 14–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 387' · CF 416' · RF 367' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Members' Pavilion
Adelaide Baseball Club — Batted Balls
28 BIP· 10 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Paul Herbert — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 209 ft Erick Blanchard — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +50° · 178 ft Taylor Hadlee — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 85 ft Miloš Postecoglou — double_play · EV 69 mph · LA -0° · 66 ft Thomas Moras — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +24° · 100 ft Flynn Olla — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 191 ft Ish Mulligan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Simon Spiranovic — double · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 327 ft Jackson Morgan — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -20° · 58 ft Brad Hrustic — triple · EV 101 mph · LA +22° · 280 ft Erick Blanchard — single · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 73 ft Thomas Moras — single · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 118 ft Flynn Olla — infield_single · EV 52 mph · LA -16° · 49 ft Ish Mulligan — single · EV 87 mph · LA +15° · 151 ft Simon Cox — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft Rachin Ili — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 137 ft Simon Spiranovic — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +34° · 250 ft Paul Herbert — single · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 124 ft Miloš Postecoglou — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 174 ft Thomas Moras — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 175 ft Ish Mulligan — double · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft Rachin Ili — double · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 387 ft Simon Spiranovic — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +41° · 209 ft Miloš Postecoglou — fly_out · EV 62 mph · LA +40° · 151 ft Flynn Olla — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +50° · 227 ft Ish Mulligan — single · EV 77 mph · LA +3° · 73 ft Flynn Olla — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Thomas Moras — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 128 ft
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Chien-fu Hsia — double · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 193 ft Henry Ponce — error · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Luke Amini — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 153 ft Andrew Henry — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Henry Ponce — single · EV 86 mph · LA -9° · 81 ft Luke Amini — single · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Chien-fu Hsia — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +17° · 86 ft Aaron Vukovic — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +14° · 125 ft Glenn Morgan — single · EV 82 mph · LA +16° · 145 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Adelaide Baseball Club
96% deserve-to-win  ·  9.0 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  +5.0 vs expected
contact: 13.7 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (+7.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brad Hrustic 101 / +22° Pull Triple 1.6 → 3 +1.44
Thomas Moras 92 / +11° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Simon Spiranovic 92 / +38° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Ish Mulligan 92 / +37° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Flynn Olla 52 / -16° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.83
Brisbane Thunder
4% deserve-to-win  ·  1.7 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Chien-fu Hsia 92 / +17° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Henry Ponce 92 / +10° Pull Reached on Error 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Henry Ponce 86 / -9° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.64
Aaron Vukovic 82 / +14° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Luke Amini 92 / -6° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
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