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Salvador BC 38, San Cristóbal Navy 5                         2046-04-20 · #876
at Coffin Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
San Cristóbal           5      0    5    7    0
Salvador               38      -   38   26    1

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Yamamoto-Pe lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Santos      3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Álvarez     rf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Messi       1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Yamamoto    2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Bautista    c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Gomes       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Galaz       p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Castill c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Feliz       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Encarnación j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kemppi      j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  25   5   7   2   0   0   4   5   4   0   0  0.280
  2B: Álvarez (2), Kemppi (5).
  SB: Álvarez (2), Bautista (3).
  CS: Santos (1), Messi (1), Bautista (3).
  HBP: Yamamoto-Pereira (2), Messi (1).
  GIDP: Messi (1), Kemppi (4).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

SALVADOR BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Marte       lf ......    5   5   3   1   0   1   4   2   0   0   0  0.600
Cabrera     c  ......    6   4   4   2   0   1   5   0   1   0   0  0.667
Soto        ss ......    6   5   5   3   1   0   6   0   0   0   0  0.833
Féliz       cf ......    5   6   3   1   0   2   5   1   1   0   0  0.600
Solano      rf ......    5   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.200
Ynoa        1b ......    4   3   1   1   0   0   2   2   2   0   0  0.250
Barros      2b ......    4   6   4   1   0   1   5   2   0   0   0  1.000
Sagredo     p  ......    5   2   2   1   1   0   4   0   2   0   1  0.400
Ortiz       3b ......    5   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Almonte     j  ......    1   2   2   1   0   0   3   1   0   1   0  2.000
Norman      j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Paniagua    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  47  38  26  11   2   6  37  11  11   1   1  0.553
  2B: Marte (15), Cabrera 2 (6), Soto 3 (12), Féliz (8), Ynoa (5), Barros (3), Sagredo (1), Almonte (3).
  3B: Soto (2), Sagredo (1).
  HR: Marte (1), off Guerrero; Cabrera (5), off Galaz; Féliz 2 (3), off Russo, Ynoa; Barros (1), off Tatís; Norman (2), off Guerrero.
  CS: Cabrera (4), Paniagua (1).
  E: Ynoa (1).
  GIDP: Sagredo (1).


SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Galaz ...............     4    1   4%    2    3    2    1    1    1   15    -
Tatís ...............     4    1   4%    3    4    4    2    0    0   20  1-1
Guerrero ............     5    1   4%    3    6    4    2    0    2   24  1-1
Biddle (L) ..........    11    5  19%    4    6    6    2    2    0   36  1-1
Geraldo .............     9    3  11%    4    6    6    2    0    0   24  1-1
Russo ...............     8    3  11%    4    6    5    2    1    1   31  1-1
Ynoa ................     8    5  19%    4    4    3    0    3    1   38  1-1
Tatís ...............     9    8  30%    2    3    2    0    4    1   34  1-1

SALVADOR BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sagredo (W, 2-1) ....    31   27 100%    6    5    3    5    4    0  114    -

  Batting order: Salvador BC (home) batted first; San Cristóbal Navy batted second.
  Seconds: SCN o26 (5-38).
  First pitch 8:10 PM. Weather: 90°F · Wind out · Overcast · Humid. seed 480437.
  Walk-Back runs: off Galaz 1, off Guerrero 2, off Russo 1, off Ynoa 1, off Tatís 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Adrián Cabrera Wander Marte (1B) 0–1
B 0 Adrián Cabrera Adrián Cabrera (HR) 0–2
B 0 Andrés Soto Adrián Cabrera (3B) 0–3
B 1 Fernando Solano Andrés Soto (3B) 0–4
B 1 Adrien Barros Fernando Solano (2B) 0–5
B 2 Wander Almonte Starlin Ynoa (3B) 0–6
B 2 Wander Almonte Adrien Barros (2B) 0–7
B 2 Jeremias Norman Wander Almonte (1B) 0–8
B 2 Jeremias Norman Jeremias Norman (HR) 0–9
B 3 Wander Marte Jeremias Norman (3B) 0–10
B 3 Wander Marte Vicente Ortiz (1B) 0–11
B 3 Wander Marte Wander Marte (HR) 0–12
B 3 Adrián Cabrera Wander Marte (3B) 0–13
B 3 Andrés Soto Adrián Cabrera (2B) 0–14
B 5 Giovanni Sagredo Andrés Soto (3B) 0–15
B 5 Giovanni Sagredo Ronald Féliz (2B) 0–16
B 5 Giovanni Sagredo Adrien Barros (1B) 0–17
B 5 Wander Almonte Giovanni Sagredo (3B) 0–18
B 8 Andrés Soto Wander Almonte (2B) 0–19
B 8 Ronald Féliz Andrés Soto (2B) 0–20
B 9 Adrien Barros Ronald Féliz (2B) 0–21
B 9 Adrien Barros Starlin Ynoa (1B) 0–22
B 9 Giovanni Sagredo Adrien Barros (2B) 0–23
B 11 Andrés Soto Giovanni Sagredo (2B) 0–24
B 11 Andrés Soto Wander Marte (1B) 0–25
B 11 Ronald Féliz Andrés Soto (2B) 0–26
B 11 Ronald Féliz Ronald Féliz (HR) 0–27
B 11 Starlin Ynoa Ronald Féliz (3B) 0–28
B 11 Starlin Ynoa Fernando Solano (1B) 0–29
B 13 Wander Marte Starlin Ynoa (2B) 0–30
B 14 Adrián Cabrera Adrien Barros (2B) 0–31
B 14 Andrés Soto Adrián Cabrera (2B) 0–32
B 14 Ronald Féliz Andrés Soto (2B) 0–33
B 14 Ronald Féliz Ronald Féliz (HR) 0–34
B 16 Adrien Barros Ronald Féliz (3B) 0–35
B 19 Adrián Cabrera Wander Marte (2B) 0–36
B 24 Adrien Barros Adrien Barros (HR) 0–37
B 24 Giovanni Sagredo Adrien Barros (3B) 0–38
T 3 Eulis Bautista Ronald Castillo (3B) 1–38
T 3 Gabriel Gomes Rodolfo Messi (3B) 2–38
T 4 Teófilo Galaz Akira Yamamoto (3B) 3–38
T 6 Tuomas Kemppi Eulis Bautista (3B) 4–38
T 6 Tuomas Kemppi Teófilo Galaz (3B) 5–38
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Coffin Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 304' · CF 403' · RF 334' · 39' wall). Short Porch (Left).
San Cristóbal Navy — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
304' 403' 334' Wall 39' Juan Álvarez — double · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 116 ft Élan De los Santos — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Ronald Castillo — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 78 ft Eulis Bautista — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 148 ft Gabriel Gomes — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +36° · 207 ft Teófilo Galaz — single · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 97 ft Sho Yamamoto-Pereira — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 93 ft Vladimir Encarnación — error · EV 92 mph · LA +1° · 87 ft Tuomas Kemppi — double · EV 93 mph · LA +37° · 332 ft Ketel Feliz — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +42° · 303 ft Rodolfo Messi — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Juan Álvarez — single · EV 60 mph · LA +15° · 71 ft Akira Yamamoto — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Eulis Bautista — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +39° · 267 ft Vladimir Encarnación — error · EV 53 mph · LA -4° · 51 ft Tuomas Kemppi — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -8° · 56 ft Ketel Feliz — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Élan De los Santos — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 86 ft Ronald Castillo — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +25° · 216 ft
Salvador BC — Batted Balls
32 BIP· 7 1B · 13 XBH · 6 HR
304' 403' 334' Wall 39' Adrián Cabrera — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Andrés Soto — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 238 ft Fernando Solano — single · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 173 ft Adrien Barros — single · EV 93 mph · LA +21° · 229 ft Wander Almonte — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Jeremias Norman — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +35° · 480 ft Wander Marte — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 397 ft Giovanni Sagredo — triple · EV 107 mph · LA +20° · 293 ft Wander Almonte — double · EV 91 mph · LA +36° · 317 ft Adrián Cabrera — double · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 170 ft Andrés Soto — single · EV 83 mph · LA +9° · 82 ft Wander Marte — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 300 ft Ronald Féliz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 334 ft Adrien Barros — double · EV 118 mph · LA +21° · 368 ft Giovanni Sagredo — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 268 ft Vicente Ortiz — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 301 ft Starlin Ynoa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 236 ft Andrés Soto — double · EV 115 mph · LA +15° · 264 ft Fernando Solano — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 346 ft Ronald Féliz — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Wander Marte — single · EV 94 mph · LA +19° · 220 ft Adrien Barros — single · EV 81 mph · LA +2° · 77 ft Andrés Soto — double · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 347 ft Ronald Féliz — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +30° · 436 ft Giovanni Sagredo — double_play · EV 96 mph · LA -15° · 91 ft Wander Marte — double · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 389 ft Adrien Barros — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +45° · 480 ft Adrián Cabrera — double · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 269 ft Andrés Soto — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 385 ft Ronald Féliz — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Wander Marte — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +51° · 303 ft Adrián Cabrera — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
San Cristóbal Navy
4% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 9.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-1.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Juan Álvarez 92 / +10° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Tuomas Kemppi 93 / +37° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Ketel Feliz 87 / +42° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Juan Álvarez 60 / +15° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.55
Eulis Bautista 82 / +39° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.53
Salvador BC
96% deserve-to-win  ·  28.1 expected runs
actual 38 runs  ·  +9.9 vs expected
contact: 51.1 est bases + 11 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 59.0 (+7.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wander Marte 100 / +42° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.51
Andrés Soto 100 / +18° Pull Triple 1.6 → 3 +1.44
Giovanni Sagredo 107 / +20° Oppo Triple 1.6 → 3 +1.42
Wander Marte 100 / +24° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Fernando Solano 100 / +30° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
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