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Maturín Wolves 16, Erdenet Sawmill 15                        2046-04-18 · #785
at Mirzadeh Bowl
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Maturín                16      -   16   17    0
Erdenet                15      0   15   13    1

MATURÍN WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Balko       1b ......    3   3   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.667
  a-Laiho   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bentancur   ss ......    5   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.200
Roark       2b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Gilgeous-Al rf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Height      p  ......    3   3   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.667
Cabrera     lf ......    3   1   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Oviedo  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Chien       c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
McDonough   cf ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Moten   c  ......    5   3   3   2   0   0   5   0   0   0   0  0.600
Elarms-Orr  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  35  16  17   6   0   0  16   5   4   0   1  0.486
  2B: Balko 2 (13), Moten 2 (4), Roark (3), Cabrera (3).
  SB: Bentancur (3), Moten (2).
  CS: Laiho (1).
  a-Ran for Balko in the 7th.
  b-Singled for Cabrera in the 6th.
  c-Entered at C in the 7th.

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rahimi      c  ......    4   3   3   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.750
Butt        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Etta        ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Jansen  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nagy        1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Tawfik  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Mooy        lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Carrizo     rf ......    3   2   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
  c-Encarna ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Liz     ph ......    3   0   3   3   0   0   6   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Geraldo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Dōan    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Davis   cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Barry   2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  i-Gautche ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  j-Castill pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  k-Murugan ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  l-Schraut pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  m-Desfor  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pritchard   j  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Samuel      j  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Porter      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Totals                  37  15  13   9   1   0  15   4  15   0   0  0.351
  2B: Rahimi (1), Etta (3), Nagy (3), Pritchard (2), Samuel (5), Liz 3 (6), Carrizo (2).
  3B: Carrizo (1).
  SB: Tawfik (2).
  CS: Liz (1).
  E: Barry (1).
  HBP: Pritchard (2).
  a-Ran for Etta in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Nagy in the 1st.
  c-Walked in the 2nd.
  d-Batted in the 2nd.
  e-Ran for Encarnación in the 2nd.
  f-Batted in the 3rd.
  g-Replaced Pritchard at CF in the 3rd.
  h-Replaced Porter at 2B in the 4th.
  i-Batted for Tawfik in the 4th.
  j-Ran for Barry in the 4th.
  k-Replaced Geraldo at SS in the 5th.
  l-Ran for Murugan in the 5th.
  m-Ran for Dōan in the 5th.

MATURÍN WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Height ..............    16   11  41%    5    5    5    1    7    0   52    -
Sandoval ............    15    7  26%    4    6    4    3    3    0   53  1-1
Chu (W, 1-1) ........    11    9  33%    4    4    4    0    6    0   47  3-2

ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tejada ..............     7    3  11%    4    3    3    0    1    0   26    -
Geraldo (L, 0-1) ....     8    4  15%    3    4    4    2    1    0   39  1-1
Hebert ..............     6    4  15%    3    2    2    0    1    0   22  1-1
Blumberg ............     4    2   7%    3    2    2    0    0    0   13  1-1
Kirkland ............     4    2   7%    1    2    2    1    0    0   16  2-1
Almonte .............     4    2   7%    2    3    3    1    0    0   21  2-2
Kroeger .............     6    7  26%    1    0    0    1    1    0   19  2-0

  Batting order: Erdenet Sawmill (home) batted first; Maturín Wolves batted second.
  Seconds: MW o24 (16-15), ES o24 (15-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 63°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 970967.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Nehemiah Etta Saman Rahimi (2B) 0–1
B 1 David Nagy Strong Jansen (2B) 0–2
B 4 James Liz Mostafa Tawfik (3B) 0–3
B 4 James Liz Yefri Geraldo (1B) 0–4
B 8 Franklin Pritchard Jason Mooy (2B) 0–5
B 12 Jomel Murugan Franklin Pritchard (2B) 0–6
B 12 James Liz Teoscar Castillo (2B) 0–7
B 12 James Liz DeBraun Schrauth (1B) 0–8
B 14 Saman Rahimi Garly Carrizo (3B) 0–9
B 15 Maurice Davis Dexter Desfor (3B) 0–10
B 15 Maurice Davis Saman Rahimi (2B) 0–11
B 19 James Liz Franklin Pritchard (3B) 0–12
B 19 James Liz Teoscar Castillo (1B) 0–13
B 22 Saman Rahimi Garly Carrizo (3B) 0–14
B 23 Jerry Samuel Saman Rahimi (2B) 0–15
T 0 Kingman Moten Mario Balko (2B) 1–15
T 3 Mitty Height Kingman Moten (3B) 2–15
T 3 Renato Cabrera Mitty Height (1B) 3–15
T 5 Kingman Moten Renato Cabrera (2B) 4–15
T 5 Kingman Moten Bud McDonough (1B) 5–15
T 5 Austin Bentancur Kingman Moten (3B) 6–15
T 7 Mitty Height Austin Bentancur (3B) 7–15
T 9 Mario Balko Mitty Height (2B) 8–15
T 11 Ian Roark Mario Balko (2B) 9–15
T 12 Bret Gilgeous-Alexander Ian Roark (2B) 10–15
T 13 Sheng-feng Chien Mitty Height (2B) 11–15
T 14 Kingman Moten Sheng-feng Chien (3B) 12–15
T 14 Kingman Moten Bud McDonough (2B) 13–15
T 16 Bret Gilgeous-Alexander Mario Balko (2B) 14–15
T 17 Warren Oviedo Kingman Moten (3B) 15–15
T 17 Warren Oviedo Bret Gilgeous-Alexander (2B) 16–15
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Mirzadeh Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 324' · CF 466' · RF 322' · 12' wall). Cavernous.
Maturín Wolves — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 11 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
324' 466' 322' Mario Balko — double · EV 116 mph · LA +19° · 331 ft Kingman Moten — double · EV 117 mph · LA +32° · 480 ft Austin Bentancur — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 268 ft Mitty Height — single · EV 82 mph · LA +20° · 172 ft Renato Cabrera — double · EV 114 mph · LA +47° · 480 ft Warren Oviedo — single · EV 82 mph · LA -3° · 78 ft Charles Elarms-Orr — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +16° · 177 ft Mario Balko — fly_out · EV 114 mph · LA +46° · 480 ft Kingman Moten — double · EV 102 mph · LA +12° · 162 ft Austin Bentancur — single · EV 83 mph · LA +26° · 215 ft Bret Gilgeous-Alexander — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +16° · 167 ft Mitty Height — single · EV 86 mph · LA +14° · 142 ft Renato Cabrera — single · EV 105 mph · LA +8° · 100 ft Ian Roark — double · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 116 ft Bud McDonough — error · EV 84 mph · LA +22° · 198 ft Mario Balko — double · EV 87 mph · LA +20° · 191 ft Kingman Moten — line_out · EV 103 mph · LA +17° · 237 ft Austin Bentancur — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -11° · 63 ft Bret Gilgeous-Alexander — single · EV 80 mph · LA +6° · 76 ft Renato Cabrera — single · EV 97 mph · LA +22° · 260 ft Sheng-feng Chien — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 173 ft Bud McDonough — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +22° · 192 ft Kingman Moten — single · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 106 ft Bret Gilgeous-Alexander — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Ian Roark — single · EV 84 mph · LA +3° · 80 ft Kingman Moten — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 114 ft
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 10 XBH · 0 HR
324' 466' 322' Saman Rahimi — single · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Nehemiah Etta — double · EV 114 mph · LA +11° · 200 ft David Nagy — double · EV 109 mph · LA +46° · 478 ft James Liz — double · EV 116 mph · LA +25° · 410 ft Jason Mooy — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Maurice Davis — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Jomel Murugan — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 114 ft Saman Rahimi — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +9° · 97 ft Franklin Pritchard — double · EV 117 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft James Liz — double · EV 114 mph · LA +29° · 441 ft Jason Mooy — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +6° · 90 ft Garly Carrizo — triple · EV 110 mph · LA +14° · 222 ft Maurice Davis — error · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft James Gautcher — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +22° · 334 ft Saman Rahimi — single · EV 116 mph · LA -0° · 110 ft Jerry Samuel — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 280 ft James Liz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 358 ft Garly Carrizo — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 216 ft Saman Rahimi — double · EV 115 mph · LA +25° · 410 ft Jerry Samuel — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 279 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Maturín Wolves
53% deserve-to-win  ·  17.3 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 29.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (-6.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mario Balko 114 / +46° Oppo Out 3.7 → 0 -3.75
Kingman Moten 117 / +32° Pull Double 3.8 → 2 -1.81
Renato Cabrera 114 / +47° Center Double 3.7 → 2 -1.75
Kingman Moten 103 / +17° Pull Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Austin Bentancur 98 / +22° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
Erdenet Sawmill
47% deserve-to-win  ·  16.2 expected runs
actual 15 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 32.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (-8.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Franklin Pritchard 117 / +40° Center Double 3.8 → 2 -1.81
David Nagy 109 / +46° Center Double 3.7 → 2 -1.70
James Gautcher 110 / +22° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Garly Carrizo 110 / +14° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.59
Jerry Samuel 100 / +22° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
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