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Ola Knights 13, Yagodnoye Sharks 2                           2046-04-18 · #784
at Yagodnoye Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Ola                    13   13   15    0
Yagodnoye               2    2    5    0

OLA KNIGHTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Motovilov   1b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
MacDonaldov cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Fedorov pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Muzaev      rf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Mayberr pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kirillov    lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Kloster pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gusev       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pogorelova  2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Gasanova    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  d-Ju      ph ......    3   4   3   1   0   1   6   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Wattel  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Olivera cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Marchenko   j  ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Sumarokov-E j  ......    4   2   2   1   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Souttar     j  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  36  13  15   6   0   2  13   2  13   0   1  0.417
  2B: Motovilov (3), Muzaev (1), Marchenko 2 (7), Ju (6), Sumarokov-Elston (3).
  HR: Ju (3), off Kurbanov; Sumarokov-Elston (2), off Mitchell.
  SB: Marchenko (7), Ju (1).
  CS: Pogorelova (1).
  a-Ran for MacDonaldov in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Muzaev in the 1st.
  c-Ran for Kirillov in the 1st.
  d-Batted in the 1st.
  e-Batted in the 2nd.
  f-Replaced Sumarokov-Elston at CF in the 4th.

YAGODNOYE SHARKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Terrell     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Tkacheva    2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Nembhardov  1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Motovilov   cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Chalova     c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Goloviznina ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.000
Mukhin      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Blinkova    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Bautist c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Fedorov     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lapushchenk j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Aalto       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   5   3   0   0   2   4   6   0   1  0.185
  2B: Tkacheva (5), Nembhardov (6), Chalova (2).
  SB: Lapushchenkova (2).
  CS: Chalova (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

OLA KNIGHTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Gasanova (W, 1-1) ...    29   27 100%    4    2    2    4    6    0   91    -

YAGODNOYE SHARKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Blinkova (L, 1-3) ...     6    1   4%    4    4    4    1    0    0   18    -
Mitchell ............    15   13  48%    4    4    3    1    6    1   53  1-1
Kurbanov ............    12    7  26%    6    5    4    0    4    1   47  1-1
Pashkova ............     5    6  22%    1    0    0    0    3    0   21  2-0

  Batting order: Yagodnoye Sharks (home) batted second; Ola Knights batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM MAGT. Weather: 54°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 801128.
  Walk-Back runs: off Mitchell 1, off Kurbanov 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Matvei Muzaev Vladimir Motovilov (2B) 1–0
T 1 Mykhailo Marchenko Danya Mayberrin (2B) 2–0
T 1 Hyeon-woo Ju Mykhailo Marchenko (3B) 3–0
T 1 Hyeon-woo Ju Amer Klosterman (1B) 4–0
T 2 Danny Souttar Hyeon-woo Ju (2B) 5–0
T 10 Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston (HR) 6–0
T 11 Hyeon-woo Ju Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston (3B) 7–0
T 11 Danny Souttar Amer Klosterman (2B) 8–0
T 16 Vladimir Motovilov Hyeon-woo Ju (3B) 9–0
T 19 Hyeon-woo Ju Alex Fedorova (3B) 10–0
T 19 Hyeon-woo Ju Mykhailo Marchenko (2B) 11–0
T 19 Hyeon-woo Ju Hyeon-woo Ju (HR) 12–0
T 19 Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston Hyeon-woo Ju (3B) 13–0
B 13 Anton Tkacheva Evgeny Mukhin (3B) 13–1
B 16 Vitaly Goloviznina Mikhail Lapushchenkova (3B) 13–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Yagodnoye Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 347' · CF 422' · RF 340' · 8' wall). Balanced.
Ola Knights — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 6 XBH · 2 HR
347' 422' 340' Vladimir Motovilov — double · EV 91 mph · LA +32° · 294 ft Croix MacDonaldov — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +51° · 294 ft Matvei Muzaev — double · EV 89 mph · LA +22° · 215 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — double · EV 85 mph · LA +35° · 273 ft Hyeon-woo Ju — double · EV 89 mph · LA +41° · 310 ft Danny Souttar — single · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 130 ft Jonathan Wattel — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +26° · 279 ft Vladimir Motovilov — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +27° · 229 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +43° · 393 ft Hyeon-woo Ju — single · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Danny Souttar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Vladimir Motovilov — single · EV 82 mph · LA +6° · 78 ft Croix MacDonaldov — single · EV 83 mph · LA -13° · 79 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — double · EV 89 mph · LA +47° · 319 ft Hyeon-woo Ju — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +36° · 421 ft Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston — double · EV 103 mph · LA +26° · 333 ft Danny Souttar — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -4° · 58 ft Savriyan Pogorelova — single · EV 74 mph · LA +16° · 117 ft Mykhailo Marchenko — single · EV 78 mph · LA +20° · 153 ft
Yagodnoye Sharks — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
347' 422' 340' Ilia Fedorov — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Anton Tkacheva — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +9° · 88 ft Avery Nembhardov — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Alen Motovilov — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +40° · 296 ft Marmaduke Terrell — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +4° · 70 ft Taras Chalova — double · EV 87 mph · LA +22° · 211 ft Mikhail Lapushchenkova — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +2° · 66 ft Evgeny Mukhin — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Ilia Fedorov — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -7° · 74 ft Mikhail Lapushchenkova — single · EV 90 mph · LA -2° · 86 ft Anton Tkacheva — double · EV 87 mph · LA +45° · 301 ft Avery Nembhardov — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Wandy Bautista — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 78 ft Evgeny Mukhin — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Marmaduke Terrell — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +29° · 157 ft Anton Tkacheva — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +48° · 261 ft Avery Nembhardov — double · EV 84 mph · LA +34° · 259 ft Ilia Fedorov — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +18° · 142 ft Mikhail Lapushchenkova — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA -7° · 79 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Ola Knights
73% deserve-to-win  ·  6.8 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +6.2 vs expected
contact: 16.5 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 27.0 (+10.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yaroslav Sumarokov-Elston 99 / +43° Pull Home Run 2.0 → 4 +2.04
Mykhailo Marchenko 85 / +35° Oppo Double 0.5 → 2 +1.47
Vladimir Motovilov 91 / +32° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Hyeon-woo Ju 106 / +36° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.99
Matvei Muzaev 89 / +22° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Yagodnoye Sharks
27% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 8.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Avery Nembhardov 84 / +34° Oppo Double 0.5 → 2 +1.47
Anton Tkacheva 87 / +45° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.37
Taras Chalova 87 / +22° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.28
Anton Tkacheva 84 / +9° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Wandy Bautista 84 / +8° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
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