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Liverpool BC 9, Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers 8             2046-04-22 · #984
at Munro Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Aberdeen                8    8    6    0
Liverpool               9    9    9    0

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Carusa      c  ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   5   1   1   0   0  0.667
Celis       lf ......    4   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Moravec     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Boehme      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Gushiken    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Hughes      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Telford ph ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Ramsey  ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Karas   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Root    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zelem       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kudryavtsev j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31   8   6   2   1   1   7   4  12   0   0  0.194
  2B: Carusa (7), Shurtleff (5).
  3B: Celis (1).
  HR: Carusa (4), off Whitehouse.
  a-Batted in the 3rd.
  b-Grounded out in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.
  d-Replaced Zelem at P in the 6th.

LIVERPOOL BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tong        lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Hampton     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Etta        ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Millender   3b ......    2   2   2   2   0   0   2   1   0   1   0  1.000
Lynch       cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Whitehouse  p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Williamson  2b ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bushamuka   1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Service c  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   3   0   1   1   0  1.000
Fretz       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Watkins     j  ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Hašek       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  22   9   9   3   2   0   9   4   9   2   1  0.409
  2B: Tong (12), Millender 2 (7).
  3B: Williamson (1), Watkins (1).
  SB: Hašek (4).
  HBP: Service (3).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Payne (L, 0-1) ......    13    9  33%    4    3    3    1    4    0   37    -
Mooney ..............     4    1   4%    2    2    2    2    1    0   17  1-1
Vaněk ...............     4    5  19%    1    2    2    0    3    0   18  2-2
Greenidge ...........     6    4  15%    2    2    2    1    2    0   22  1-1

LIVERPOOL BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Whitehouse (W, 4-2) .    32   25  93%    6    7    7    3   11    1  118    -
Sterling ............     3    2   7%    0    1    1    1    1    0   16  1-1

  Batting order: Liverpool BC (home) batted second; Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers batted first.
  First pitch 5:45 PM GMT. Weather: 65°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain. seed 944926.
  Walk-Back runs: off Sterling 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 9 Padraig Carusa Igor Kudryavtseva (2B) 1–0
T 9 Padraig Carusa Jordan Ramsey (1B) 2–0
T 18 Papu Celis Fabian Telford (2B) 3–0
T 18 Papu Celis Padraig Carusa (1B) 4–0
T 25 Padraig Carusa Chris Boehme (2B) 5–0
T 25 Padraig Carusa Radek Karas (1B) 6–0
T 25 Padraig Carusa Padraig Carusa (HR) 7–0
T 25 Papu Celis Padraig Carusa (3B) 8–0
B 7 Alexis Bushamuka Fabio Williamson (3B) 8–1
B 7 Ho-chol Tong Alexis Bushamuka (1B) 8–2
B 8 Theo Watkins Ho-chol Tong (2B) 8–3
B 10 Francois Millender Theo Watkins (3B) 8–4
B 10 Francois Millender Dominik Hašek (2B) 8–5
B 11 Aaron Service Francois Millender (3B) 8–6
B 11 Aaron Service Oisin Lynch (2B) 8–7
B 15 Nehemiah Etta Aaron Service (3B) 8–8
B 19 Aaron Service Francois Millender (2B) 8–9
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Munro Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 429' · RF 298' · 33' wall). Short Porch (Right).
The Porch Crow's Nest Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
344' 429' 298' Wall 33' František Moravec — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +11° · 71 ft Chris Boehme — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 196 ft Eoghan Hughes — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — single · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 259 ft Jordan Ramsey — fielders_choice · EV 72 mph · LA +3° · 68 ft Radek Karas — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Padraig Carusa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 214 ft František Moravec — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +7° · 90 ft Ben Shurtleff — double · EV 105 mph · LA +35° · 414 ft Fabian Telford — fielders_choice · EV 98 mph · LA +6° · 94 ft Papu Celis — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +18° · 211 ft František Moravec — ground_out · EV 115 mph · LA +3° · 110 ft Chris Boehme — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 227 ft Fabian Telford — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 146 ft Padraig Carusa — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +36° · 477 ft Papu Celis — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +13° · 140 ft
Liverpool BC — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
344' 429' 298' Wall 33' Dominic Hampton — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -8° · 74 ft Francois Millender — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +12° · 93 ft Oisin Lynch — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -14° · 68 ft Cian Whitehouse — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 84 ft Fabio Williamson — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +19° · 259 ft Alexis Bushamuka — single · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 83 ft Ho-chol Tong — double · EV 116 mph · LA +14° · 249 ft Theo Watkins — triple · EV 97 mph · LA +12° · 146 ft Nehemiah Etta — single · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 197 ft Francois Millender — double · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 381 ft Aaron Service — single · EV 98 mph · LA -5° · 93 ft Oisin Lynch — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Francois Millender — double · EV 114 mph · LA +16° · 280 ft Aaron Service — single · EV 95 mph · LA +11° · 141 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers
52% deserve-to-win  ·  9.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 17.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-4.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Papu Celis 96 / +18° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.68
Chris Boehme 93 / +17° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Ben Shurtleff 105 / +35° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.01
Papu Celis 89 / +13° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
František Moravec 115 / +3° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.70
Liverpool BC
48% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -0.2 vs expected
contact: 13.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Theo Watkins 97 / +12° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.83
Fabio Williamson 103 / +19° Oppo Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.46
Francois Millender 100 / +36° Pull Stay 2.1 → 1 -1.09
Alexis Bushamuka 88 / -7° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.64
Francois Millender 74 / +12° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
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