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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 11, Bridgetown Royal Provisioners 5   2046-04-21 · #956
at Billa Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Panevėžys              11   11   13    0
Bridgetown              5    5    7    0

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    4   0   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Turnbow     c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Mejía       lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lehnhoff    3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Breit       1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kittay      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   2  0.000
Mozee       2b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.667
Molina      rf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Eakin       cf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Saul        j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Faga        j  ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  34  11  13   5   0   0  11   5   9   0   2  0.382
  2B: Shafie 2 (13), Mozee (1), Saul (7), Faga (4).
  CS: Breit (1).
  GIDP: Lehnhoff (2).


BRIDGETOWN ROYAL PROVISIONERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Céspedes    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Onoh        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Castrovilli lf ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.750
McKinzie    2b ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Eakin       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lai         rf ......    3   1   3   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Moten       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tshabalala  cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  a-Hancock ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Ison        j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   5   7   2   0   1   5   1  14   0   0  0.233
  2B: Lai 2 (2).
  HR: McKinzie (2), off Kittay.
  CS: Onoh (1), Lai (1).
  a-Entered at SS in the 7th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kittay (W, 3-0) .....    27   22  81%    6    5    4    1   10    1   95    -
Hulak (F, 13) .......     5    5  19%    1    0    0    0    4    0   23  1-0

BRIDGETOWN ROYAL PROVISIONERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Onoh (L, 1-1) .......    28   21  78%    9    7    7    3    6    0   98    -
Metzger .............    11    6  22%    4    4    4    2    3    0   50  2-2

  Batting order: Bridgetown Royal Provisioners (home) batted second; Panevėžys Bottling Co. batted first.
  First pitch 1:10 PM. Weather: 71°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 712889.
  Walk-Back runs: off Kittay 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 12 Malik Breit Mackenzie Faga (3B) 1–0
T 12 Destyn Kittay Diego Turnbow (3B) 2–0
T 13 Donni Mozee Armondo Lehnhoff (3B) 3–0
T 14 Tavierre Saul Malik Breit (3B) 4–0
T 15 Mackenzie Faga Donni Mozee (3B) 5–0
T 21 Donni Mozee Tavierre Saul (3B) 6–0
T 21 Donni Mozee Mackenzie Faga (1B) 7–0
T 21 Ashlynd Molina Kent Eakin (3B) 8–0
T 22 Harris Shafie Donni Mozee (3B) 9–0
T 22 Harris Shafie Ashlynd Molina (2B) 10–0
T 22 Sadiel Mejía Kent Eakin (3B) 11–0
B 10 Basil McKinzie Zhiqiang Lai (2B) 11–1
B 10 Basil McKinzie Bryan Castrovilli (1B) 11–2
B 10 Basil McKinzie Basil McKinzie (HR) 11–3
B 13 Zhiqiang Lai Basil McKinzie (3B) 11–4
B 22 Zhiqiang Lai Clifford Ison (1B) 11–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 376' · CF 430' · RF 379' · 5' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 8 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
376' 430' 379' Harris Shafie — double · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 118 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 133 ft Malik Breit — single · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Tavierre Saul — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 118 ft Mackenzie Faga — double · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 196 ft Harris Shafie — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Sadiel Mejía — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +32° · 97 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Donni Mozee — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 179 ft Ashlynd Molina — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 178 ft Tavierre Saul — double · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 338 ft Mackenzie Faga — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Diego Turnbow — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +52° · 224 ft Kent Eakin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 78 mph · LA +22° · 169 ft Harris Shafie — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 312 ft Sadiel Mejía — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 181 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 207 ft Donni Mozee — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 321 ft Ashlynd Molina — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 159 ft Malik Breit — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 151 ft Sadiel Mejía — single · EV 77 mph · LA +12° · 94 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft
Bridgetown Royal Provisioners — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
376' 430' 379' Bryan Castrovilli — single · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Zhiqiang Lai — single · EV 85 mph · LA +21° · 196 ft Bryan Castrovilli — single · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 289 ft Basil McKinzie — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +47° · 480 ft Zhiqiang Lai — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 262 ft Hubertus Moten — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +0° · 83 ft Pete Onoh — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 85 ft Clifford Ison — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA +9° · 89 ft Luis Céspedes — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +41° · 234 ft Zhiqiang Lai — double · EV 97 mph · LA +30° · 329 ft Bryan Castrovilli — single · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 149 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
86% deserve-to-win  ·  8.8 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 14.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (+3.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Harris Shafie 92 / +10° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Harris Shafie 92 / +13° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Harris Shafie 92 / +34° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Sadiel Mejía 92 / +16° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Mackenzie Faga 93 / +17° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Bridgetown Royal Provisioners
14% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.5 vs expected
contact: 12.9 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pete Onoh 88 / +8° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Zhiqiang Lai 97 / +30° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Clifford Ison 83 / +9° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Bryan Castrovilli 100 / +23° Pull Single 1.6 → 1 -0.56
Zhiqiang Lai 100 / +20° Center Double 1.6 → 2 +0.44
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