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Caracas Independence Brewery 20, San Cristóbal Navy 7        2046-04-21 · #953
at Caracas Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
San Cristóbal           7      0    7    5    0
Caracas                20      -   20   23    0

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Scarpa      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Yamamoto-Si rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Yamamoto-Pe lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Geraldo     2b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  0.667
Álvarez     ss ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Messi       1b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Santos      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Solano      p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Bagüí   c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Kemppi      j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Feliz       j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Encarnación j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   7   5   1   0   0   4   3  12   1   0  0.161
  2B: Bagüí (1).
  SB: Álvarez (3).
  HBP: Yamamoto-Pereira (3), Santos (2).
  GIDP: Santos (1).
  Squeeze: Scarpa.
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Guimarães   ss ......    5   1   3   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Encarnación 2b ......    5   1   1   0   1   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.200
Báez        c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.500
Moraes      lf ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Marte       rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Najar       cf ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Almonte     3b ......    4   3   3   3   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.750
Santos      p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Sheikh      1b ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Porozo      j  ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Maeda-Silva j  ......    4   4   4   2   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  44  20  23  15   1   1  19   3   6   0   0  0.523
  2B: Guimarães 2 (12), Báez (7), Moraes 2 (6), Marte (11), Najar (5), Porozo 2 (12), Almonte 3 (14), Maeda-Silva 2 (13), Sheikh (1).
  3B: Encarnación (2).
  HR: Maeda-Silva (4), off Ynoa.
  SB: Báez (5).
  CS: Guimarães (7), Báez (5), Moraes (1).


SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Solano ..............     8    5  19%    4    2    2    0    3    0   29    -
Moretti (L, 0-2) ....     5    1   4%    3    4    4    1    0    0   17  1-1
Paniagua ............     8    4  15%    4    4    4    1    1    0   27  1-1
Izidoro .............     5    3  11%    4    2    2    0    0    0   18  1-1
Ynoa ................    12    9  33%    4    4    4    1    0    1   46  1-0
Tabet ...............     7    3  11%    4    4    4    0    0    0   27  1-1
Frías ...............     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    2    0   10  1-0

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Santos (W, 4-0) .....    35   27 100%    5    7    7    3   12    0  138    -

  Batting order: Caracas Independence Brewery (home) batted first; San Cristóbal Navy batted second.
  Seconds: SCN o26 (7-20).
  First pitch 1:10 PM. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 831724.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 4 Enner Najar Samuel Moraes (1B) 0–1
B 4 Hernesto Porozo Enner Najar (2B) 0–2
B 5 Víctor De los Santos Adrián Almonte (2B) 0–3
B 5 Renato Maeda-Silva Víctor De los Santos (1B) 0–4
B 6 Fernando Encarnación Renato Maeda-Silva (2B) 0–5
B 6 Fernando Encarnación Belal Sheikh (1B) 0–6
B 6 Welington Báez Fernando Encarnación (3B) 0–7
B 9 Adrián Almonte Enner Najar (1B) 0–8
B 10 Hernesto Porozo Adrián Almonte (2B) 0–9
B 10 Renato Maeda-Silva Hernesto Porozo (2B) 0–10
B 10 Belal Sheikh Renato Maeda-Silva (1B) 0–11
B 10 Alisson Guimarães Belal Sheikh (2B) 0–12
B 19 Renato Maeda-Silva Renato Maeda-Silva (HR) 0–13
B 21 Fernando Encarnación Alisson Guimarães (3B) 0–14
B 22 Samuel Moraes Welington Báez (2B) 0–15
B 22 Vladimir Marte Samuel Moraes (3B) 0–16
B 22 Enner Najar Vladimir Marte (2B) 0–17
B 22 Adrián Almonte Enner Najar (1B) 0–18
B 22 Víctor De los Santos Adrián Almonte (3B) 0–19
B 25 Alisson Guimarães Renato Maeda-Silva (2B) 0–20
T 12 Sadiel Geraldo Juan Álvarez (3B) 1–20
T 12 Sadiel Geraldo Hanley Solano (2B) 2–20
T 15 Sho Yamamoto-Pereira Ketel Feliz (3B) 3–20
T 15 Élan De los Santos Juan Álvarez (3B) 4–20
T 15 Igor Bagüí Rodolfo Messi (3B) 5–20
T 19 Tuomas Kemppi Sho Yamamoto-Pereira (3B) 6–20
T 22 Juan Álvarez Élan De los Santos (3B) 7–20
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Caracas Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 375' · CF 436' · RF 305' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
San Cristóbal Navy — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
375' 436' 305' Sadiel Geraldo — single · EV 55 mph · LA -10° · 52 ft Ketel Feliz — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 224 ft Juan Álvarez — single · EV 52 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Sho Yamamoto-Pereira — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 211 ft Élan De los Santos — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Sadiel Geraldo — single · EV 55 mph · LA +18° · 70 ft Juan Álvarez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Sho Yamamoto-Pereira — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 134 ft Élan De los Santos — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Hanley Solano — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 351 ft Sadiel Geraldo — fly_out · EV 55 mph · LA +32° · 106 ft Hiroshi Yamamoto-Silva — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -16° · 63 ft Juan Álvarez — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +41° · 349 ft Éder Scarpa — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Igor Bagüí — double · EV 118 mph · LA +20° · 359 ft
Caracas Independence Brewery — Batted Balls
35 BIP· 6 1B · 16 XBH · 1 HR
375' 436' 305' Fernando Encarnación — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +51° · 391 ft Samuel Moraes — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 235 ft Enner Najar — double · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 145 ft Hernesto Porozo — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 181 ft Adrián Almonte — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Víctor De los Santos — single · EV 68 mph · LA +13° · 82 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 292 ft Belal Sheikh — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 229 ft Alisson Guimarães — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +33° · 250 ft Fernando Encarnación — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 311 ft Welington Báez — single · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 107 ft Samuel Moraes — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +32° · 437 ft Vladimir Marte — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Adrián Almonte — double · EV 113 mph · LA +34° · 468 ft Hernesto Porozo — double · EV 111 mph · LA +22° · 342 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 88 ft Enner Najar — fly_out · EV 75 mph · LA +34° · 208 ft Belal Sheikh — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +38° · 280 ft Alisson Guimarães — double · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 412 ft Fernando Encarnación — fly_out · EV 117 mph · LA +26° · 435 ft Welington Báez — double · EV 103 mph · LA +19° · 258 ft Samuel Moraes — double · EV 116 mph · LA +20° · 350 ft Adrián Almonte — ground_out · EV 118 mph · LA +4° · 112 ft Víctor De los Santos — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -10° · 92 ft Hernesto Porozo — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +13° · 224 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +49° · 427 ft Enner Najar — single · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Belal Sheikh — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +28° · 258 ft Alisson Guimarães — double · EV 115 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Fernando Encarnación — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +27° · 191 ft Samuel Moraes — double · EV 91 mph · LA +36° · 316 ft Vladimir Marte — double · EV 97 mph · LA +12° · 158 ft Adrián Almonte — double · EV 103 mph · LA +15° · 216 ft Renato Maeda-Silva — double · EV 97 mph · LA +29° · 323 ft Alisson Guimarães — single · EV 113 mph · LA +9° · 153 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
San Cristóbal Navy
6% deserve-to-win  ·  5.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 8.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hanley Solano 100 / +31° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Juan Álvarez 94 / +41° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Sho Yamamoto-Pereira 92 / +19° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Sadiel Geraldo 55 / -10° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Juan Álvarez 52 / +11° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.55
Caracas Independence Brewery
94% deserve-to-win  ·  19.5 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 44.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 43.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 3 CS (-2.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Samuel Moraes 110 / +32° Center Out 3.4 → 0 -3.45
Renato Maeda-Silva 104 / +49° Oppo Home Run 0.9 → 4 +3.06
Fernando Encarnación 117 / +26° Pull Out 3.0 → 0 -2.97
Adrián Almonte 113 / +34° Pull Double 3.8 → 2 -1.81
Alisson Guimarães 115 / +40° Pull Double 3.7 → 2 -1.75
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