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Hermosillo BC 5, Olympika Imperial Tailors 4                 2046-04-20 · #900
at Copper Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Hermosillo              5    5    4    0
Olympika                4    4    5    0

HERMOSILLO BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Watling     1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Jung        c  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Lannoy      lf ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cota        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Probst      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Tang    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Sharipo c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Blake   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
O'Malley    j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                   9   5   4   1   0   2   5   1   3   0   0  0.444
  2B: Jung (14).
  HR: Watling (5), off Barnhardt; Lannoy (8), off Barnhardt.
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.
  b-Entered at C in the 9th.
  c-Entered at SS in the 9th.

OLYMPIKA IMPERIAL TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Diatchenko  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Malinovskyi rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Ashbin      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Novikov     ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Davisov ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fuda        1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Iakovlev    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Binda       c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Barnhardt   p  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Chervya ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Owens   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Watts       j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Dunne       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pylypenko   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   4   5   2   0   0   4   4  10   0   0  0.192
  2B: Binda (3), Barnhardt (1).
  SB: Fuda (3).
  CS: Diatchenko (1).
  HBP: Novikov (2), Dunne (1).
  a-Batted for Novikov in the 5th.
  b-Grounded out for Barnhardt in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Pylypenko in the 2nd.

HERMOSILLO BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Clement (W, 4-0) ....    31   26  96%    5    4    4    4   10    0  127    -
Motohashi ...........     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    0    0    4  1-0

OLYMPIKA IMPERIAL TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Barnhardt (L, 0-2) ..     4    1   4%    3    4    3    0    0    2    9    -
Rebrov ..............     6    4  15%    1    1    1    1    3    0   30    -

  Batting order: Olympika Imperial Tailors (home) batted first; Hermosillo BC batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM YAKT. Weather: 45°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 793444.
  Walk-Back runs: off Barnhardt 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 8 Valery Iakovlev Colm Dunne (3B) 0–1
B 9 Chad Barnhardt Richard Binda (2B) 0–2
B 9 Heimir Watts Chad Barnhardt (2B) 0–3
B 19 Rifat Chervyakov Taisei Fuda (3B) 0–4
T 0 Fernando de Lannoy Dong-hyun Jung (3B) 1–4
T 0 Fernando de Lannoy Fernando de Lannoy (HR) 2–4
T 0 Tom Watling Fernando de Lannoy (3B) 3–4
T 0 Tom Watling Tom Watling (HR) 4–4
T 4 Soane Strachan Alen Sharipov (2B) 5–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Copper Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 355' · RF 277' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Hermosillo BC — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 2 HR
279' 355' 277' Dong-hyun Jung — double · EV 95 mph · LA +18° · 211 ft Fernando de Lannoy — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +43° · 451 ft Tom Watling — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Don Blake — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +46° · 322 ft Mitchell O'Malley — single · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 146 ft Soane Strachan — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft
Olympika Imperial Tailors — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
279' 355' 277' Heimir Watts — single · EV 95 mph · LA -15° · 91 ft Dmytro Malinovskyi — single · EV 119 mph · LA +5° · 113 ft Jan-michael Ashbin — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Kyrylo Pylypenko — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Valery Iakovlev — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +21° · 380 ft Richard Binda — double · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 239 ft Chad Barnhardt — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 221 ft Dennis Davisov — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -6° · 69 ft Rifat Chervyakov — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Heimir Watts — single · EV 78 mph · LA -17° · 74 ft Valery Iakovlev — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Richard Binda — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Alexei Diatchenko — ground_out · EV 119 mph · LA +9° · 173 ft Jan-michael Ashbin — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 219 ft Valery Iakovlev — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Hermosillo BC
24% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 11.2 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Don Blake 90 / +46° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Dong-hyun Jung 95 / +18° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.69
Fernando de Lannoy 106 / +43° Center Home Run 3.6 → 4 +0.40
Soane Strachan 87 / +4° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.40
Tom Watling 116 / +38° Pull Home Run 3.8 → 4 +0.19
Olympika Imperial Tailors
76% deserve-to-win  ·  8.6 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -4.6 vs expected
contact: 12.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-5.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Valery Iakovlev 119 / +21° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Jan-michael Ashbin 100 / +17° Pull Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Alexei Diatchenko 119 / +9° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.53
Heimir Watts 78 / -17° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Kyrylo Pylypenko 100 / -5° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
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