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Perth Smelters 33, Sydney Border Force 6                     2046-04-20 · #894
at Whitestone Pillai Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Sydney                  6      0    6    5    0
Perth                  33      0   33   29    0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rukavytsya  2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Vine        ss ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Pledger     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Crowe       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rowles      rf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Jiménez-Tro lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Blundell    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Nayler      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Gorry   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Goulding    p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Anton       j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.250
Hunt        j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  29   6   5   2   0   0   6   4  15   0   0  0.172
  2B: Vine (2), Rowles (2).
  SB: Rukavytsya (1), Vine (3), Hunt (4).
  Squeeze: Anton (1 RBI), Jiménez-Tromp.
  a-Struck out for Nayler in the 9th.

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Anton       ss ......    4   3   4   2   1   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Syph-Ti ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Esson       3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Cumming pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Arzani      1b ......    5   3   4   1   0   1   6   0   0   0   0  0.800
Jedinak     rf ......    6   1   4   1   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.667
McCullum    c  ......    6   2   2   1   1   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Redmayne    2b ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Wesbroo 2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Smeltz      lf ......    3   3   3   2   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Wetzell pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sainsbury   p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  e-Olla    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Madgen  ph ......    5   6   3   1   0   2   6   0   1   0   0  0.600
  g-Bowen   ph ......    3   4   2   1   0   0   3   2   1   0   0  0.667
  h-Kerr    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Foster  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Olla        j  ......    4   4   3   0   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.750
Totals                  47  33  29  12   2   5  33   7   6   0   0  0.617
  2B: Anton 2 (10), Madgen (21), Arzani (12), Jedinak (4), McCullum (2), Redmayne (3), Smeltz 2 (5), Sainsbury (1), Bowen (6), Wesbrook (2).
  3B: Anton (1), McCullum (1).
  HR: Madgen 2 (4), off Goulding, Rowles; Arzani (2), off Karačić; Smeltz (1), off Henry; Olla (5), off Aroha.
  SB: Madgen (6), Arzani (2).
  CS: Anton (3), Madgen (3), Arzani (5).
  HBP: Madgen (4), Arzani (2).
  a-Replaced Anton at SS in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Esson in the 1st.
  c-Replaced Redmayne at 2B in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Smeltz in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Sainsbury in the 6th.
  f-Batted in the 1st.
  g-Batted for Cummings in the 2nd.
  h-Batted for Olla in the 7th.
  i-Replaced Wetzell at C in the 8th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Goulding ............     5    1   4%    3    4    3    1    1    1   16    -
Henry ...............    12    9  33%    7    5    4    0    2    1   40  1-0
Aroha ...............    12    8  30%    5    6    5    2    1    1   45  1-1
Karačić .............     7    2   7%    5    6    5    1    1    1   25  1-0
Rowles ..............     7    1   4%    4    6    5    2    0    1   35  1-1
Rennie (L, 1-2) .....    11    6  22%    5    6    6    1    1    0   41  2-1

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sainsbury (W, 1-0) ..    27   24  89%    4    5    5    3   14    0  109    -
Vanna ...............     4    3  11%    0    1    1    1    2    0   13  1-1

  Batting order: Perth Smelters (home) batted first; Sydney Border Force batted second.
  Seconds: SBF o26 (6-33), PS o26 (33-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM IRKT. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 184433.
  Walk-Back runs: off Goulding 1, off Henry 1, off Aroha 1, off Karačić 1, off Rowles 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Nikita Madgen Tony Anton (2B) 0–1
B 0 Nikita Madgen Nikita Madgen (HR) 0–2
B 0 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–3
B 0 Aaron Arzani Pat Cummings (1B) 0–4
B 1 Iain McCullum Greg Jedinak (1B) 0–5
B 3 Ish Smeltz Ish Smeltz (HR) 0–6
B 3 Scott Olla Ish Smeltz (3B) 0–7
B 5 Shane Bowen Scott Olla (2B) 0–8
B 9 Dean Redmayne Shane Bowen (2B) 0–9
B 9 Ish Smeltz Dean Redmayne (1B) 0–10
B 9 Scott Olla Ish Smeltz (2B) 0–11
B 10 Tony Anton Robbie Sainsbury (1B) 0–12
B 12 Greg Jedinak Shane Bowen (2B) 0–13
B 17 Scott Olla Scott Olla (HR) 0–14
B 17 Robbie Sainsbury Scott Olla (3B) 0–15
B 17 Nikita Madgen Adam Olla (2B) 0–16
B 17 Nikita Madgen Tony Anton (1B) 0–17
B 18 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–18
B 18 Aaron Arzani Aaron Arzani (HR) 0–19
B 18 Greg Jedinak Aaron Arzani (3B) 0–20
B 19 Dean Redmayne Iain McCullum (3B) 0–21
B 19 Ish Smeltz Dean Redmayne (2B) 0–22
B 20 Tony Anton Cam Wetzell (2B) 0–23
B 20 Tony Anton Scott Olla (1B) 0–24
B 20 Nikita Madgen Tony Anton (3B) 0–25
B 20 Nikita Madgen Nikita Madgen (HR) 0–26
B 20 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–27
B 20 Greg Jedinak Shane Bowen (2B) 0–28
B 23 Antonio Wesbrook Iain McCullum (1B) 0–29
B 26 Shane Bowen Ricardo Syph-Timmons (2B) 0–30
B 26 Shane Bowen Nikita Madgen (1B) 0–31
B 26 Aaron Arzani Shane Bowen (2B) 0–32
B 26 Greg Jedinak Aaron Arzani (1B) 0–33
T 16 Marco Vine Richard Hunt (3B) 1–33
T 19 Mark Anton Marco Vine (3B) 2–33
T 21 Rhyan Rowles Moises Rukavytsya (3B) 3–33
T 21 Rhyan Rowles Mark Anton (1B) 4–33
T 23 Marco Vine Rhyan Rowles (2B) 5–33
T 25 Rhys Goulding Marco Vine (3B) 6–33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Whitestone Pillai Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 328' · CF 409' · RF 344' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
328' 409' 344' Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft Cam Nayler — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +34° · 344 ft Rhys Goulding — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Richard Hunt — single · EV 85 mph · LA +12° · 121 ft Marco Vine — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 146 ft Cam Nayler — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +15° · 164 ft Rhyan Rowles — double · EV 99 mph · LA +16° · 203 ft Marco Vine — single · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Rhys Goulding — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
37 BIP· 10 1B · 14 XBH · 5 HR
328' 409' 344' Tony Anton — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 360 ft Nikita Madgen — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +38° · 465 ft Aaron Arzani — double · EV 107 mph · LA +22° · 314 ft Greg Jedinak — single · EV 85 mph · LA -5° · 81 ft Iain McCullum — double · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 361 ft Ish Smeltz — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +47° · 480 ft Scott Olla — single · EV 115 mph · LA -3° · 109 ft Shane Bowen — single · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft Ben Kerr — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +28° · 317 ft Antonio Wesbrook — double · EV 93 mph · LA +41° · 342 ft Taylor Foster — ground_out · EV 112 mph · LA +6° · 106 ft Tony Anton — single · EV 84 mph · LA +32° · 258 ft Greg Jedinak — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -19° · 69 ft Iain McCullum — line_out · EV 114 mph · LA +21° · 349 ft Dean Redmayne — single · EV 87 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft Ish Smeltz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Scott Olla — single · EV 94 mph · LA -3° · 90 ft Tony Anton — triple · EV 110 mph · LA +15° · 245 ft Nikita Madgen — fielders_choice · EV 71 mph · LA +6° · 68 ft Greg Jedinak — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Scott Olla — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +41° · 432 ft Robbie Sainsbury — double · EV 93 mph · LA +16° · 178 ft Aaron Arzani — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +36° · 414 ft Ish Smeltz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Shane Bowen — double · EV 90 mph · LA +22° · 221 ft Nikita Madgen — double · EV 104 mph · LA +22° · 302 ft Greg Jedinak — single · EV 103 mph · LA -9° · 98 ft Iain McCullum — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 413 ft Dean Redmayne — double · EV 90 mph · LA +11° · 125 ft Tony Anton — double · EV 100 mph · LA +35° · 376 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 114 mph · LA +8° · 109 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 109 mph · LA +17° · 270 ft Nikita Madgen — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +41° · 480 ft Greg Jedinak — single · EV 107 mph · LA +6° · 102 ft Iain McCullum — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA -10° · 65 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 95 mph · LA +7° · 91 ft Greg Jedinak — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 319 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sydney Border Force
2% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 7.5 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cam Nayler 96 / +34° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Cam Nayler 90 / +15° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Rhyan Rowles 99 / +16° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
Marco Vine 100 / +11° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Rhys Goulding 100 / -3° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Perth Smelters
98% deserve-to-win  ·  26.7 expected runs
actual 33 runs  ·  +6.3 vs expected
contact: 48.5 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 60.0 (+11.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 3 CS (-1.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Iain McCullum 114 / +21° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Scott Olla 109 / +17° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Tony Anton 110 / +15° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.59
Iain McCullum 119 / +23° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.28
Ben Kerr 98 / +28° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
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