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Oistins Mustangs 14, Aleksandrovsk Hawks 3                   2046-04-20 · #888
at Islame Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Aleksandrovsk           3      0    3    7    0
Oistins                14      0   14   11    0

ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kasatkina   lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nikoyan     3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Rudnev  pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Pogrebnyak  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Morozov ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Kravchuk    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Safin       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
Sulfsted    1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Pérez       cf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Carnell     rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Mondevi c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Madrigal    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kravchuk    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   3   7   1   0   0   1   2  11   0   1  0.233
  2B: Sulfsted (2).
  SB: Rudnev (1).
  GIDP: Mondevillin (1), Morozov (1).
  a-Ran for Nikoyan in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Pogrebnyak in the 6th.
  c-Entered at C in the 7th.

OISTINS MUSTANGS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Buster      lf ......    3   3   2   2   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Ozaki       1b ......    3   4   3   1   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Seol        c  ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.667
Teixeira    rf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.333
Sonobe      2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Myint       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Mollenhauer cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Tsendsuren  ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Heo         p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
LeBlancov   j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Hyndman     j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  14  11   7   0   1  14   7   8   0   1  0.344
  2B: Buster 2 (6), Ozaki (3), Seol 2 (3), Teixeira (2), Heo (1).
  HR: Ozaki (2), off Safin.
  SB: Buster (6), Seol (1), Teixeira (2).
  CS: Teixeira (2).
  HBP: LeBlancov (1).


ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Safin ...............     6    2   7%    2    2    2    1    0    1   21    -
Núñez ...............     6    4  15%    2    4    3    3    0    0   23  3-3
Bounedjah (L, 0-1) ..    15   11  41%    4    4    4    2    5    0   55  2-2
Yokuşlu .............    13   10  37%    3    4    4    1    3    0   46  2-2

OISTINS MUSTANGS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Heo (W, 4-1) ........    31   27 100%    6    3    3    2   11    0  116    -

  Batting order: Oistins Mustangs (home) batted first; Aleksandrovsk Hawks batted second.
  Seconds: AH o25 (3-14), OM1 o25 (14-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 71°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Humid. seed 957396.
  Walk-Back runs: off Núñez 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Satoshi Ozaki Lucas Buster (3B) 0–1
B 0 Satoshi Ozaki Satoshi Ozaki (HR) 0–2
B 0 Gleison Teixeira Satoshi Ozaki (3B) 0–3
B 0 Gleison Teixeira Dante LeBlancov (2B) 0–4
B 0 Gleison Teixeira Sung-ho Seol (1B) 0–5
B 4 Hyun-woo Heo Elliott Hyndman (2B) 0–6
B 4 Lucas Buster Bradley Mollenhauer (3B) 0–7
B 4 Lucas Buster Hyun-woo Heo (2B) 0–8
B 6 Joji Sonobe Lucas Buster (2B) 0–9
B 15 Sung-ho Seol Satoshi Ozaki (1B) 0–10
B 17 Elliott Hyndman Sung-ho Seol (3B) 0–11
B 18 Htun Myint Gleison Teixeira (3B) 0–12
B 22 Satoshi Ozaki Lucas Buster (2B) 0–13
B 24 Sung-ho Seol Satoshi Ozaki (3B) 0–14
T 14 Hugh Carnell Víctor Pérez (3B) 1–14
T 15 Sergei Morozov Víctor Pérez (3B) 2–14
T 18 Petr Kravchuk Hugh Carnell (3B) 3–14
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Islame Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 318' · CF 452' · RF 332' · 41' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Knothole Gates Flag Pole in Play
Aleksandrovsk Hawks — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
318' 452' 332' Wall 41' Kevin Madrigal — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 88 ft Whitney Sulfsted — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Mel Mondevillin — single · EV 55 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Víctor Pérez — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Pyotr Kasatkina — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Yury Kravchuk — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 136 ft Sergei Morozov — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -36° · 49 ft Whitney Sulfsted — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -0° · 72 ft Víctor Pérez — single · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Hugh Carnell — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 244 ft Teymuraz Nikoyan — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Sergei Morozov — single · EV 75 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Kevin Madrigal — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft Whitney Sulfsted — double · EV 92 mph · LA +47° · 337 ft Mel Mondevillin — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Víctor Pérez — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -7° · 87 ft Yury Kravchuk — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft
Oistins Mustangs — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 3 1B · 7 XBH · 1 HR
318' 452' 332' Wall 41' Lucas Buster — double · EV 107 mph · LA +38° · 445 ft Satoshi Ozaki — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +41° · 439 ft Gleison Teixeira — double · EV 106 mph · LA +28° · 373 ft Enkhbat Tsendsuren — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +40° · 457 ft Hyun-woo Heo — double · EV 96 mph · LA +33° · 335 ft Joji Sonobe — single · EV 91 mph · LA +20° · 211 ft Dante LeBlancov — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +36° · 276 ft Elliott Hyndman — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 82 ft Lucas Buster — double · EV 97 mph · LA +39° · 370 ft Gleison Teixeira — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 332 ft Satoshi Ozaki — single · EV 97 mph · LA -20° · 92 ft Sung-ho Seol — double · EV 104 mph · LA +17° · 245 ft Elliott Hyndman — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Htun Myint — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +25° · 145 ft Bradley Mollenhauer — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -15° · 80 ft Lucas Buster — line_out · EV 105 mph · LA +26° · 344 ft Hyun-woo Heo — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +30° · 274 ft Satoshi Ozaki — double · EV 97 mph · LA +11° · 138 ft Dante LeBlancov — single · EV 96 mph · LA +21° · 250 ft Sung-ho Seol — double · EV 104 mph · LA +26° · 339 ft Gleison Teixeira — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -5° · 87 ft Joji Sonobe — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -3° · 94 ft Htun Myint — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Aleksandrovsk Hawks
3% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 7.7 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Whitney Sulfsted 92 / +47° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
Teymuraz Nikoyan 76 / -2° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Yury Kravchuk 76 / +18° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Mel Mondevillin 55 / +13° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.55
Víctor Pérez 92 / -2° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Oistins Mustangs
97% deserve-to-win  ·  18.7 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -4.7 vs expected
contact: 30.1 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (-9.1 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Enkhbat Tsendsuren 108 / +40° Center Out 3.0 → 0 -3.01
Lucas Buster 105 / +26° Pull Out 2.1 → 0 -2.07
Gleison Teixeira 100 / +28° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Lucas Buster 107 / +38° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.01
Satoshi Ozaki 97 / +11° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
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