==============================================================================
Salvador BC 19, San Cristóbal Navy 8                         2046-04-18 · #787
at Coffin Yards
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
San Cristóbal           8      0    8   12    0
Salvador               19      -   19   16    0

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Yamamoto-Pe lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Scarpa      cf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Álvarez     ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Santos      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Frías   pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bautista    c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Solano      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Peralta pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Scarpa  ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Geraldo ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  e-Baptist ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Cronje  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Difo    pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Feliz       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Kemppi      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  31   8  12   4   0   0   8   5  12   0   0  0.387
  2B: Scarpa (5), Álvarez (1), Frías (2), Baptista (2).
  SB: Scarpa (4), Álvarez (1).
  CS: Scarpa (3), Cronje (2).
  HBP: Difo (1).
  GIDP: Scarpa (1).
  a-Ran for Santos in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Solano in the 5th.
  c-Batted in the 2nd.
  d-Batted in the 2nd.
  e-Doubled in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Scarpa in the 4th.

SALVADOR BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ynoa        3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.250
Soto        ss ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   5   0   1   0   0  0.500
Marte       lf ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   3   2   0   0   0  0.667
Monteiro    2b ......    4   2   3   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.750
Valdez      p  ......    5   4   3   0   1   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.600
Barros      1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Almeida     rf ......    4   3   3   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.750
Féliz       cf ......    2   4   1   0   0   1   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Mejía   c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Almonte     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Norman      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  35  19  16   5   1   3  18   7   7   0   0  0.457
  2B: Ynoa (4), Marte (13), Barros (2), Almeida 2 (2).
  3B: Valdez (1).
  HR: Soto (3), off Ynoa; Valdez (1), off Izidoro; Féliz (1), off Solano.
  SB: Marte (4), Monteiro (4).
  CS: Marte (4), Monteiro (2).
  HBP: Soto (2), Mejía (1).
  GIDP: Ynoa (1).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

SAN CRISTÓBAL NAVY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Solano ..............    12    9  33%    4    3    2    3    5    1   58    -
Moretti .............     6    4  15%    3    3    3    1    0    0   15  2-0
Paniagua ............     6    3  11%    3    3    3    0    0    0   22  1-1
Ynoa (L) ............     7    4  15%    2    4    4    1    1    1   19  1-1
Izidoro .............     7    2   7%    4    6    4    1    1    1   20  1-1
Adames ..............     5    4  15%    0    0    0    1    0    0   20  1-0

SALVADOR BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Valdez (W, 1-0) .....    24   15  56%    7    5    5    4    7    0   70    -
Valdez ..............    13   12  44%    5    3    3    1    5    0   65  3-2

  Batting order: Salvador BC (home) batted second; San Cristóbal Navy batted first.
  Seconds: SCN o26 (8-0), SB1 o26 (19-8).
  First pitch 5:45 PM. Weather: 83°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 489175.
  Walk-Back runs: off Solano 1, off Izidoro 2.
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 6 Simão Baptista Juan Álvarez (3B) 1–0
T 9 Riccardo Scarpa Manny Frías (3B) 2–0
T 11 Éder Scarpa Gary Cronje (2B) 3–0
T 12 Manny Frías Aramis Difo (2B) 4–0
T 14 Eulis Bautista Tuomas Kemppi (3B) 5–0
T 15 Riccardo Scarpa Manny Frías (3B) 6–0
T 15 Aramis Difo Orlando Peralta (3B) 7–0
T 16 Tuomas Kemppi Ketel Feliz (3B) 8–0
B 8 Ronald Féliz Ronald Féliz (HR) 8–1
B 9 Andrés Soto Ronald Féliz (3B) 8–2
B 9 Andrés Soto Wander Marte (2B) 8–3
B 13 Marquinhos Almeida Élan Valdez (3B) 8–4
B 13 Wander Marte Marquinhos Almeida (3B) 8–5
B 13 Wander Marte Ronald Féliz (2B) 8–6
B 16 Starlin Ynoa Wander Marte (2B) 8–7
B 16 Starlin Ynoa Afonso Monteiro (1B) 8–8
B 16 Élan Valdez Starlin Ynoa (2B) 8–9
B 17 Marquinhos Almeida Élan Valdez (1B) 8–10
B 20 Andrés Soto Marquinhos Almeida (2B) 8–11
B 20 Andrés Soto Ronald Féliz (1B) 8–12
B 20 Andrés Soto Andrés Soto (HR) 8–13
B 20 Starlin Ynoa Andrés Soto (3B) 8–14
B 21 Élan Valdez Afonso Monteiro (3B) 8–15
B 21 Élan Valdez Élan Valdez (HR) 8–16
B 21 Adrien Barros Élan Valdez (3B) 8–17
B 21 Marquinhos Almeida Adrien Barros (2B) 8–18
B 22 Wander Marte Marquinhos Almeida (2B) 8–19
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Coffin Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 304' · CF 403' · RF 334' · 39' wall). Short Porch (Left).
San Cristóbal Navy — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 8 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
304' 403' 334' Wall 39' Riccardo Scarpa — single · EV 86 mph · LA +14° · 140 ft Ketel Feliz — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 314 ft Juan Álvarez — double · EV 105 mph · LA +25° · 337 ft Simão Baptista — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 323 ft Manny Frías — double · EV 87 mph · LA +47° · 305 ft Gary Cronje — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Orlando Peralta — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Aramis Difo — single · EV 85 mph · LA +20° · 188 ft Riccardo Scarpa — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -1° · 57 ft Éder Scarpa — double · EV 95 mph · LA +36° · 342 ft Sadiel Geraldo — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -9° · 60 ft Eulis Bautista — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA -10° · 68 ft Ketel Feliz — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 124 ft Tuomas Kemppi — single · EV 83 mph · LA +23° · 198 ft Gary Cronje — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Sadiel Geraldo — single · EV 79 mph · LA +22° · 172 ft Riccardo Scarpa — single · EV 95 mph · LA +8° · 90 ft Ketel Feliz — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +49° · 355 ft
Salvador BC — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 7 1B · 6 XBH · 3 HR
304' 403' 334' Wall 39' Afonso Monteiro — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 118 ft Ronald Féliz — hr · EV 103 mph · LA +40° · 419 ft Adrien Barros — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +22° · 198 ft Wander Marte — single · EV 110 mph · LA +31° · 430 ft Andrés Soto — single · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 161 ft Afonso Monteiro — single · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 95 ft Starlin Ynoa — double_play · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 117 ft Élan Valdez — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +12° · 187 ft Marquinhos Almeida — single · EV 98 mph · LA -12° · 93 ft Adrien Barros — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 333 ft Bill Mejía — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 190 ft Andrés Soto — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +23° · 279 ft Afonso Monteiro — single · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 164 ft Starlin Ynoa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 290 ft Élan Valdez — single · EV 99 mph · LA +19° · 245 ft Marquinhos Almeida — double · EV 104 mph · LA +12° · 177 ft Adrien Barros — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 141 ft Wander Marte — double · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 128 ft Bill Mejía — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +39° · 316 ft Andrés Soto — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +32° · 480 ft Élan Valdez — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +30° · 439 ft Marquinhos Almeida — double · EV 101 mph · LA +24° · 309 ft Afonso Monteiro — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 394 ft Élan Valdez — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
San Cristóbal Navy
9% deserve-to-win  ·  6.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 11.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+4.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Manny Frías 87 / +47° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.37
Ketel Feliz 92 / +34° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Simão Baptista 92 / +36° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Eulis Bautista 72 / -10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Riccardo Scarpa 95 / +8° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Salvador BC
91% deserve-to-win  ·  20.5 expected runs
actual 19 runs  ·  -1.5 vs expected
contact: 33.4 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 32.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Afonso Monteiro 100 / +40° Oppo Out 2.0 → 0 -2.02
Élan Valdez 108 / +12° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.59
Ronald Féliz 103 / +40° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.51
Wander Marte 110 / +31° Center Single 2.4 → 1 -1.37
Andrés Soto 99 / +23° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →