==============================================================================
Perth Smelters 17, Sydney Border Force 5                     2046-04-17 · #780
at Whitestone Pillai Ground
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Sydney                  5      0    5    8    0
Perth                  17      0   17   20    0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Buffington  rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Crowe       cf ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Rowles      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rukavytsya  2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Blundell    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Rulli       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vine        ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Henry       p  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Nayler  c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hunt        j  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Anton       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   5   8   3   0   0   3   2   9   0   0  0.258
  2B: Hunt (4), Crowe (2), Henry (1).
  SB: Hunt (3).
  GIDP: Buffington (1), Anton (4).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brown       cf ......    4   3   2   1   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.500
Esson       2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Syph-Ti pr ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Bowen       3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Olla    pr ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Federici    c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Cumming pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Skilton     ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Wetzell pr ......    3   4   3   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Smeltz      lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Foster  pr ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Madgen  ph ......    5   1   4   0   0   0   3   0   1   1   0  0.800
  g-Arzani  ph ......    1   0   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   1   0  2.000
  h-Kerr    ph ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  i-Wesbroo pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-McCullu ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Olla        j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  0.667
Totals                  40  17  20   5   0   1  15   7   9   3   0  0.500
  2B: Brown (5), Bowen (4), Arzani (9), Wetzell (3), Syph-Timmons (3).
  HR: Brown (2), off Aroha.
  SB: Brown (1), Syph-Timmons (3).
  CS: Madgen (2).
  HBP: Wesbrook (2).
  a-Ran for Esson in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Bowen in the 1st.
  c-Ran for Federici in the 1st.
  d-Ran for Skilton in the 1st.
  e-Ran for Smeltz in the 1st.
  f-Batted in the 1st.
  g-Doubled in the 1st.
  h-Batted in the 1st.
  i-Ran for Arzani in the 1st.
  j-Struck out for Olla in the 9th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henry ...............     9    2   7%    5    3    3    3    1    0   27    -
Aroha (L, 0-2) ......    14    9  33%    6    6    6    2    2    1   55  1-0
Karačić .............    16   11  41%    5    3    2    1    3    0   49  1-1
Rowles ..............     9    5  19%    4    5    5    1    3    0   38  2-2

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Choibalsan ..........    16   11  41%    5    2    2    1    2    0   55    -
Scott (W, 1-0) ......    15   14  52%    3    2    2    1    6    0   42  2-1
Vanna ...............     2    2   7%    0    1    1    0    1    0    7  1-1

  Batting order: Perth Smelters (home) batted first; Sydney Border Force batted second.
  Seconds: SBF o26 (5-17), PS o26 (17-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM IRKT. Weather: 58°F · Wind in · Overcast · Light rain. seed 235640.
  Walk-Back runs: off Karačić 1.
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Aaron Arzani Pat Cummings (2B) 0–1
B 1 Aaron Arzani Adam Olla (3B) 0–2
B 1 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (2B) 0–3
B 3 Matt Esson Antonio Wesbrook (3B) 0–4
B 7 Nikita Madgen Cam Wetzell (3B) 0–5
B 7 Nikita Madgen Ricardo Syph-Timmons (3B) 0–6
B 10 Jordan Brown Cam Wetzell (2B) 0–7
B 10 Jordan Brown Ben Kerr (1B) 0–8
B 10 Jordan Brown Jordan Brown (HR) 0–9
B 12 Pat Cummings Jordan Brown (3B) 0–10
B 18 Jordan Brown Cam Wetzell (1B) 0–11
B 18 Scott Olla Jordan Brown (3B) 0–12
B 21 Cam Wetzell Ricardo Syph-Timmons (3B) 0–13
B 21 Cam Wetzell Adam Olla (1B) 0–14
B 24 Scott Olla Cam Wetzell (3B) 0–15
B 25 Pat Cummings Ben Kerr (3B) 0–16
B 26 Nikita Madgen Scott Olla (3B) 0–17
T 4 Richard Hunt Stefan Buffington (3B) 1–17
T 7 Ihaka Henry Doug Crowe (3B) 2–17
T 18 Cam Nayler Richard Hunt (3B) 3–17
T 19 Richard Hunt Ihaka Henry (3B) 4–17
T 25 Marco Vine Doug Crowe (3B) 5–17
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Whitestone Pillai Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 328' · CF 409' · RF 344' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
328' 409' 344' Stefan Buffington — single · EV 92 mph · LA -12° · 87 ft Doug Crowe — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 211 ft Cam Nayler — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Rhyan Rowles — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +4° · 89 ft Richard Hunt — single · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 130 ft Ihaka Henry — single · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 224 ft Stefan Buffington — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Mark Anton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Manuel Rulli — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Marco Vine — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Richard Hunt — double · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 329 ft Ihaka Henry — double · EV 108 mph · LA +12° · 183 ft Doug Crowe — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 136 ft Rhyan Rowles — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Moises Rukavytsya — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 126 ft Mark Anton — double_play · EV 85 mph · LA -5° · 81 ft Marco Vine — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -1° · 56 ft Stefan Buffington — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +22° · 273 ft
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
30 BIP· 13 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
328' 409' 344' Matt Esson — infield_single · EV 54 mph · LA -15° · 51 ft Shane Bowen — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 163 ft Nikita Madgen — single · EV 110 mph · LA +22° · 333 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 150 ft Jeet Skilton — single · EV 80 mph · LA +13° · 111 ft Jordan Brown — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +51° · 292 ft Adam Olla — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +14° · 196 ft Antonio Wesbrook — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +26° · 323 ft Cam Wetzell — single · EV 84 mph · LA +23° · 206 ft Aaron Arzani — double · EV 97 mph · LA +41° · 370 ft Nikita Madgen — single · EV 87 mph · LA +15° · 155 ft Ben Kerr — single · EV 83 mph · LA +15° · 138 ft Jordan Brown — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +50° · 469 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +34° · 333 ft Antonio Wesbrook — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 107 ft Cam Wetzell — single · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 204 ft Taylor Foster — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +11° · 98 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — double · EV 103 mph · LA +24° · 314 ft Nikita Madgen — single · EV 87 mph · LA +32° · 274 ft Nikita Madgen — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +28° · 262 ft Ben Kerr — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +47° · 187 ft Jordan Brown — double · EV 105 mph · LA +25° · 339 ft Scott Olla — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA +11° · 74 ft Adam Olla — single · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 100 ft Cam Wetzell — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 130 ft Taylor Foster — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 119 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +27° · 286 ft Ben Kerr — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Scott Olla — error · EV 92 mph · LA -15° · 87 ft Nikita Madgen — single · EV 106 mph · LA +1° · 100 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sydney Border Force
12% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 11.3 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-0.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stefan Buffington 99 / +22° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
Doug Crowe 92 / +19° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Richard Hunt 92 / +38° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Ihaka Henry 108 / +12° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.59
Stefan Buffington 92 / -12° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Perth Smelters
88% deserve-to-win  ·  16.0 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +1.0 vs expected
contact: 26.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jordan Brown 109 / +50° Pull Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.47
Scott Olla 95 / +34° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Antonio Wesbrook 101 / +26° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Adam Olla 101 / +14° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Shane Bowen 92 / +14° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →