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Perth Smelters 3, Brisbane Thunder 2                        2046-04-27 · #1193
at Billa Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Perth                   3    3    5    0
Brisbane                2    2    1    0

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Arzani      1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Choibalsan  p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Wesbroo nf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Foster  c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Syph-Ti rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Madgen  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Redmayn 2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Wetzell c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  g-McCullu c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Olla        j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  12   3   5   2   0   0   3   2   3   0   0  0.417
  2B: Wetzell (6), Arzani (15).
  SB: Wesbrook (1).
  CS: Arzani (8).
  a-Entered at NF in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at RF in the 4th.
  d-Entered at C in the 4th.
  e-Entered at 2B in the 9th.
  f-Entered at C in the 8th.
  g-Entered at C in the 9th.

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Collins     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Henry       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gorry       lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Ponce       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Daniels pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wagner      1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Brondel pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Gustavsson  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Buehning    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turner      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Ingles  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Rivera  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Bogut   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Paniagu ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Vukovic     j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Toumi       j  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Robinson    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   2   1   1   0   0   2   4   7   0   0  0.040
  2B: Toumi (8).
  SB: Robinson (4).
  HBP: Vukovic (2), Gorry (5).
  GIDP: Vukovic (2), Ingles (1).
  a-Ran for Ponce in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Wagner in the 2nd.
  c-Batted in the 2nd.
  d-Replaced Robinson at SS in the 6th.
  e-Grounded out in the 6th.
  f-Grounded out in the 9th.

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Choibalsan ..........     9    5  19%    1    2    2    1    3    0   35    -
Landale (W, 1-0) ....    15   18  67%    0    0    0    1    3    0   42  2-0
Vukona ..............     6    4  15%    0    0    0    2    1    0   27    -

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Turner (L, 0-3) .....    12    9  33%    3    2    2    2    3    0   50    -
Gregorius ...........     1    0   0%    1    1    1    0    0    0    5  2-1

  Batting order: Brisbane Thunder (home) batted first; Perth Smelters batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM VLAT. Weather: 64°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 973078.
  Powerplays: Perth Smelters — Wesbrook NF (O5)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 2 Anis Toumi Aaron Vukovic (1B) 0–1
B 4 Glenn Gustavsson David Gorry (2B) 0–2
T 7 Scott Olla Taylor Foster (3B) 1–2
T 8 Antonio Wesbrook Oyun-Erdene Choibalsan (3B) 2–2
T 9 Cam Wetzell Dean Redmayne (3B) 3–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 387' · CF 416' · RF 367' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Members' Pavilion
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Aaron Arzani — double · EV 104 mph · LA +12° · 178 ft Cam Wetzell — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +16° · 96 ft Iain McCullum — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +5° · 88 ft Oyun-Erdene Choibalsan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Antonio Wesbrook — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 241 ft Cam Wetzell — double · EV 92 mph · LA +43° · 338 ft
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 0 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Andrew Henry — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 297 ft Anis Toumi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +45° · 339 ft Glenn Gustavsson — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Andrej Ingles — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -27° · 72 ft Jameson Buehning — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Spencer Turner — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Aaron Vukovic — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Dyson Rivera — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Bruno Bogut — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 87 ft Edwin Paniagua — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Nathan Collins — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Andrew Henry — error · EV 52 mph · LA +3° · 49 ft Mark Robinson — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 289 ft Andrej Ingles — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Spencer Turner — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 256 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Mark Robinson — error · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 201 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Perth Smelters
21% deserve-to-win  ·  3.1 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 5.5 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cam Wetzell 92 / +43° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Aaron Arzani 104 / +12° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Cam Wetzell 76 / +19° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Ricardo Syph-Timmons 67 / +16° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Oyun-Erdene Choibalsan 76 / +10° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Brisbane Thunder
79% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -4.0 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-6.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Edwin Paniagua 92 / +40° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Mark Robinson 92 / +18° Oppo Reached on Error 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Andrew Henry 92 / +31° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Mark Robinson 92 / +29° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Spencer Turner 92 / +25° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
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