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Yagodnoye Sharks 9, Zaporizhzhia Boilermakers 7             2046-04-27 · #1192
at Starc Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Yagodnoye               9    9    7    0
Zaporizhzhia            7    7    9    0

YAGODNOYE SHARKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grebenyuk   lf ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Nembhardov  1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Efremova    c  ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Parker      cf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Goloviznina rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chalova     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Mukhin      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Panova      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Blinkova    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Aalto       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lapushchenk j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Fedorov     j  ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  24   9   7   3   1   1   7   2   9   0   1  0.292
  2B: Lapushchenkova (4), Parker (2), Fedorov (4).
  3B: Efremova (2).
  HR: Grebenyuk (1), off Machado.
  SB: Grebenyuk (4), Fedorov 2 (9), Chalova (2).
  CS: Chalova (3).
  HBP: Aalto (1), Parker (1).
  Squeeze: Nembhardov (1 RBI).


ZAPORIZHZHIA BOILERMAKERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goodling    ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Peña        c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
Meza        3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Graysonov   1b ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Figueroa    rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Smith       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Bartkowicz  lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Coffel      cf ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Machado     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Cota        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Soeda       j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.333
Belcher     j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  32   7   9   2   0   0   7   4   9   1   1  0.281
  2B: Peña (5), Coffel (1).
  HBP: Goodling (3).


YAGODNOYE SHARKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Blinkova (W, 2-3) ...    25   18  67%    6    5    5    3    7    0   88    -
Malinovskyi .........    12    9  33%    3    2    2    1    2    0   50  2-2

ZAPORIZHZHIA BOILERMAKERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Machado (L, 0-3) ....    16   11  41%    6    6    5    2    3    1   59    -
Graves ..............    12    9  33%    1    3    3    0    6    0   37  1-1

  Batting order: Zaporizhzhia Boilermakers (home) batted first; Yagodnoye Sharks batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 56°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 532939.
  Walk-Back runs: off Machado 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 7 Mark Machado Gerardo Cota (3B) 0–1
B 12 Yasufumi Soeda Harry Graysonov (3B) 0–2
B 17 Nasir Coffel Nasir Coffel (3B) 0–3
B 18 Tony Peña Harry Graysonov (3B) 0–4
B 18 Tony Peña Nasir Coffel (2B) 0–5
B 19 Harry Graysonov Owen Goodling (3B) 0–6
B 21 Jeyland Figueroa Tony Peña (3B) 0–7
T 0 Daler Grebenyuk Daler Grebenyuk (HR) 1–7
T 0 Avery Nembhardov Daler Grebenyuk (3B) 2–7
T 3 Jon Parker Ilia Fedorov (2B) 3–7
T 11 Anton Efremova Daler Grebenyuk (2B) 4–7
T 11 Ilia Fedorov Anton Efremova (3B) 5–7
T 11 Ilia Fedorov Mikhail Lapushchenkova (2B) 6–7
T 11 Jon Parker Ilia Fedorov (3B) 7–7
T 20 Mikhail Lapushchenkova Eemil Aalto (2B) 8–7
T 20 Mikhail Lapushchenkova Jon Parker (1B) 9–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Starc Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 377' · CF 443' · RF 351' · 13' wall). Cavernous.
Death Valley
Yagodnoye Sharks — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
377' 443' 351' Daler Grebenyuk — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +41° · 462 ft Anton Efremova — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +34° · 223 ft Mikhail Lapushchenkova — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +1° · 79 ft Jon Parker — double · EV 113 mph · LA +27° · 408 ft Vitaly Goloviznina — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 157 ft Taras Chalova — single · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 83 ft Evgeny Mukhin — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +26° · 297 ft Avery Nembhardov — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +34° · 204 ft Ilia Fedorov — double · EV 97 mph · LA +48° · 374 ft Daler Grebenyuk — single · EV 93 mph · LA +6° · 89 ft Anton Efremova — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 160 ft Philipp Blinkova — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 102 ft Avery Nembhardov — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +40° · 260 ft Mikhail Lapushchenkova — double · EV 101 mph · LA +33° · 374 ft
Zaporizhzhia Boilermakers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
377' 443' 351' Owen Goodling — infield_single · EV 62 mph · LA -6° · 59 ft Tony Peña — double · EV 92 mph · LA +41° · 335 ft Gerardo Cota — single · EV 52 mph · LA +16° · 60 ft Alex Belcher — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 134 ft Jam Smith — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft Nasir Coffel — double · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft Mark Machado — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 298 ft Harry Graysonov — error · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Gerardo Cota — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +33° · 99 ft Yasufumi Soeda — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 83 ft Kareem Bartkowicz — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +26° · 126 ft Nasir Coffel — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 183 ft Mark Machado — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Tony Peña — single · EV 84 mph · LA +19° · 177 ft Harry Meza — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 249 ft Gerardo Cota — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 172 ft Alex Belcher — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 154 ft Jeyland Figueroa — single · EV 53 mph · LA +7° · 51 ft Owen Goodling — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 207 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Yagodnoye Sharks
73% deserve-to-win  ·  9.0 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 16.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anton Efremova 96 / +13° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.82
Evgeny Mukhin 97 / +26° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Jon Parker 113 / +27° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.04
Vitaly Goloviznina 91 / +14° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Taras Chalova 88 / -12° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Zaporizhzhia Boilermakers
27% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.5 vs expected
contact: 9.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Nasir Coffel 76 / +48° Oppo Double 0.2 → 2 +1.84
Mark Machado 92 / +39° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Nasir Coffel 92 / +16° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Owen Goodling 62 / -6° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Alex Belcher 92 / +12° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
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