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Matanzas Tornados 23, Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths 10     2046-04-26 · #1163
at Copper Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Cienfuegos             10   10   12    0
Matanzas               23   23   22    0

CIENFUEGOS NORTHERN GOLDSMITHS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Difo        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Severin pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Firmino     2b ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Carusa      rf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Soto        3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Coronado    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Paniagua    p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Valenci j→ss ....    3   0   3   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Féliz   cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Ramos   cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Anderson    j  ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Rodríguez   j  ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  30  10  12   4   0   0  10   7   7   0   0  0.400
  2B: Anderson (11), Carusa (6), Rodríguez 2 (10).
  CS: Valencia (2).
  a-Ran for Difo in the 5th.
  b-Entered at J→SS (joker to field) in the 9th.
  c-Entered at CF in the 9th.
  d-Entered at CF in the 9th.

MATANZAS TORNADOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suero       lf ......    5   3   3   0   0   1   3   0   2   0   0  0.600
García      2b ......    3   3   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.667
Castillo    1b ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.250
Renner      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Falcao      rf ......    3   2   3   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Machís      3b ......    4   2   3   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.750
Coelho      c  ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Liriano     ss ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Feliz       p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Mendes      j  ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Paniagua    j  ......    4   1   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Park        j  ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  44  23  22   4   0   2  19   5  11   0   1  0.500
  2B: Machís (3), Paniagua 2 (12), Park (12).
  HR: Suero (5), off Coronado; Mendes (4), off Lacasse.
  SB: García 2 (7).
  CS: Suero (5), Falcao (2).
  GIDP: Liriano (1).


CIENFUEGOS NORTHERN GOLDSMITHS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Paniagua ............     5    1   4%    3    2    2    1    0    0   14    -
Lacasse .............     4    2   7%    1    4    4    1    2    1   19  2-2
Coronado ............     9    4  15%    4    6    4    1    1    1   41  1-1
Pirelli .............    12    6  22%    5    4    4    1    3    0   46  1-1
Báez (L, 1-2) .......    10    6  22%    5    6    6    1    2    0   28  3-2
Tatís ...............    10    8  30%    4    1    1    0    4    0   44  2-1

MATANZAS TORNADOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Feliz ...............     9    7  26%    3    1    1    0    3    0   28    -
Soto ................    15    8  30%    4    5    5    6    2    0   58  1-1
Hayashi (W) .........    10    8  30%    5    4    4    1    2    0   40  3-3
Kobayashi-Fer (F, 20)      3    4  15%    0    0    0    0    0    0    9  1-0

  Batting order: Matanzas Tornados (home) batted first; Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 68°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 989640.
  Walk-Back runs: off Coronado 2.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Chris Renner Welington García (2B) 0–1
B 1 Andy Falcao Vladimir Suero (3B) 0–2
B 1 Cristhian Machís Tony Castillo (3B) 0–3
B 3 Luís Mendes Andy Falcao (2B) 0–4
B 3 Luís Mendes Orlando Liriano (1B) 0–5
B 3 Luís Mendes Luís Mendes (HR) 0–6
B 3 Andrés Paniagua Luís Mendes (3B) 0–7
B 5 Vladimir Suero Andrés Feliz (1B) 0–8
B 5 Vladimir Suero Vladimir Suero (HR) 0–9
B 5 Tony Castillo Vladimir Suero (3B) 0–10
B 7 Cristhian Machís Welington García (3B) 0–11
B 7 Cristhian Machís Andy Falcao (1B) 0–12
B 7 Orlando Liriano Cristhian Machís (3B) 0–13
B 9 Ji-sung Park Rodrigo Coelho (3B) 0–14
B 12 Tony Castillo Orlando Liriano (3B) 0–15
B 13 Cristhian Machís Ji-sung Park (3B) 0–16
B 13 Rodrigo Coelho Tony Castillo (3B) 0–17
B 15 Andrés Paniagua Cristhian Machís (3B) 0–18
B 15 Ji-sung Park Rodrigo Coelho (3B) 0–19
B 15 Andrés Feliz Luís Mendes (3B) 0–20
B 16 Vladimir Suero Andrés Paniagua (3B) 0–21
B 19 Andy Falcao Ji-sung Park (3B) 0–22
B 20 Rodrigo Coelho Welington García (3B) 0–23
T 5 Otávio Firmino Ronan Carusa (3B) 1–23
T 9 Rory Anderson Otávio Firmino (2B) 2–23
T 10 Ronan Carusa Juan Rodríguez (2B) 3–23
T 12 Otávio Firmino Ronan Carusa (3B) 4–23
T 12 James Coronado Wandy Soto (3B) 5–23
T 14 Domingo Féliz Fernando Severino (3B) 6–23
T 16 Juan Rodríguez Otávio Firmino (3B) 7–23
T 16 Juan Rodríguez James Coronado (2B) 8–23
T 16 Moisés Valencia Juan Rodríguez (2B) 9–23
T 17 Fernando Severino Domingo Féliz (3B) 10–23
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Copper Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 347' · CF 416' · RF 336' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 8 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
347' 416' 336' Domingo Féliz — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -12° · 60 ft Ronan Carusa — single · EV 90 mph · LA +18° · 194 ft Juan Rodríguez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Moisés Valencia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft Otávio Firmino — single · EV 79 mph · LA -7° · 75 ft James Coronado — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 77 ft Juan Ramos — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Eulis Paniagua — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 326 ft Fernando Severino — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 218 ft Rory Anderson — double · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 256 ft Juan Rodríguez — double · EV 94 mph · LA +36° · 338 ft Ronan Carusa — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 136 ft Moisés Valencia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Otávio Firmino — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Domingo Féliz — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 186 ft Juan Rodríguez — double · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Moisés Valencia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Eulis Paniagua — single · EV 82 mph · LA +15° · 130 ft Rory Anderson — single · EV 84 mph · LA -24° · 80 ft Juan Rodríguez — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft
Matanzas Tornados — Batted Balls
31 BIP· 16 1B · 4 XBH · 2 HR
347' 416' 336' Vladimir Suero — single · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Welington García — single · EV 78 mph · LA +22° · 165 ft Chris Renner — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Andy Falcao — single · EV 97 mph · LA +23° · 268 ft Luís Mendes — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 324 ft Andrés Paniagua — double · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 297 ft Andrés Feliz — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -0° · 72 ft Orlando Liriano — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 165 ft Vladimir Suero — hr · EV 95 mph · LA +47° · 362 ft Chris Renner — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +27° · 207 ft Andy Falcao — single · EV 78 mph · LA +18° · 139 ft Cristhian Machís — double · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 178 ft Rodrigo Coelho — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 94 ft Luís Mendes — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Andrés Paniagua — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +55° · 189 ft Ji-sung Park — double · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 198 ft Tony Castillo — single · EV 96 mph · LA +1° · 91 ft Orlando Liriano — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +18° · 146 ft Chris Renner — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -7° · 58 ft Cristhian Machís — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 161 ft Rodrigo Coelho — single · EV 56 mph · LA +2° · 54 ft Luís Mendes — single · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Andrés Paniagua — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 119 ft Andy Falcao — single · EV 80 mph · LA +24° · 190 ft Orlando Liriano — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +9° · 77 ft Ji-sung Park — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Welington García — single · EV 64 mph · LA +18° · 95 ft Vladimir Suero — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Chris Renner — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +44° · 198 ft Cristhian Machís — single · EV 84 mph · LA +26° · 219 ft Andrés Paniagua — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 322 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths
37% deserve-to-win  ·  8.2 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 11.9 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+4.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rory Anderson 92 / +24° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Ronan Carusa 92 / +12° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Eulis Paniagua 93 / +35° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Juan Rodríguez 94 / +36° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Juan Rodríguez 92 / +39° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Matanzas Tornados
63% deserve-to-win  ·  10.6 expected runs
actual 23 runs  ·  +12.4 vs expected
contact: 19.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 32.0 (+12.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Luís Mendes 92 / +36° Oppo Home Run 1.0 → 4 +2.97
Vladimir Suero 95 / +47° Oppo Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.05
Andrés Paniagua 92 / +31° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Cristhian Machís 93 / +15° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Ji-sung Park 92 / +18° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
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