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Perth Smelters 11, Brisbane Thunder 8                       2046-04-26 · #1147
at Billa Bowl
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Perth                  11      0   11   15    0
Brisbane                8      0    8    7    0

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Arzani      1b ......    5   0   4   2   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  0.800
Anton       ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Cumming pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Esson       3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Olla    pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Jedinak     rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Redmayne    2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Hadlee      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Skilton pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
Smeltz      lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Cumming pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  e-Madgen  ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
  f-Wetzell ph ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
  g-Syph-Ti pr ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Olla        j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  35  11  15   5   0   0  10   4  11   1   1  0.429
  2B: Arzani 2 (14), Wetzell (5), Syph-Timmons (4), Cummings (1).
  SB: Cummings (2).
  CS: Arzani (7).
  HBP: Anton (2).
  a-Ran for Anton in the 1st.
  b-Ran for Esson in the 1st.
  c-Ran for Hadlee in the 2nd.
  d-Ran for Smeltz in the 2nd.
  e-Batted in the 1st.
  f-Batted in the 1st.
  g-Ran in the 2nd.

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hsia        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Gauci   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Paniagua    c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Ingles  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ponce       rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Wagner      2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Gustavsson  3b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Clegg       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Puhi        cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Bowen       p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  c-Brondel pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Morgan  c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Gorry   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Toumi       j  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Vukovic     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Robinson    j  ......    2   3   2   0   0   1   3   2   0   1   0  1.000
Totals                  29   8   7   2   0   1   5   9  13   1   0  0.241
  2B: Toumi (7), Gustavsson (4).
  HR: Robinson (1), off Hadlee.
  SB: Wagner (4), Gustavsson (3), Puhi (4).
  a-Grounded out for Hsia in the 7th.
  b-Walked for Paniagua in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Bowen in the 7th.
  d-Entered at C in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Ingles in the 7th.

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hadlee (W, 4-0) .....    21   16  59%    3    4    3    3    8    1   84    -
Scott ...............     8    5  19%    2    3    3    3    3    0   34  1-0
Rangihau (F, 6) .....     9    6  22%    2    1    1    3    2    0   31  1-0

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen ...............    10    4  15%    4    2    2    2    0    0   37    -
Vukona ..............     5    2   7%    2    3    3    1    0    0   17  3-2
Kewell (L, 0-1) .....    11   11  41%    5    4    4    0    4    0   51  3-1
Rodriguez ...........    13   10  37%    3    2    2    1    7    0   55  1-1

  Batting order: Brisbane Thunder (home) batted second; Perth Smelters batted first.
  Seconds: PS o26 (11-0), BT o26 (8-11).
  First pitch 5:45 PM VLAT. Weather: 61°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 355008.
  Walk-Back runs: off Hadlee 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Matt Esson Pat Cummings (3B) 1–0
T 3 Jacob Hadlee Nikita Madgen (3B) 2–0
T 3 Ish Smeltz Adam Olla (3B) 3–0
T 5 Pat Cummings Ricardo Syph-Timmons (3B) 4–0
T 5 Nikita Madgen Jeet Skilton (3B) 5–0
T 10 Jeet Skilton Pat Cummings (3B) 6–0
T 11 Aaron Arzani Ricardo Syph-Timmons (3B) 7–0
T 11 Aaron Arzani Jack Cummings (3B) 8–0
T 16 Cam Wetzell Ricardo Syph-Timmons (2B) 9–0
T 16 Jack Cummings Cam Wetzell (3B) 10–0
T 17 Aaron Arzani Dean Redmayne (3B) 11–0
B 4 Mark Robinson Mark Robinson (HR) 11–1
B 4 Casey Wagner Mark Robinson (3B) 11–2
B 8 Marino Bowen Glenn Gustavsson (3B) 11–3
B 15 Casey Wagner Marino Bowen (2B) 11–4
B 19 Mark Robinson Mika Puhi (3B) 11–5
B 19 Mark Robinson Fran Brondello (2B) 11–6
B 20 Anis Toumi Mark Robinson (1B) 11–7
B 25 Mika Puhi David Gorry (3B) 11–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 387' · CF 416' · RF 367' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Members' Pavilion
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 8 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Aaron Arzani — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 222 ft Matt Esson — single · EV 81 mph · LA +17° · 150 ft Cam Wetzell — line_out · EV 71 mph · LA +19° · 124 ft Jacob Hadlee — single · EV 65 mph · LA +11° · 64 ft Ish Smeltz — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +35° · 273 ft Nikita Madgen — single · EV 96 mph · LA +9° · 115 ft Adam Olla — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 308 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — single · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 91 ft Jack Cummings — double · EV 97 mph · LA +22° · 260 ft Jeet Skilton — single · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 120 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — double · EV 86 mph · LA +26° · 237 ft Jeet Skilton — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 277 ft Jack Cummings — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 189 ft Aaron Arzani — error · EV 79 mph · LA +11° · 93 ft Cam Wetzell — double · EV 95 mph · LA +30° · 315 ft Dean Redmayne — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 149 ft Aaron Arzani — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 164 ft Aaron Arzani — double · EV 93 mph · LA +25° · 265 ft Aaron Arzani — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 218 ft
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
387' 416' 367' Aaron Vukovic — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +4° · 71 ft Henry Ponce — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -7° · 73 ft Mark Robinson — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Glenn Gustavsson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 248 ft Luc Gauci — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +2° · 75 ft Mark Robinson — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Edwin Paniagua — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -13° · 67 ft Casey Wagner — single · EV 82 mph · LA +15° · 134 ft Mika Puhi — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Anis Toumi — double · EV 110 mph · LA +27° · 391 ft Mark Robinson — single · EV 83 mph · LA -1° · 79 ft Henry Ponce — infield_single · EV 60 mph · LA -4° · 57 ft Mika Puhi — single · EV 118 mph · LA +3° · 112 ft Glenn Morgan — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -9° · 61 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Perth Smelters
50% deserve-to-win  ·  9.3 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 15.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (+3.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ricardo Syph-Timmons 86 / +26° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.61
Aaron Arzani 100 / +12° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Aaron Arzani 93 / +25° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Adam Olla 92 / +33° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Cam Wetzell 95 / +30° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Brisbane Thunder
50% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 11.6 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+0.4 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Henry Ponce 60 / -4° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Mark Robinson 83 / -1° Oppo Stay 0.4 → 1 +0.64
Glenn Gustavsson 100 / +19° Oppo Double 1.5 → 2 +0.46
Mark Robinson 88 / +3° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.43
Mika Puhi 88 / -10° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.43
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