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Seville Continental Garage 21, Zagreb Miners 18              2046-04-21 · #932
at The Wedge
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                        1    R    H    E
Zagreb                 18   18   10    0
Seville                21   21   16    1

ZAGREB MINERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Diouf       cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.250
Larentzakis lf ......    3   5   3   1   0   1   5   2   1   1   0  1.000
Earls       1b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   1   0   0  0.000
Ambri       ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
Khelifi     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Žorić       rf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Mazza       3b ......    4   3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Vogelov     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   2  0.000
  a-Hakimi  c  ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
Burley      j  ......    3   3   1   0   0   0   2   2   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  32  18  10   2   0   1  15  10   7   2   2  0.312
  2B: Diouf (4), Larentzakis (11).
  HR: Larentzakis (6), off Bonfantini.
  SB: Hakimi (1).
  HBP: Ambri (1).
  GIDP: Ambri (3).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

SEVILLE CONTINENTAL GARAGE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lange       lf ......    4   4   2   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Nagelsmann  ss ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Obst    pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Šporar      c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.250
Brook       cf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Ferhat      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.333
  b-Benite  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Carmona     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
  c-Yogeswa pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sané        2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
Parra       3b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Bonfantini  p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.333
Saidi       j  ......    1   3   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Tyler       j  ......    2   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  1.000
Greggi      j  ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  39  21  16   5   0   1  20   7   7   1   1  0.410
  2B: Nagelsmann 2 (9), Parra (7), Bonfantini (4), Greggi (3).
  HR: Lange (5), off Vogelov.
  SB: Brook (2).
  CS: Brook (3).
  E: Nagelsmann (2).
  HBP: Lange (3).
  a-Ran for Nagelsmann in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Ferhat in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Carmona in the 9th.

ZAGREB MINERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Vogelov .............    14    8  30%    6    6    5    2    2    1   48    -
Saiss ...............    15   12  44%    1    3    3    2    5    0   71  2-2
Benatia (L, 0-1) ....    13    4  15%    7    8    8    3    0    0   53  2-2
Hartmann ............     5    3  11%    2    4    4    0    0    0   10  3-3

SEVILLE CONTINENTAL GARAGE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bonfantini ..........    18   11  41%    5   10    4    5    1    1   75    -
Lambrou (W, 1-0) ....    17   12  44%    4    5    4    1    6    0   63  1-1
Mahfouz (F, 4) ......     7    4  15%    1    3    3    4    0    0   33  1-1

  Batting order: Seville Continental Garage (home) batted first; Zagreb Miners batted second.
  First pitch 8:10 PM GMT. Weather: 81°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 856407.
  Walk-Back runs: off Vogelov 1, off Lambrou 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Robert Lange Robert Lange (HR) 0–1
B 0 Alan Nagelsmann Robert Lange (3B) 0–2
B 1 Amayas Ferhat Alan Nagelsmann (3B) 0–3
B 8 Aljaž Šporar Robert Lange (3B) 0–4
B 8 Jarell Brook Erik Obst (3B) 0–5
B 8 Jarell Brook Mustapha Saidi (3B) 0–6
B 12 Nicola Bonfantini Aljaž Šporar (3B) 0–7
B 12 Robert Lange Jarell Brook (3B) 0–8
B 18 Roman Sané Nicola Bonfantini (2B) 0–9
B 20 Stefano Greggi Gijs Parra (3B) 0–10
B 21 Robert Lange Mustapha Saidi (3B) 0–11
B 22 Aljaž Šporar Jakarrion Tyler (3B) 0–12
B 23 Amayas Ferhat Stefano Greggi (3B) 0–13
B 24 Roman Sané Robert Lange (3B) 0–14
B 24 Gijs Parra Sérgio Benite (3B) 0–15
B 24 Mustapha Saidi Sivanesan Yogeswaran (3B) 0–16
B 24 Jakarrion Tyler Roman Sané (3B) 0–17
B 24 Stefano Greggi Gijs Parra (3B) 0–18
B 24 Stefano Greggi Jakarrion Tyler (1B) 0–19
B 24 Nicola Bonfantini Mustapha Saidi (3B) 0–20
B 24 Nicola Bonfantini Stefano Greggi (2B) 0–21
T 0 Rachid Hakimi Panagiotis Larentzakis (3B) 1–21
T 2 Ilyes Khelifi Geoff Burley (2B) 2–21
T 4 Adrian Vogelov Rachid Hakimi (3B) 3–21
T 5 Panagiotis Larentzakis Emir Žorić (3B) 4–21
T 7 Geoff Burley Gianluca Mazza (3B) 5–21
T 8 Vincenzo Diouf Geoff Burley (3B) 6–21
T 8 Vincenzo Diouf Rachid Hakimi (2B) 7–21
T 11 Panagiotis Larentzakis Vincenzo Diouf (3B) 8–21
T 11 Panagiotis Larentzakis Gianluca Mazza (2B) 9–21
T 11 Panagiotis Larentzakis Panagiotis Larentzakis (HR) 10–21
T 12 Rachid Hakimi Panagiotis Larentzakis (3B) 11–21
T 18 Panagiotis Larentzakis Emir Žorić (3B) 12–21
T 19 Geoff Burley Gianluca Mazza (3B) 13–21
T 21 Vincenzo Diouf Geoff Burley (2B) 14–21
T 22 Emir Žorić Panagiotis Larentzakis (3B) 15–21
T 25 Geoff Burley Hélio Ambri (3B) 16–21
T 25 Rachid Hakimi Panagiotis Larentzakis (3B) 17–21
T 25 Hélio Ambri Peter Earls (3B) 18–21
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Wedge's actual outfield dimensions (LF 348' · CF 419' · RF 309' · 14' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Zagreb Miners — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
348' 419' 309' Wall 14' Rachid Hakimi — fielders_choice · EV 96 mph · LA -6° · 91 ft Ilyes Khelifi — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -12° · 85 ft Vincenzo Diouf — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -11° · 67 ft Gianluca Mazza — single · EV 84 mph · LA +18° · 167 ft Panagiotis Larentzakis — single · EV 83 mph · LA +2° · 78 ft Geoff Burley — error · EV 89 mph · LA +24° · 238 ft Emir Žorić — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Hélio Ambri — single · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 261 ft Vincenzo Diouf — double · EV 98 mph · LA +43° · 386 ft Gianluca Mazza — fielders_choice · EV 99 mph · LA +8° · 94 ft Panagiotis Larentzakis — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +40° · 455 ft Emir Žorić — single · EV 99 mph · LA +8° · 110 ft Adrian Vogelov — line_out · EV 106 mph · LA +18° · 266 ft Ilyes Khelifi — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -1° · 81 ft Vincenzo Diouf — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +46° · 232 ft Gianluca Mazza — single · EV 71 mph · LA -8° · 68 ft Panagiotis Larentzakis — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 382 ft Geoff Burley — single · EV 87 mph · LA +22° · 216 ft Emir Žorić — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -10° · 63 ft Vincenzo Diouf — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -6° · 57 ft Gianluca Mazza — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +22° · 192 ft Hélio Ambri — single · EV 80 mph · LA +20° · 164 ft Hélio Ambri — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -11° · 66 ft
Seville Continental Garage — Batted Balls
30 BIP· 10 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
348' 419' 309' Wall 14' Robert Lange — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +36° · 412 ft Alan Nagelsmann — double · EV 117 mph · LA +14° · 261 ft Aljaž Šporar — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 114 ft Jarell Brook — single · EV 81 mph · LA -22° · 77 ft Roman Sané — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +2° · 63 ft Gijs Parra — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 129 ft Jakarrion Tyler — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +18° · 105 ft Erik Obst — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 245 ft Mustapha Saidi — fielders_choice · EV 57 mph · LA +6° · 54 ft Robert Lange — single · EV 88 mph · LA -0° · 84 ft Alan Nagelsmann — double · EV 96 mph · LA +11° · 133 ft Jarell Brook — single · EV 98 mph · LA +2° · 93 ft Gijs Parra — double · EV 98 mph · LA +33° · 347 ft Jakarrion Tyler — single · EV 60 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Stefano Greggi — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Nicola Bonfantini — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 79 ft Erik Obst — line_out · EV 57 mph · LA +23° · 95 ft Robert Lange — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA +5° · 82 ft Jarell Brook — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +33° · 229 ft Roman Sané — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Aljaž Šporar — single · EV 85 mph · LA -10° · 80 ft Amayas Ferhat — single · EV 58 mph · LA -3° · 55 ft Gijs Parra — single · EV 80 mph · LA +13° · 110 ft Jakarrion Tyler — single · EV 91 mph · LA +12° · 130 ft Stefano Greggi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 219 ft Nicola Bonfantini — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 172 ft Jarell Brook — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +29° · 201 ft Roman Sané — single · EV 78 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Robert Lange — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +16° · 88 ft Aljaž Šporar — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +25° · 204 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Zagreb Miners
56% deserve-to-win  ·  14.8 expected runs
actual 18 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 17.5 est bases + 11 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-2.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Adrian Vogelov 106 / +18° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.58
Panagiotis Larentzakis 108 / +40° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.99
Geoff Burley 89 / +24° Center Reached on Error 0.8 → 0 -0.80
Gianluca Mazza 71 / -8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Gianluca Mazza 84 / +22° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.72
Seville Continental Garage
44% deserve-to-win  ·  13.1 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +7.9 vs expected
contact: 18.8 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (+5.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Robert Lange 104 / +36° Center Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.98
Nicola Bonfantini 92 / +15° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Erik Obst 92 / +23° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Stefano Greggi 92 / +20° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Amayas Ferhat 58 / -3° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
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