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Thessaloniki Police 17, Mbarara Hounds 16                    2046-04-20 · #916
at Iron Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Mbarara                16   16   18    0
Thessaloniki           17   17   11    0

MBARARA HOUNDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Eledge      cf ......    4   4   4   2   1   0   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Carr        rf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Browne      3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  0.333
Torreira    1b ......    1   3   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Hall        lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  0.500
Robinette   2b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  0.667
Suárez      c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Mesa        ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Edmonds     p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   2  0.500
Eaton       j  ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.750
Jones       j  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Totals                  33  16  18   9   1   0  16   5   6   2   2  0.545
  2B: Eledge 2 (10), Carr (4), Browne (7), Eaton 2 (11), Hall (3), Robinette (1), Edmonds (1).
  3B: Eledge (1).
  SB: Carr (2), Eaton (2).
  CS: Carr (3), Torreira (1), Robinette (1).
  HBP: Carr (4), Torreira (2), Robinette (1), Mesa (1).


THESSALONIKI POLICE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gourriel    1b ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Bautista    cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Cure        lf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Brawley     ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rainey      rf ......    3   3   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Alarcón     c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Marte   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Wiggins     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Zator       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Langenf ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Couts   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Leverin ss ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Suero       j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Watley      j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Santiago    j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30  17  11   5   0   1  16   9  10   0   0  0.367
  2B: Bautista (7), Suero (2), Levering (12), Cure (4), Watley (5).
  HR: Alarcón (2), off Edmonds.
  SB: Suero (2), Rainey 3 (6), Watley (4).
  CS: Levering (2).
  HBP: Gourriel (1), Brawley (1), Alarcón (1).
  a-Ran for Alarcón in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out for Zator in the 6th.
  c-Singled for Suero in the 9th.
  d-Entered at SS in the 7th.

MBARARA HOUNDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Edmonds (L, 2-1) ....    18   10  37%    6    9    8    4    3    1   68    -
Pérez ...............    17   12  44%    3    4    4    4    5    0   57    -
Céspedes ............     7    3  11%    2    4    4    1    2    0   26  1-1

THESSALONIKI POLICE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Zator ...............    15    7  26%    7    8    8    1    1    0   46    -
Boehme ..............     8    5  19%    7    4    4    1    0    0   36  1-1
Ramón (W, 2-0) ......    16   12  44%    4    4    4    3    4    0   72  1-1
Overby ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    1    0   11  1-0

  Batting order: Thessaloniki Police (home) batted second; Mbarara Hounds batted first.
  First pitch 8:10 PM. Weather: 65°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 578068.
  Walk-Back runs: off Edmonds 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 0 Norris Browne Steve Eledge (3B) 1–0
T 1 Hal Eaton Chad Carr (2B) 2–0
T 3 Derrick Robinette Hal Eaton (3B) 3–0
T 4 Ross Edmonds Armando Torreira (3B) 4–0
T 5 Steve Eledge Derrick Robinette (3B) 5–0
T 5 Steve Eledge Wilmer Suárez (2B) 6–0
T 7 Andy Hall Steve Eledge (3B) 7–0
T 7 Andy Hall Armando Torreira (1B) 8–0
T 7 Hal Eaton Andy Hall (3B) 9–0
T 8 Derrick Robinette Hal Eaton (3B) 10–0
T 11 Steve Eledge Leonys Mesa (2B) 11–0
T 11 Norris Browne Steve Eledge (3B) 12–0
T 12 Hal Eaton Norris Browne (3B) 13–0
T 12 Hal Eaton Armando Torreira (2B) 14–0
T 18 Steve Eledge Ross Edmonds (2B) 15–0
T 18 Chad Carr Steve Eledge (2B) 16–0
B 2 Kendrys Gourriel Ángel Bautista (2B) 16–1
B 2 Liona Rainey Kendrys Gourriel (2B) 16–2
B 3 Russell Watley Dave Brawley (3B) 16–3
B 6 Jacob Levering Liona Rainey (3B) 16–4
B 9 Leonys Alarcón Jacob Levering (3B) 16–5
B 9 Leonys Alarcón Tristan Cure (2B) 16–6
B 9 Leonys Alarcón Kendrys Gourriel (1B) 16–7
B 9 Leonys Alarcón Leonys Alarcón (HR) 16–8
B 9 Joe Wiggins Leonys Alarcón (3B) 16–9
B 11 Tristan Cure Jacob Levering (1B) 16–10
B 11 Dave Brawley Tristan Cure (3B) 16–11
B 16 Russell Watley Liona Rainey (3B) 16–12
B 16 Russell Watley Nicholas Santiago (1B) 16–13
B 24 Hanley Suero Russell Watley (3B) 16–14
B 24 Hanley Suero Liona Rainey (3B) 16–15
B 24 Hanley Suero Dagoberto Marte (2B) 16–16
B 25 Cecil Couts Hanley Suero (3B) 16–17
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Iron Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 370' · CF 477' · RF 365' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Crow's Nest Death Valley The Crater
Mbarara Hounds — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 8 1B · 10 XBH · 0 HR
370' 477' 365' Steve Eledge — single · EV 98 mph · LA +28° · 315 ft Norris Browne — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +52° · 342 ft Hal Eaton — single · EV 108 mph · LA +29° · 395 ft Armando Torreira — single · EV 87 mph · LA +23° · 219 ft Andy Hall — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +23° · 183 ft Derrick Robinette — single · EV 90 mph · LA +31° · 288 ft Wilmer Suárez — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 99 ft Chad Carr — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +30° · 248 ft Ross Edmonds — double · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 340 ft Derrick Robinette — double · EV 102 mph · LA +34° · 389 ft Steve Eledge — triple · EV 110 mph · LA +23° · 342 ft Norris Browne — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +23° · 261 ft Andy Hall — double · EV 102 mph · LA +24° · 307 ft Hal Eaton — double · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 252 ft Sion Jones — single · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 356 ft Wilmer Suárez — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Leonys Mesa — single · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 351 ft Chad Carr — single · EV 89 mph · LA -11° · 85 ft Derrick Robinette — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +8° · 105 ft Ross Edmonds — fly_out · EV 75 mph · LA +55° · 210 ft Steve Eledge — double · EV 104 mph · LA +13° · 194 ft Norris Browne — double · EV 94 mph · LA +36° · 335 ft Hal Eaton — double · EV 103 mph · LA +28° · 353 ft Sion Jones — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +41° · 336 ft Chad Carr — double · EV 106 mph · LA +33° · 404 ft Steve Eledge — double · EV 94 mph · LA +19° · 216 ft Hal Eaton — fly_out · EV 104 mph · LA +28° · 365 ft
Thessaloniki Police — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
370' 477' 365' Jacob Levering — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 292 ft Tristan Cure — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +37° · 372 ft Ángel Bautista — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 255 ft Kendrys Gourriel — single · EV 77 mph · LA +17° · 133 ft Liona Rainey — single · EV 99 mph · LA +24° · 286 ft Leonys Alarcón — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +30° · 480 ft Russell Watley — double · EV 99 mph · LA +17° · 216 ft Anthony Langenfeld — fly_out · EV 113 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Cecil Couts — single · EV 70 mph · LA +12° · 77 ft Jacob Levering — single · EV 112 mph · LA +3° · 106 ft Ángel Bautista — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +46° · 237 ft Joe Wiggins — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +27° · 333 ft Tristan Cure — double · EV 119 mph · LA +30° · 480 ft Dave Brawley — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 344 ft Hanley Suero — double · EV 90 mph · LA +21° · 212 ft Liona Rainey — single · EV 89 mph · LA +22° · 223 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Mbarara Hounds
54% deserve-to-win  ·  19.4 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  -3.4 vs expected
contact: 31.7 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (-3.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 3 CS (-1.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hal Eaton 104 / +28° Pull Out 2.1 → 0 -2.07
Hal Eaton 108 / +29° Pull Single 2.4 → 1 -1.37
Steve Eledge 110 / +23° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.32
Hal Eaton 92 / +24° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Sion Jones 92 / +41° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Thessaloniki Police
46% deserve-to-win  ·  17.9 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 23.7 est bases + 12 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (-4.7 on contact)
running: 5 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anthony Langenfeld 113 / +36° Pull Out 3.8 → 0 -3.81
Tristan Cure 98 / +37° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Joe Wiggins 101 / +27° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Dave Brawley 100 / +30° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Leonys Alarcón 119 / +30° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.03
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