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Ussuri Police 12, Sydney Universal Tile Works 11             2046-04-20 · #896
at Lane Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Ussuri                 12   12    9    1
Sydney                 11   11    6    0

USSURI POLICE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Coates      ss ......    2   3   2   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Efremova    rf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cortez      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Taylorov    c  ......    2   2   2   1   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Baxter      1b ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Kulikovskay lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Marfutina   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Zhai        p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Hurtado c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Yahya       j  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Huerta      j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Danilina    j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  15  12   9   3   0   2  12   3   3   0   0  0.600
  2B: Taylorov (13), Yahya (11), Huerta (6).
  HR: Coates (7), off Washington; Taylorov (5), off Jones.
  E: Coates (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

SYDNEY UNIVERSAL TILE WORKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lavrusky    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Correia     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Antoine ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Mendes      lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Mahfouz pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Hassan      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Katongo ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Behardien   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Washington  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Barth   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Toumi   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Suhail  ph ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   5   0   0   0   0  0.667
  g-Ati-Zig pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Nuamah  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  i-Stewart ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  j-Sambiss cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  k-Starkie ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  l-Habte   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Mwaikenda   j  ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Patel       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Popp        j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29  11   6   2   0   1  11  10  13   0   0  0.207
  2B: Mwaikenda 2 (11).
  HR: Suhail (4), off Zhai.
  SB: Mahfouz (6).
  CS: Mahfouz (2), Ati-Zigi (3).
  HBP: Popp (2).
  a-Batted for Correia in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Mendes in the 1st.
  c-Replaced Hassan at SS in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Washington in the 7th.
  e-Walked in the 2nd.
  f-Batted in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Toumi in the 3rd.
  h-Batted in the 3rd.
  i-Batted in the 3rd.
  j-Replaced Mahfouz at CF in the 7th.
  k-Walked in the 8th.
  l-Ran in the 8th.

USSURI POLICE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Zhai ................     8    6  22%    2    3    3    1    2    1   27    -
Kuznetsova (W, 2-0) .    15   12  44%    1    2    1    5    7    0   59  1-1
Enterlinin ..........    10    6  22%    3    5    5    2    2    0   23  2-0
Valiev ..............     6    3  11%    0    1    1    2    2    0   27  1-1

SYDNEY UNIVERSAL TILE WORKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Washington ..........     7    3  11%    4    4    3    0    2    1   28    -
Rakotomalala (L) ....     6    1   4%    3    4    4    2    0    0   25  1-1
Jones ...............     5    2   7%    2    4    4    1    1    1   18  2-2

  Batting order: Sydney Universal Tile Works (home) batted first; Ussuri Police batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM VLAT. Weather: 44°F · Wind in · Clear. seed 807640.
  Walk-Back runs: off Kuznetsova 1, off Washington 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 6 Moussa Suhail Amr Mahfouz (2B) 0–1
B 6 Moussa Suhail Marcelo Ati-Zigi (1B) 0–2
B 6 Moussa Suhail Moussa Suhail (HR) 0–3
B 8 Maxwell Mwaikenda Moussa Suhail (3B) 0–4
B 8 Maxwell Mwaikenda Grant Popp (1B) 0–5
B 20 Maxwell Mwaikenda Quinton Barth (3B) 0–6
B 20 Grant Popp Maxwell Mwaikenda (2B) 0–7
B 23 Marcelo Ati-Zigi James Patel (3B) 0–8
B 24 Moussa Suhail Grant Popp (3B) 0–9
B 24 Moussa Suhail Mekonnen Habte (2B) 0–10
B 26 Marnus Stewart Moussa Suhail (2B) 0–11
T 0 Lennox Coates Lennox Coates (HR) 1–11
T 0 Wylie Taylorov Lennox Coates (3B) 2–11
T 0 Kareem Baxter Wylie Taylorov (2B) 3–11
T 3 Benjamin Yahya Kareem Baxter (1B) 4–11
T 3 Gerry Huerta Benjamin Yahya (2B) 5–11
T 3 Alexander Efremova Gerry Huerta (2B) 6–11
T 4 Lennox Coates Alexander Efremova (3B) 7–11
T 4 Lennox Coates Dmitry Danilina (2B) 8–11
T 4 Wylie Taylorov Alfredo Zhai (2B) 9–11
T 4 Wylie Taylorov Lennox Coates (1B) 10–11
T 4 Wylie Taylorov Wylie Taylorov (HR) 11–11
T 6 Benjamin Yahya Kareem Baxter (2B) 12–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Lane Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 395' · CF 407' · RF 369' · 13' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Wire Basket Crescent Grandstand
Ussuri Police — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 2 HR
395' 407' 369' Lennox Coates — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +46° · 480 ft Wylie Taylorov — double · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 344 ft Kareem Baxter — single · EV 101 mph · LA +6° · 96 ft Benjamin Yahya — double · EV 99 mph · LA +30° · 342 ft Gerry Huerta — double · EV 118 mph · LA +21° · 368 ft Alexander Efremova — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 138 ft Lennox Coates — single · EV 112 mph · LA -1° · 107 ft Wylie Taylorov — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Alan Marfutina — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Benjamin Yahya — single · EV 96 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft
Sydney Universal Tile Works — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
395' 407' 369' Ellsworth Lavrusky — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +43° · 309 ft Hugo Correia — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 106 ft Raphaël Mendes — single · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Maxwell Mwaikenda — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +11° · 146 ft Moussa Suhail — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +33° · 480 ft Grant Popp — single · EV 115 mph · LA +7° · 109 ft Serge-Junior Sambissa — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 130 ft Marcelo Ati-Zigi — ground_out · EV 114 mph · LA -4° · 109 ft Maxwell Mwaikenda — double · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 321 ft Moussa Suhail — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 199 ft Marnus Stewart — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +7° · 66 ft Maxwell Mwaikenda — double · EV 99 mph · LA +21° · 264 ft Moussa Suhail — single · EV 118 mph · LA -3° · 112 ft Marnus Stewart — error · EV 87 mph · LA +7° · 83 ft Maxwell Mwaikenda — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +35° · 293 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Ussuri Police
33% deserve-to-win  ·  8.7 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +3.3 vs expected
contact: 15.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (+2.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Benjamin Yahya 99 / +30° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Wylie Taylorov 100 / +30° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.62
Alan Marfutina 100 / +5° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Benjamin Yahya 96 / +6° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Kareem Baxter 101 / +6° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.41
Sydney Universal Tile Works
67% deserve-to-win  ·  12.4 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 16.2 est bases + 11 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-5.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Moussa Suhail 100 / +15° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Ellsworth Lavrusky 88 / +43° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Maxwell Mwaikenda 98 / +11° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Maxwell Mwaikenda 88 / +35° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Hugo Correia 88 / +10° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
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