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Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub 6, Erdenet Sawmill 4                 2046-04-19 · #864
at Mirzadeh Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Itelka                  6    6    7    0
Erdenet                 4    4   10    0

ITELKA BEYSBOL'NYY KLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vlasov      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Santana     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Matsukevich c  ......    2   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Pepelyaeva  ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Sorokin     rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kulikov     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Muzaev      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Jonesov     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Agafonov    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kovalev ph ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Fitzgibbon  j  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Chalova     j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
Difo        j  ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  27   6   7   2   1   0   6   4  10   0   0  0.259
  2B: Chalova (4), Difo (3).
  3B: Matsukevich (1).
  SB: Sorokin (1), Kovalev 2 (5).
  CS: Muzaev (1).
  HBP: Matsukevich (1), Sorokin (2).
  a-Batted for Difo in the 4th.

ERDENET SAWMILL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bastardo    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Sylla       p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Rahimi      c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.333
Dōan        2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Bower   c  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  0.667
  b-Vanderh cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  c-Davis   ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  d-Gautche c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Castill c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Pritchard   j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Samuel      j  ......    2   2   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Porter      j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  30   4  10   0   0   0   3   3  14   2   0  0.333
  CS: Rahimi (2).
  GIDP: Rahimi (1), Dōan (1).
  a-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 5th.
  e-Entered at C in the 8th.

ITELKA BEYSBOL'NYY KLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agafonov ............     8    5  19%    3    0    0    0    3    0   31    -
Prozorova ...........     7    7  26%    2    3    3    0    4    0   21  3-3
Astakhova (W, 1-0) ..    16   13  48%    4    1    1    3    7    0   65    -
Yerokhin ............     1    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    3  3-0

ERDENET SAWMILL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sylla ...............    18   16  59%    3    2    2    2    4    0   67    -
Al-Haqbani (L, 0-2) .    10    6  22%    3    3    3    2    4    0   45    -
Flege ...............     6    5  19%    1    1    1    0    3    0   18  1-1

  Batting order: Erdenet Sawmill (home) batted second; Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 988660.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 13 Yury Kovalev Rick Fitzgibbon (2B) 1–0
T 15 Evgenii Matsukevich Yury Kovalev (3B) 2–0
T 18 Teymuraz Muzaev Ilya Sorokin (2B) 3–0
T 22 Semyon Chalova Yury Kovalev (2B) 4–0
T 22 Semyon Chalova Rick Fitzgibbon (1B) 5–0
T 22 Geraldo Difo Semyon Chalova (2B) 6–0
B 5 Seita Dōan Jerry Samuel (3B) 6–1
B 7 Pender Sylla Frank Porter (3B) 6–2
B 11 Maurice Davis Dave Bower (3B) 6–3
B 18 Saman Rahimi Jerry Samuel (3B) 6–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Mirzadeh Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 324' · CF 466' · RF 322' · 12' wall). Cavernous.
Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
324' 466' 322' Geraldo Difo — double · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 367 ft Gleb Vlasov — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -6° · 93 ft Victor Santana — ground_out · EV 119 mph · LA +0° · 113 ft Evgenii Matsukevich — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 275 ft Teymuraz Muzaev — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Chase Jonesov — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +21° · 261 ft Yury Kovalev — single · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Geraldo Difo — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +32° · 412 ft Victor Santana — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 294 ft Evgenii Matsukevich — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 316 ft Teymuraz Muzaev — single · EV 100 mph · LA -0° · 95 ft Alexander Agafonov — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Rick Fitzgibbon — single · EV 119 mph · LA +4° · 113 ft Semyon Chalova — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 401 ft Geraldo Difo — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Teymuraz Muzaev — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +2° · 95 ft
Erdenet Sawmill — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 9 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
324' 466' 322' Saman Rahimi — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 106 ft Maurice Davis — single · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 258 ft Jerry Samuel — single · EV 93 mph · LA -2° · 88 ft Frank Porter — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Dave Bower — single · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 184 ft Seita Dōan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 119 ft Pender Sylla — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 144 ft Saman Rahimi — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA -3° · 87 ft Jerry Samuel — single · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 125 ft James Gautcher — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 338 ft Seita Dōan — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Saman Rahimi — single · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 151 ft Frank Porter — single · EV 97 mph · LA +1° · 92 ft Dave Bower — single · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 162 ft Seita Dōan — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -17° · 62 ft Dave Bower — fly_out · EV 69 mph · LA +46° · 190 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Itelka Beysbol'nyy Klub
90% deserve-to-win  ·  12.1 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -6.1 vs expected
contact: 18.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-7.0 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Geraldo Difo 107 / +32° Pull Out 3.0 → 0 -3.01
Victor Santana 100 / +24° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Evgenii Matsukevich 119 / +14° Oppo Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.47
Evgenii Matsukevich 100 / +26° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Chase Jonesov 98 / +21° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
Erdenet Sawmill
10% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 9.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
James Gautcher 92 / +44° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Saman Rahimi 92 / +9° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Jerry Samuel 93 / -2° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Frank Porter 97 / +1° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Seita Dōan 76 / +16° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.49
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