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Perth Smelters 32, Sydney Border Force 12                    2046-04-19 · #856
at Whitestone Pillai Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Sydney                 12      -   12   13    0
Perth                  32      0   32   29    0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lochhead    lf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Pledger     cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vine        3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Rukavytsya  2b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Gorry       c  ......    3   3   4   2   0   0   3   1   0   1   0  1.333
Blundell    1b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Riise       ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Nabbout     p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Nayler  c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Hunt        j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Anton       j  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   2   0   0  0.250
Totals                  35  12  13   7   0   0  11   5  12   1   0  0.371
  2B: Lochhead (3), Rukavytsya (2), Gorry 2 (3), Anton (4), Blundell (1), Nabbout (1).
  SB: Gorry (1).
  GIDP: Vine (1), Anton (5).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Madgen      c  ......    5   3   4   3   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.800
Anton       ss ......    5   2   4   2   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  0.800
Brown       cf ......    2   4   2   1   0   0   2   3   0   0   0  1.000
Esson       lf ......    6   7   6   3   0   3   9   0   0   0   0  1.000
Jedinak     rf ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.400
  a-Cumming pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
McCullum    1b ......    5   2   3   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.600
Redmayne    2b ......    5   5   3   1   0   2   6   0   0   0   0  0.600
Smeltz      3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
  b-Olla    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kinzer      p  ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
  c-Beaucha ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Bowen   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Olla        j  ......    6   4   3   2   0   1   4   0   2   0   0  0.500
Totals                  50  32  29  14   0   7  31   5   8   1   0  0.580
  2B: Madgen 3 (20), Anton 2 (8), Brown (6), Esson 3 (10), Jedinak (3), Redmayne (2), Smeltz (3), Olla 2 (8).
  HR: Esson 3 (5), off Nabbout, Gregorius, Yallop; Redmayne 2 (2), off Rennie, Lochhead; Olla (4), off Gregorius; Kinzer (1), off Rennie.
  SB: Madgen (5).
  CS: Brown (4), Olla (2).
  HBP: Madgen (3).
  a-Ran for Jedinak in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Smeltz in the 8th.
  c-Struck out for Kinzer in the 8th.
  d-Grounded out in the 9th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Nabbout .............     6    2   7%    5    3    3    0    1    1   13    -
Williamson ..........     5    1   4%    3    4    3    1    0    0   19  1-1
Gregorius (L, 0-2) ..    10    5  19%    6    6    6    1    1    2   35  1-1
Rennie ..............     8    4  15%    5    6    4    1    1    2   33  1-1
Yallop ..............    10    6  22%    2    6    4    2    2    1   36  1-1
Lochhead ............    10    3  11%    7    6    6    0    0    1   32    -
Bannatyne ...........     7    6  22%    1    1    1    0    3    0   23  1-1

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kinzer ..............    13    7  26%    5    5    5    3    3    0   43    -
Gersbach (W, 1-0) ...    16   12  44%    3    3    3    2    5    0   62  1-1
Vukona ..............    10    6  22%    5    4    4    0    4    0   33  2-2
Jawai ...............     1    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    3  2-0

  Batting order: Perth Smelters (home) batted first; Sydney Border Force batted second.
  Seconds: PS o26 (32-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM IRKT. Weather: 72°F · Wind calm · Clear · Dry. seed 594191.
  Walk-Back runs: off Williamson 1, off Rennie 2, off Yallop 2, off Bannatyne 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Jordan Brown Tony Anton (1B) 0–1
B 1 Matt Esson Jordan Brown (2B) 0–2
B 1 Matt Esson Matt Esson (HR) 0–3
B 1 Greg Jedinak Matt Esson (3B) 0–4
B 1 Iain McCullum Greg Jedinak (2B) 0–5
B 2 Scott Olla Iain McCullum (2B) 0–6
B 2 Scott Olla Ish Smeltz (1B) 0–7
B 3 Nikita Madgen Scott Olla (2B) 0–8
B 3 Tony Anton Nikita Madgen (1B) 0–9
B 4 Matt Esson Jordan Brown (1B) 0–10
B 4 Matt Esson Matt Esson (HR) 0–11
B 7 Scott Olla Dean Redmayne (2B) 0–12
B 7 Scott Olla Scott Olla (HR) 0–13
B 7 Vic Kinzer Scott Olla (3B) 0–14
B 7 Vic Kinzer Vic Kinzer (HR) 0–15
B 7 Nikita Madgen Vic Kinzer (3B) 0–16
B 7 Tony Anton Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–17
B 11 Dean Redmayne Matt Esson (2B) 0–18
B 11 Dean Redmayne Dean Redmayne (HR) 0–19
B 11 Ish Smeltz Dean Redmayne (3B) 0–20
B 14 Matt Esson Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–21
B 14 Matt Esson Tony Anton (2B) 0–22
B 14 Matt Esson Jordan Brown (1B) 0–23
B 14 Matt Esson Matt Esson (HR) 0–24
B 16 Dean Redmayne Matt Esson (3B) 0–25
B 20 Jordan Brown Scott Olla (3B) 0–26
B 20 Matt Esson Jordan Brown (1B) 0–27
B 20 Greg Jedinak Matt Esson (3B) 0–28
B 20 Dean Redmayne Pat Cummings (2B) 0–29
B 20 Dean Redmayne Iain McCullum (1B) 0–30
B 20 Dean Redmayne Dean Redmayne (HR) 0–31
B 20 Ish Smeltz Dean Redmayne (3B) 0–32
T 6 Jørgen Riise Todd Gorry (3B) 1–32
T 7 Todd Gorry Moises Rukavytsya (3B) 2–32
T 7 Mark Anton Jordan Blundell (3B) 3–32
T 7 Mark Anton Jørgen Riise (2B) 4–32
T 7 Mark Anton Todd Gorry (1B) 5–32
T 11 Moises Rukavytsya Marco Vine (1B) 6–32
T 11 Jordan Blundell Mark Anton (3B) 7–32
T 13 Todd Gorry Moises Rukavytsya (3B) 8–32
T 22 Harry Nabbout Jordan Blundell (3B) 9–32
T 22 Todd Gorry Taylor Lochhead (3B) 10–32
T 22 Todd Gorry Harry Nabbout (3B) 11–32
T 25 Taylor Lochhead Todd Gorry (3B) 12–32
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Whitestone Pillai Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 328' · CF 409' · RF 344' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 5 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
328' 409' 344' Todd Gorry — double · EV 94 mph · LA +26° · 275 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Mitchell Pledger — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +29° · 336 ft Moises Rukavytsya — single · EV 78 mph · LA -15° · 74 ft Jordan Blundell — single · EV 65 mph · LA +24° · 126 ft Marco Vine — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +8° · 75 ft Todd Gorry — single · EV 104 mph · LA +14° · 200 ft Mark Anton — double · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 196 ft Mitchell Pledger — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +14° · 89 ft Cam Nayler — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Moises Rukavytsya — double · EV 78 mph · LA +33° · 223 ft Jordan Blundell — double · EV 89 mph · LA +17° · 172 ft Harry Nabbout — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +27° · 231 ft Taylor Lochhead — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Marco Vine — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA +8° · 51 ft Mark Anton — double_play · EV 89 mph · LA -9° · 85 ft Jordan Blundell — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +31° · 314 ft Harry Nabbout — double · EV 101 mph · LA +34° · 376 ft Todd Gorry — error · EV 93 mph · LA -2° · 88 ft Taylor Lochhead — double · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft Todd Gorry — double · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Mitchell Pledger — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +15° · 123 ft Cam Nayler — single · EV 65 mph · LA +17° · 95 ft
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
36 BIP· 8 1B · 14 XBH · 7 HR
328' 409' 344' Nikita Madgen — double · EV 112 mph · LA +24° · 367 ft Tony Anton — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 122 ft Jordan Brown — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 233 ft Matt Esson — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +35° · 480 ft Greg Jedinak — double · EV 117 mph · LA +15° · 278 ft Iain McCullum — single · EV 114 mph · LA +9° · 168 ft Scott Olla — double · EV 119 mph · LA +24° · 426 ft Nikita Madgen — single · EV 119 mph · LA +10° · 186 ft Tony Anton — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 334 ft Matt Esson — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +33° · 480 ft Greg Jedinak — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Iain McCullum — infield_single · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Dean Redmayne — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 212 ft Scott Olla — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Vic Kinzer — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +32° · 480 ft Jordan Brown — single · EV 117 mph · LA +19° · 336 ft Nikita Madgen — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 311 ft Tony Anton — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 313 ft Matt Esson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 354 ft Dean Redmayne — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +41° · 480 ft Vic Kinzer — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +38° · 300 ft Ish Smeltz — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -0° · 93 ft Nikita Madgen — double · EV 119 mph · LA +13° · 255 ft Matt Esson — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Greg Jedinak — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +11° · 186 ft Dean Redmayne — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Scott Olla — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Vic Kinzer — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +34° · 288 ft Tony Anton — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Ish Smeltz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 141 ft Matt Esson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 346 ft Greg Jedinak — single · EV 109 mph · LA +15° · 243 ft Iain McCullum — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 126 ft Dean Redmayne — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +36° · 366 ft Scott Olla — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +25° · 202 ft Matt Esson — double · EV 102 mph · LA +11° · 161 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sydney Border Force
9% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 14.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 20.0 (+5.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Moises Rukavytsya 78 / +33° Oppo Double 0.1 → 2 +1.88
Todd Gorry 94 / +26° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Taylor Lochhead 92 / +31° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Mitchell Pledger 99 / +29° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Mark Anton 92 / +18° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Perth Smelters
91% deserve-to-win  ·  27.7 expected runs
actual 32 runs  ·  +4.3 vs expected
contact: 60.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 63.0 (+2.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dean Redmayne 98 / +36° Pull Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.48
Greg Jedinak 110 / +11° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Vic Kinzer 88 / +38° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Vic Kinzer 88 / +34° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Scott Olla 119 / +24° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -0.97
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