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Aleksandrovsk Hawks 3, Oistins Mustangs 2                    2046-04-19 · #843
at Islame Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Aleksandrovsk           3    3    4    0
Oistins                 2    2    6    0

ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rudnev      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pogrebnyak  cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Sulfste ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Mondevillin 3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
McAteerov   p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Lapushc cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kravchu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Strelko 3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Nkosi   cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Sudakov c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Dranets c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  h-Nikoyan ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Guerrer pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Madrigal    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kravchuk    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  17   3   4   2   0   0   3   3  11   0   0  0.235
  2B: Strelkov (3), Nkosi (3).
  SB: Strelkov 2 (4).
  CS: Pogrebnyak (2).
  a-Walked for Pogrebnyak in the 6th.
  b-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Nkosi in the 6th.
  d-Entered at 3B in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at CF in the 4th.
  f-Entered at C in the 8th.
  g-Entered at C in the 6th.
  h-Struck out for Lapushchenkova in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Dranets in the 6th.

OISTINS MUSTANGS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Buster      lf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Ozaki       2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Wang        ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Sunwoo      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1  0.000
Seol        3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Teixeira    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tolleson    rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Myint       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Parker      p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
LeBlancov   j  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Hyndman     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   2   6   2   0   0   2   1   6   0   1  0.214
  2B: Buster (4), LeBlancov (4).
  CS: Ozaki (5), Sunwoo (2).


ALEKSANDROVSK HAWKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
McAteerov (W, 2-1) ..    24   21  78%    6    2    2    0    4    0   78    -
Pepelyaeva ..........     5    6  22%    0    0    0    1    2    0   23  2-0

OISTINS MUSTANGS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Parker (L, 2-2) .....    20   16  59%    4    3    3    3   11    0   76    -

  Batting order: Oistins Mustangs (home) batted first; Aleksandrovsk Hawks batted second.
  First pitch 6:40 PM. Weather: 81°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 792866.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 21 Dante LeBlancov Isadore Parker (2B) 0–1
B 21 Satoshi Ozaki Lucas Buster (3B) 0–2
T 15 Daler Dranets Fyodor Strelkov (2B) 1–2
T 15 Knox Nkosi Karl-Anthony Guerrero (1B) 2–2
T 15 Sergiy Sudakov Yury Kravchuk (3B) 3–2
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Islame Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 318' · CF 452' · RF 332' · 41' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Knothole Gates Flag Pole in Play
Aleksandrovsk Hawks — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
318' 452' 332' Wall 41' Sergiy Sudakov — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -8° · 82 ft Trey McAteerov — single · EV 91 mph · LA -3° · 86 ft Fyodor Strelkov — double · EV 119 mph · LA +24° · 420 ft Daler Dranets — single · EV 75 mph · LA +15° · 112 ft Knox Nkosi — double · EV 110 mph · LA +17° · 264 ft Sergiy Sudakov — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +2° · 86 ft
Oistins Mustangs — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
318' 452' 332' Wall 41' Lucas Buster — double · EV 104 mph · LA +34° · 402 ft Satoshi Ozaki — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Sung-ho Seol — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 183 ft Gleison Teixeira — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 172 ft Htun Myint — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 214 ft Isadore Parker — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +31° · 217 ft Lucas Buster — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +32° · 221 ft Satoshi Ozaki — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +16° · 82 ft Sheng-feng Wang — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 145 ft Dante LeBlancov — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +15° · 197 ft Sung-ho Seol — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 137 ft Anthony Tolleson — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +55° · 217 ft Htun Myint — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +31° · 239 ft Isadore Parker — single · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Lucas Buster — single · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 174 ft Dante LeBlancov — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 316 ft Satoshi Ozaki — single · EV 81 mph · LA +18° · 154 ft Elliott Hyndman — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 222 ft Sheng-feng Wang — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +40° · 355 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Aleksandrovsk Hawks
24% deserve-to-win  ·  2.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 5.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Trey McAteerov 91 / -3° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Daler Dranets 75 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.49
Sergiy Sudakov 90 / +2° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
Sergiy Sudakov 86 / -8° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.36
Knox Nkosi 110 / +17° Oppo Double 1.7 → 2 +0.32
Oistins Mustangs
76% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 12.6 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-4.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sheng-feng Wang 95 / +40° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Dante LeBlancov 98 / +15° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Lucas Buster 104 / +34° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.01
Dante LeBlancov 92 / +34° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Sung-ho Seol 92 / +12° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
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