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Caracas Independence Brewery 16, Culiacán BC 8               2046-04-19 · #841
at Caracas Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Culiacán                8      0    8   11    1
Caracas                16      0   16   15    0

CULIACÁN BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Peña        lf ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Massad      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Frías       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lombardi    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Severino    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Valdivia    cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pujols      2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Arráez      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
  a-Rodrígu c  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Sosa        j  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Mani        j  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Sartori     j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  32   8  11   5   0   0   7   3  10   0   1  0.344
  2B: Sosa (2), Peña (8), Mani (5), Sartori (7), Rodríguez (6).
  CS: Sosa (4).
  E: Sartori (1).
  GIDP: Valdivia (1).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Calabrese   3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Sehgal  pr ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Goodwin     1b ......    3   3   1   1   0   0   1   2   2   0   0  0.333
Báez        c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Moraes      2b ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.333
Marte       rf ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.250
Navas       ss ......    5   1   3   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Najar       cf ......    5   2   3   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
Almonte     lf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Liriano     p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.250
Totals                  36  16  15   8   0   0  15   7   8   0   1  0.417
  2B: Goodwin (5), Báez (6), Moraes (4), Marte (10), Navas (1), Najar 2 (4), Almonte (11).
  SB: Marte (4).
  CS: Báez 2 (3), Navas (1).
  HBP: Moraes (1).
  a-Ran for Calabrese in the 1st.

CULIACÁN BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Arráez ..............     8    2   7%    2    3    3    3    1    0   27    -
Costa ...............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    1    1    0   13  2-2
Adames (L, 0-1) .....    10    9  33%    4    4    4    1    2    0   30  3-3
Mendez-Laing ........    13    9  33%    5    4    4    1    2    0   38  1-0
Pérez ...............     8    5  19%    2    3    3    1    2    0   29  1-1

CARACAS INDEPENDENCE BREWERY PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Liriano .............    13    9  33%    6    3    3    0    3    0   46    -
Geraldo (W, 1-0) ....    13   11  41%    2    3    3    3    5    0   52  1-0
Viscarra (F, 18) ....     9    7  26%    3    2    2    0    2    0   35  1-1

  Batting order: Caracas Independence Brewery (home) batted first; Culiacán BC batted second.
  Seconds: CB o26 (8-16), CIB o25 (16-0).
  First pitch 2:00 PM. Weather: 81°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 282351.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Samuel Moraes Rishi Sehgal (3B) 0–1
B 0 Vladimir Marte Garang Goodwin (3B) 0–2
B 0 Vladimir Marte Welington Báez (2B) 0–3
B 1 Enner Najar Samuel Moraes (3B) 0–4
B 1 Enner Najar Vladimir Marte (2B) 0–5
B 3 Welington Báez Enner Najar (3B) 0–6
B 3 Welington Báez Adrián Almonte (2B) 0–7
B 4 Samuel Moraes Rishi Sehgal (3B) 0–8
B 11 Welington Báez Garang Goodwin (2B) 0–9
B 16 Rishi Sehgal Adrián Almonte (3B) 0–10
B 17 Garang Goodwin Pedro Liriano (2B) 0–11
B 20 Christian Navas Garang Goodwin (2B) 0–12
B 20 Enner Najar Christian Navas (1B) 0–13
B 25 Vladimir Marte Enner Najar (3B) 0–14
B 25 Christian Navas Samuel Moraes (3B) 0–15
B 25 Christian Navas Vladimir Marte (3B) 0–16
T 1 Sadiel Sosa Vittorio Sartori (2B) 1–16
T 2 Hanley Rodríguez Abu Mani (1B) 2–16
T 4 Haytham Massad Hanley Rodríguez (2B) 3–16
T 17 Sadiel Pujols Rafael Peña (3B) 4–16
T 17 Oswaldo Arráez Abu Mani (3B) 5–16
T 18 Rafael Peña Sadiel Pujols (2B) 6–16
T 19 Abu Mani Rafael Peña (2B) 7–16
T 19 Abu Mani Sadiel Sosa (1B) 8–16
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Caracas Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 375' · CF 436' · RF 305' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Culiacán BC — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
375' 436' 305' Rafael Peña — double · EV 117 mph · LA +11° · 211 ft Vittorio Sartori — double · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 228 ft Sadiel Sosa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 206 ft Abu Mani — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 133 ft Hanley Rodríguez — double · EV 116 mph · LA +26° · 419 ft Samuele Lombardi — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Haytham Massad — single · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Maxi Valdivia — double_play · EV 82 mph · LA -11° · 78 ft Oswaldo Arráez — single · EV 70 mph · LA +10° · 69 ft Rafael Peña — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 124 ft Vittorio Sartori — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -15° · 86 ft Abu Mani — double · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 145 ft Sadiel Pujols — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -6° · 63 ft Oswaldo Arráez — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +37° · 299 ft Rafael Peña — single · EV 109 mph · LA +2° · 103 ft Sadiel Sosa — single · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Hanley Rodríguez — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -2° · 79 ft Sammy Severino — single · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 127 ft Maxi Valdivia — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 155 ft
Caracas Independence Brewery — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 7 1B · 8 XBH · 0 HR
375' 436' 305' Vladimir Marte — double · EV 102 mph · LA +33° · 380 ft Enner Najar — double · EV 98 mph · LA +27° · 312 ft Rishi Sehgal — single · EV 67 mph · LA +12° · 76 ft Welington Báez — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 186 ft Samuel Moraes — double · EV 108 mph · LA +15° · 231 ft Adrián Almonte — single · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 196 ft Vladimir Marte — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 74 ft Christian Navas — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 335 ft Enner Najar — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +1° · 71 ft Welington Báez — double · EV 94 mph · LA +45° · 353 ft Adrián Almonte — double · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 395 ft Pedro Liriano — error · EV 78 mph · LA +19° · 149 ft Garang Goodwin — double · EV 106 mph · LA +40° · 444 ft Christian Navas — double · EV 106 mph · LA +37° · 431 ft Enner Najar — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +0° · 66 ft Rishi Sehgal — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Welington Báez — fly_out · EV 64 mph · LA +28° · 135 ft Vladimir Marte — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 73 ft Pedro Liriano — single · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Christian Navas — single · EV 94 mph · LA -6° · 89 ft Enner Najar — double · EV 101 mph · LA +29° · 346 ft Rishi Sehgal — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +42° · 174 ft Vladimir Marte — error · EV 99 mph · LA +15° · 196 ft Pedro Liriano — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +13° · 161 ft Christian Navas — infield_single · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 138 ft Enner Najar — single · EV 91 mph · LA +18° · 200 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Culiacán BC
23% deserve-to-win  ·  8.3 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 16.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Abu Mani 100 / +10° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Abu Mani 94 / +12° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Oswaldo Arráez 88 / +37° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Hanley Rodríguez 116 / +26° Oppo Double 3.0 → 2 -0.97
Sadiel Sosa 100 / +16° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Caracas Independence Brewery
77% deserve-to-win  ·  15.5 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 25.9 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (-2.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 3 CS (-2.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Christian Navas 98 / +30° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Vladimir Marte 99 / +15° Oppo Reached on Error 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Pedro Liriano 95 / +13° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Christian Navas 106 / +37° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.01
Garang Goodwin 106 / +40° Oppo Double 3.0 → 2 -1.01
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