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Perth Smelters 21, Sydney Border Force 7                     2046-04-18 · #807
at Whitestone Pillai Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Sydney                  7    7    7    1
Perth                  21   21   17    0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Caporn      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Vine        ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Crowe       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Pledger     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Rukavytsya  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Rowles      rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Buffington  3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Blundell    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Nayler  c  ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Hunt        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Anton       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29   7   7   0   0   0   7   4  11   0   1  0.241
  SB: Vine (2).
  E: Caporn (1).
  HBP: Anton (1).
  Squeeze: Pledger (1 RBI).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Anton       ss ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
  a-Syph-Ti ss ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Esson       lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Olla    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bowen       3b ......    5   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.200
Redmayne    2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cummings    cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Kerr    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hadlee      p  ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   4   0   3   0   0  0.250
Smeltz      1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Cumming pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Madgen  ph ......    4   4   2   1   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
  f-Arzani  ph ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
  g-Beaucha ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  h-Wetzell pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  i-Foster  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Olla        j  ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.250
Totals                  42  21  17   9   0   4  19   2   5   0   0  0.405
  2B: Anton (6), Madgen (17), Esson (7), Bowen (5), Arzani 2 (11), Redmayne (1), Smeltz (2), Wetzell (4).
  HR: Madgen (2), off García; Hadlee (1), off Hassett; Olla (3), off García; Syph-Timmons (1), off Rennie.
  SB: Madgen (4).
  Squeeze: Olla.
  a-Replaced Anton at SS in the 8th.
  b-Ran for Esson in the 5th.
  c-Singled for Cummings in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Smeltz in the 5th.
  e-Batted in the 1st.
  f-Batted in the 1st.
  g-Batted in the 4th.
  h-Ran for Beauchamp in the 6th.
  i-Ran for Kerr in the 6th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caporn ..............     5    1   4%    3    3    1    0    0    0   13    -
Morgan ..............    15   13  48%    4    2    2    1    3    0   48  1-1
Hassett .............     7    2   7%    3    6    6    1    0    1   28  1-1
García (L) ..........     7    4  15%    4    6    3    0    0    2   15  1-1
Rennie ..............     9    7  26%    3    4    3    0    2    1   28  1-1

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hadlee (W, 3-0) .....    25   20  74%    5    5    5    2    8    0  102    -
Smith (F, 20) .......     8    7  26%    1    2    2    2    3    0   31  2-2

  Batting order: Perth Smelters (home) batted first; Sydney Border Force batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM IRKT. Weather: 57°F · Wind in · Clear. seed 960054.
  Walk-Back runs: off García 3, off Rennie 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Nikita Madgen Tony Anton (2B) 0–1
B 1 Shane Bowen Nikita Madgen (2B) 0–2
B 1 Aaron Arzani Shane Bowen (1B) 0–3
B 1 Dean Redmayne Aaron Arzani (2B) 0–4
B 6 Matt Esson Jack Cummings (1B) 0–5
B 14 Matt Esson Pat Cummings (2B) 0–6
B 15 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–7
B 16 Jacob Hadlee Adam Olla (3B) 0–8
B 16 Jacob Hadlee Cam Wetzell (2B) 0–9
B 16 Jacob Hadlee Taylor Foster (1B) 0–10
B 16 Jacob Hadlee Jacob Hadlee (HR) 0–11
B 17 Scott Olla Jacob Hadlee (3B) 0–12
B 19 Nikita Madgen Nikita Madgen (HR) 0–13
B 19 Scott Olla Nikita Madgen (3B) 0–14
B 19 Scott Olla Scott Olla (HR) 0–15
B 20 Shane Bowen Scott Olla (3B) 0–16
B 20 Aaron Arzani Shane Bowen (2B) 0–17
B 20 Cam Wetzell Aaron Arzani (3B) 0–18
B 23 Ricardo Syph-Timmons Pat Cummings (1B) 0–19
B 23 Ricardo Syph-Timmons Ricardo Syph-Timmons (HR) 0–20
B 24 Scott Olla Ricardo Syph-Timmons (3B) 0–21
T 9 Andrew Caporn Cam Nayler (3B) 1–21
T 13 Richard Hunt Doug Crowe (2B) 2–21
T 16 Jordan Blundell Cam Nayler (2B) 3–21
T 19 Mitchell Pledger Andrew Caporn (3B) 4–21
T 20 Rhyan Rowles Mark Anton (3B) 5–21
T 21 Stefan Buffington Richard Hunt (3B) 6–21
T 25 Doug Crowe Rhyan Rowles (3B) 7–21
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Whitestone Pillai Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 328' · CF 409' · RF 344' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
328' 409' 344' Mitchell Pledger — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Cam Nayler — single · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Moises Rukavytsya — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Andrew Caporn — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 338 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Moises Rukavytsya — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +5° · 58 ft Jordan Blundell — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Andrew Caporn — single · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 78 ft Doug Crowe — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 74 ft Mark Anton — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Richard Hunt — single · EV 62 mph · LA -21° · 59 ft Rhyan Rowles — single · EV 96 mph · LA +24° · 271 ft Andrew Caporn — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Doug Crowe — single · EV 82 mph · LA +14° · 128 ft Mark Anton — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +2° · 60 ft
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
32 BIP· 4 1B · 9 XBH · 4 HR
328' 409' 344' Tony Anton — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 225 ft Nikita Madgen — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 207 ft Shane Bowen — error · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Aaron Arzani — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 233 ft Dean Redmayne — double · EV 116 mph · LA +19° · 340 ft Jack Cummings — single · EV 96 mph · LA -11° · 91 ft Brock Beauchamp — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +15° · 188 ft Ben Kerr — single · EV 88 mph · LA +19° · 188 ft Adam Olla — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +34° · 271 ft Cam Wetzell — double · EV 115 mph · LA +15° · 269 ft Taylor Foster — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -13° · 61 ft Pat Cummings — single · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 118 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Nikita Madgen — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +29° · 303 ft Matt Esson — double · EV 103 mph · LA +24° · 322 ft Shane Bowen — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -4° · 70 ft Aaron Arzani — fly_out · EV 103 mph · LA +30° · 369 ft Ish Smeltz — double · EV 112 mph · LA +14° · 230 ft Brock Beauchamp — single · EV 116 mph · LA +22° · 370 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +4° · 86 ft Adam Olla — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +40° · 385 ft Tony Anton — line_out · EV 106 mph · LA +20° · 291 ft Matt Esson — error · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Aaron Arzani — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +56° · 422 ft Jacob Hadlee — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +37° · 397 ft Nikita Madgen — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Scott Olla — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +27° · 432 ft Tony Anton — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 320 ft Shane Bowen — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 270 ft Aaron Arzani — double · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 280 ft Nikita Madgen — line_out · EV 112 mph · LA +23° · 362 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +30° · 395 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Sydney Border Force
3% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 6.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andrew Caporn 92 / +44° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Cam Nayler 52 / -1° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Richard Hunt 62 / -21° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.83
Doug Crowe 80 / +8° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Andrew Caporn 82 / +8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.60
Perth Smelters
97% deserve-to-win  ·  20.8 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 46.1 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 38.0 (-8.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Scott Olla 107 / +30° Center Out 2.1 → 0 -2.07
Jacob Hadlee 102 / +37° Pull Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.98
Adam Olla 99 / +40° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -1.96
Nikita Madgen 112 / +23° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Tony Anton 106 / +20° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.58
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