Spray ChartsHybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rowaiye Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions
(LF 273' · CF 364' · RF 291' · 51' wall).
The Bandbox.
Rijeka Beisbol Klub — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
Regensburg Samurai — Batted Balls
2 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
Luck LedgerDeserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rijeka Beisbol Klub
47%deserve-to-win · 1.3 expected runs
actual 1 run
· -0.3 vs expected
contact: 5.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP
· actual batted 5.0 (-0.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)