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Smirnykh Glassworks 25, Casablanca Elk 11                    2046-04-18 · #794
at Granite Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Casablanca             11      0   11   12    1
Smirnykh               25      -   25   16    0

CASABLANCA ELK
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Moukoko     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Moyo        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   2  0.000
Strydom     ss ......    2   3   2   1   0   1   3   1   1   1   0  1.000
Mezui       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kassim      1b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Nel         2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Gosso   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Maritz      c  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   2   1   0  0.667
Haukongo    3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Inkoom  c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Toit    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Russo       j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Demissie    j  ......    4   2   3   0   0   0   3   0   1   1   0  0.750
Mpasi       j  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  33  11  12   2   0   1  10   5  14   3   2  0.364
  2B: Strydom (10), Mpasi (4).
  HR: Strydom (1), off Nelsonov.
  SB: Strydom (2), Kassim (1), Demissie (2), Toit (2).
  CS: Toit (2).
  E: Moyo (1).
  HBP: Strydom (2).
  a-Ran for Nel in the 8th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.
  c-Grounded out for Gosso in the 9th.

SMIRNYKH GLASSWORKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Guskova     rf ......    2   3   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Glimakova   lf ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Youzhny     1b ......    5   5   4   2   0   1   7   0   1   0   0  0.800
Toumi       2b ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  0.500
Denhoff     c  ......    5   2   2   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.400
Schukin     ss ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
Cherkasov   3b ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   4   1   2   1   0  0.500
Chalova     cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Nelsonov    p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Semenenko   j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  0.333
Tkacheva    j  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Bykov       j  ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   5   0   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  39  25  16   9   0   2  25   8   9   2   0  0.410
  2B: Glimakova (8), Youzhny 2 (16), Toumi (3), Denhoff 2 (8), Cherkasov (3), Tkacheva (10), Bykov (11).
  HR: Youzhny (6), off Blank; Bykov (5), off Banguera.
  SB: Toumi (2), Bykov (5).
  HBP: Guskova 2 (5), Glimakova (2), Toumi (1), Schukin (3).


CASABLANCA ELK PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moyo ................     5    1   4%    4    2    2    0    1    0   13    -
Blank (L, 0-1) ......    10    6  22%    2    5    5    1    3    1   34  1-1
Banguera ............     8    4  15%    1    5    5    1    1    1   31  1-1
Yarmolenko ..........     6    2   7%    3    4    3    1    1    0   22  1-1
Mukamurenzi .........    12    8  30%    4    3    3    1    2    0   42  1-0
Mthembu .............     6    2   7%    1    4    4    2    0    0   19  2-2
Martínez ............     5    4  15%    1    2    2    2    1    0   19  2-2

SMIRNYKH GLASSWORKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Nelsonov ............    13    9  33%    3    5    5    2    4    1   53    -
Frolov (W, 2-1) .....    11    9  33%    4    2    1    0    4    0   44  1-1
Eustatia ............    10    7  26%    4    3    3    1    5    0   40  2-2
Lutrova .............     4    2   7%    0    1    1    2    1    0   17  2-1

  Batting order: Smirnykh Glassworks (home) batted first; Casablanca Elk batted second.
  Seconds: CE o26 (11-25).
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 55°F · Wind calm · Clear · Dry. seed 41841.
  Walk-Back runs: off Banguera 1, off Yarmolenko 1, off Frolov 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Oussama Toumi Rifat Youzhny (1B) 0–1
B 1 Kadyn Denhoff Oussama Toumi (2B) 0–2
B 5 Alibek Tkacheva Kadyn Denhoff (2B) 0–3
B 7 Rifat Youzhny Alibek Tkacheva (3B) 0–4
B 7 Rifat Youzhny Daniil Guskova (2B) 0–5
B 7 Rifat Youzhny Alen Glimakova (1B) 0–6
B 7 Rifat Youzhny Rifat Youzhny (HR) 0–7
B 7 Oussama Toumi Rifat Youzhny (3B) 0–8
B 11 Maksim Bykov Timofei Schukin (3B) 0–9
B 11 Maksim Bykov Teymuraz Cherkasov (2B) 0–10
B 11 Maksim Bykov Alibek Tkacheva (1B) 0–11
B 11 Maksim Bykov Maksim Bykov (HR) 0–12
B 12 Daniil Guskova Maksim Bykov (3B) 0–13
B 12 Rifat Youzhny Daniil Guskova (3B) 0–14
B 12 Rifat Youzhny Alen Glimakova (2B) 0–15
B 12 Kadyn Denhoff Rifat Youzhny (2B) 0–16
B 18 Maksim Bykov Alexandre Chalova (2B) 0–17
B 21 Rifat Youzhny Maksim Bykov (3B) 0–18
B 21 Kadyn Denhoff Rifat Youzhny (2B) 0–19
B 21 Teymuraz Cherkasov Oussama Toumi (3B) 0–20
B 21 Teymuraz Cherkasov Kadyn Denhoff (2B) 0–21
B 21 Teymuraz Cherkasov Timofei Schukin (1B) 0–22
B 22 Alen Glimakova Teymuraz Cherkasov (3B) 0–23
B 25 Timofei Schukin Tennys Nelsonov (3B) 0–24
B 25 Teymuraz Cherkasov Daniil Guskova (3B) 0–25
T 4 Lemma Demissie Haile Kassim (3B) 1–25
T 4 Lemma Demissie Reeza Maritz (2B) 2–25
T 7 Hamilton Moyo Lemma Demissie (3B) 3–25
T 8 Wynand Strydom Hamari Mpasi (2B) 4–25
T 8 Wynand Strydom Wynand Strydom (HR) 5–25
T 10 Reeza Maritz Wynand Strydom (3B) 6–25
T 17 Wynand Strydom Lemma Demissie (3B) 7–25
T 18 Haile Kassim Alfred Haukongo (3B) 8–25
T 23 Lemma Demissie Wynand Strydom (3B) 9–25
T 24 Hamari Mpasi Devis Gosso (3B) 10–25
T 24 Hamilton Moyo Leonardo Russo (3B) 11–25
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Granite Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 306' · CF 449' · RF 348' · 13' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Wire Basket
Casablanca Elk — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
306' 449' 348' Adeola Mezui — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 273 ft Reeza Maritz — single · EV 73 mph · LA +18° · 125 ft Hamari Mpasi — single · EV 80 mph · LA +13° · 109 ft Haile Kassim — single · EV 65 mph · LA +23° · 119 ft Alfred Haukongo — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Aubrey du Toit — fielders_choice · EV 55 mph · LA -27° · 52 ft Lemma Demissie — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Wynand Strydom — hr · EV 101 mph · LA +41° · 407 ft Faf Nel — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 92 ft Reeza Maritz — single · EV 66 mph · LA +24° · 129 ft Leonardo Russo — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +53° · 292 ft Maodo Moukoko — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +19° · 153 ft Haile Kassim — single · EV 60 mph · LA +17° · 78 ft Lemma Demissie — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft Wynand Strydom — double · EV 86 mph · LA +28° · 245 ft Adeola Mezui — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +0° · 91 ft Faf Nel — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Hamari Mpasi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 222 ft Lemma Demissie — error · EV 77 mph · LA -1° · 73 ft
Smirnykh Glassworks — Batted Balls
28 BIP· 4 1B · 9 XBH · 2 HR
306' 449' 348' Daniil Guskova — infield_single · EV 69 mph · LA -6° · 66 ft Rifat Youzhny — single · EV 110 mph · LA +7° · 104 ft Oussama Toumi — double · EV 90 mph · LA +24° · 244 ft Kadyn Denhoff — double · EV 103 mph · LA +21° · 280 ft Eduard Semenenko — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +33° · 275 ft Alibek Tkacheva — double · EV 94 mph · LA +35° · 334 ft Maksim Bykov — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 255 ft Rifat Youzhny — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Oussama Toumi — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +33° · 261 ft Eduard Semenenko — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +30° · 239 ft Alibek Tkacheva — error · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 152 ft Maksim Bykov — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +37° · 452 ft Daniil Guskova — single · EV 83 mph · LA +17° · 156 ft Alen Glimakova — double · EV 104 mph · LA +36° · 411 ft Rifat Youzhny — double · EV 97 mph · LA +39° · 367 ft Kadyn Denhoff — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft Eduard Semenenko — single · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 130 ft Alibek Tkacheva — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Maksim Bykov — double · EV 108 mph · LA +19° · 279 ft Tennys Nelsonov — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +27° · 230 ft Alen Glimakova — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 226 ft Teymuraz Cherkasov — double · EV 106 mph · LA +19° · 273 ft Rifat Youzhny — double · EV 97 mph · LA +31° · 333 ft Kadyn Denhoff — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 206 ft Alen Glimakova — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +39° · 235 ft Teymuraz Cherkasov — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA +10° · 106 ft Teymuraz Cherkasov — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Kadyn Denhoff — fly_out · EV 109 mph · LA +16° · 248 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Casablanca Elk
10% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +3.8 vs expected
contact: 10.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+4.1 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wynand Strydom 101 / +41° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.51
Hamari Mpasi 92 / +20° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Adeola Mezui 92 / +27° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.80
Faf Nel 76 / -10° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Lemma Demissie 77 / -1° Oppo Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Smirnykh Glassworks
90% deserve-to-win  ·  21.7 expected runs
actual 25 runs  ·  +3.3 vs expected
contact: 29.2 est bases + 13 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 31.0 (+1.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kadyn Denhoff 109 / +16° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Oussama Toumi 90 / +24° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Alibek Tkacheva 94 / +35° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Teymuraz Cherkasov 92 / +14° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Daniil Guskova 69 / -6° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
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