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Auckland Tailors 13, Melbourne Baseball Club 12              2046-04-18 · #789
at Siadi Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Auckland               13   13   13    0
Melbourne              12   12   12    0

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Möttölä     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Vicelich    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chapman     lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Rauf        2b ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Rangi       cf ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
White       3b ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Rangi       c  ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Bowen       p  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Brockie c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Reath       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Rivera      j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Mansoor     j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  32  13  13   3   0   3  11   3   8   0   0  0.406
  2B: Rangi (5), White 2 (5).
  HR: Rauf (1), off Head; Rangi (1), off Coronado; Bowen (1), off Wetzell.
  SB: Rauf (1), Rangi (4), White (4).
  CS: Chapman (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Baccus      cf ......    3   2   3   0   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  1.000
Reed        1b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Irvine      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Smeltz      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Feliz   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Longley     3b ......    3   2   4   2   0   0   3   0   0   1   0  1.333
Rios        rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Rogers  pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Head        p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Lopez   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Buchano ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Sainsbu pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Bogaert pr ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  g-Tolo    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.667
Talbot      j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Totals                  33  12  12   2   0   0   9   8  12   2   0  0.364
  2B: Longley 2 (2).
  SB: Longley (2).
  CS: Rogers (1).
  GIDP: Talbot (5).
  a-Ran for Smeltz in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Rios in the 2nd.
  c-Grounded out in the 2nd.
  d-Walked in the 2nd.
  e-Ran for Lopez in the 2nd.
  f-Ran for Buchanon in the 2nd.
  g-Replaced Talbot at C in the 3rd.

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen ...............     9    5  19%    5    3    3    1    0    0   33    -
Hall ................     9    5  19%    3    2    2    4    2    0   33  1-1
Liu .................     4    2   7%    1    2    2    1    2    0   17  3-2
McCullum ............     9    8  30%    1    4    4    2    2    0   33  3-2
Rodriguez (W, 1-0) ..     9    7  26%    2    1    1    0    6    0   43  1-0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Head ................     8    5  19%    3    3    2    0    2    1   32    -
Yoganathan ..........    13   12  44%    4    2    2    1    3    0   53  1-1
Wetzell .............     4    3  11%    1    3    2    0    1    1   17  1-1
Coronado (L, 0-1) ...     6    3  11%    4    3    3    0    2    1   24    -
Blicavs .............     3    0   0%    1    2    1    2    0    0    7  1-1

  Batting order: Melbourne Baseball Club (home) batted first; Auckland Tailors batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM VLAT. Weather: 62°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Dry. seed 876297.
  Walk-Back runs: off Head 1, off Wetzell 1, off Blicavs 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 4 Francois Buchanon Yunieski Gurriel (3B) 0–1
B 5 Mustafa Longley Hilton Talbot (3B) 0–2
B 5 Mustafa Longley Didi Bogaerts (2B) 0–3
B 7 Cameron Baccus Mustafa Longley (3B) 0–4
B 10 Harry Sainsbury Cameron Baccus (3B) 0–5
B 11 Mustafa Longley Ryan Tolo (3B) 0–6
B 12 Bruno Head Starlin Feliz (3B) 0–7
B 13 Cameron Baccus Harry Sainsbury (3B) 0–8
B 13 Dallas Reed Mustafa Longley (3B) 0–9
B 17 Starlin Feliz Cameron Baccus (3B) 0–10
B 19 Beau Rogers Didi Bogaerts (3B) 0–11
B 25 Harry Sainsbury Dallas Reed (2B) 0–12
T 4 Adeel Rauf Adeel Rauf (HR) 1–12
T 4 Colin Rangi Adeel Rauf (3B) 2–12
T 4 Martin White Colin Rangi (2B) 3–12
T 7 Haris Mansoor Martin White (3B) 4–12
T 9 Jorma Möttölä Haris Mansoor (3B) 5–12
T 18 Ish Bowen Adeel Rauf (2B) 6–12
T 18 Ish Bowen Ish Bowen (HR) 7–12
T 19 Jorma Möttölä Ish Bowen (3B) 8–12
T 23 Shea Rangi Colin Rangi (3B) 9–12
T 23 Shea Rangi Martin White (3B) 10–12
T 23 Shea Rangi Shea Rangi (HR) 11–12
T 23 Haris Mansoor Shea Rangi (3B) 12–12
T 23 Haris Mansoor Bruno Reath (2B) 13–12
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Siadi Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 415' · RF 378' · 13' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Trolley Shed Round Bowl
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 3 HR
386' 415' 378' Jorma Möttölä — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +26° · 230 ft Nathan Chapman — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 88 ft Adeel Rauf — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Colin Rangi — double · EV 99 mph · LA +34° · 367 ft Martin White — double · EV 90 mph · LA +17° · 184 ft Haris Mansoor — single · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 230 ft Joe Rivera — single · EV 86 mph · LA -10° · 82 ft Jorma Möttölä — single · EV 109 mph · LA -2° · 104 ft Nathan Chapman — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 282 ft Adeel Rauf — single · EV 86 mph · LA -23° · 82 ft Colin Rangi — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 145 ft Martin White — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 333 ft Haris Mansoor — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Ish Bowen — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +35° · 408 ft Jorma Möttölä — line_out · EV 104 mph · LA +21° · 289 ft Nathan Chapman — single · EV 86 mph · LA +24° · 219 ft Colin Rangi — single · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 386 ft Martin White — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 151 ft Shea Rangi — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +39° · 432 ft Haris Mansoor — single · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 348 ft
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 10 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
386' 415' 378' Cameron Baccus — single · EV 83 mph · LA +10° · 100 ft Yunieski Gurriel — single · EV 80 mph · LA +1° · 76 ft Finn Smeltz — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -8° · 65 ft Hilton Talbot — single · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 81 ft Josh Lopez — error · EV 69 mph · LA -10° · 66 ft Mustafa Longley — single · EV 82 mph · LA +15° · 138 ft Ryan Tolo — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +32° · 200 ft Mustafa Longley — double · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 200 ft Cameron Baccus — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA -1° · 68 ft Dallas Reed — single · EV 73 mph · LA -6° · 70 ft Mustafa Longley — single · EV 66 mph · LA +22° · 122 ft Didi Bogaerts — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft Harry Sainsbury — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA +6° · 50 ft Cameron Baccus — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 102 ft Dallas Reed — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA -0° · 74 ft Hilton Talbot — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Mustafa Longley — double · EV 89 mph · LA +24° · 237 ft Yunieski Gurriel — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 176 ft Dallas Reed — single · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Auckland Tailors
82% deserve-to-win  ·  11.6 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 24.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 25.0 (+0.5 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jorma Möttölä 104 / +21° Center Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Nathan Chapman 95 / +25° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Martin White 98 / +30° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Martin White 92 / +13° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Colin Rangi 100 / +37° Pull Single 2.0 → 1 -1.02
Melbourne Baseball Club
18% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +6.6 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+5.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mustafa Longley 89 / +24° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Mustafa Longley 94 / +17° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Cameron Baccus 71 / -1° Center Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Dallas Reed 73 / -6° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Dallas Reed 76 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
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