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BHP Wolves 11, Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd 9    2046-04-17 · #776
at Same Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Brisbane               11   11    9    0
Wellington              9    9    9    0

BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Murphy      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Maley       1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Henry       c  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Gregorius   lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Head        cf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Marsh       rf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Goodwin     3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Berhane     2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Baccus      p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Neill       j  ......    2   3   2   0   0   2   6   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hassett     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  13  11   9   5   0   2  11   3   1   0   0  0.692
  2B: Maley (10), Henry (5), Gregorius (7), Head (4), Goodwin (2).
  HR: Neill 2 (4), off Kahukura, Morris.
  CS: Goodwin (2).


WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mitchell    1b ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Mitchell    cf ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Campbell    ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Holman      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Clarke      c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Spiranovic  rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Davidson    lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Catley      3b ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Kahukura    p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  0.000
Hakala      j  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Moore       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Totals                  33   9   9   3   0   0   8   3  12   0   1  0.273
  2B: Mitchell (7), Catley 2 (5).


BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baccus ..............     9    3  11%    5    3    3    1    1    0   33    -
Baker ...............    14   11  41%    2    4    4    2    7    0   56  3-2
Risdon (W, 1-1) .....    13   13  48%    2    2    2    0    4    0   45  3-2

WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kahukura (L, 1-4) ...    11    3  11%    8    7    6    2    1    1   37    -
Morris ..............     5    3  11%    1    4    4    1    0    1   21  2-1

  Batting order: Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd (home) batted first; BHP Wolves batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM PETT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain. seed 883575.
  Walk-Back runs: off Kahukura 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Shane Mitchell Jarrod Mitchell (2B) 0–1
B 2 Niko Hakala Shane Mitchell (2B) 0–2
B 3 Garang Davidson Jock Clarke (3B) 0–3
B 4 Leo Kahukura Niko Hakala (3B) 0–4
B 13 James Catley Garang Davidson (3B) 0–5
B 13 James Catley Jarrod Mitchell (2B) 0–6
B 14 Shane Mitchell Garang Davidson (3B) 0–7
B 18 Dimitri Holman James Catley (3B) 0–8
B 22 James Catley Leo Kahukura (3B) 0–9
T 0 Lindsay Henry Damien Maley (2B) 1–9
T 0 Nathan Gregorius Lindsay Henry (2B) 2–9
T 0 James Head Nathan Gregorius (2B) 3–9
T 2 Aron Goodwin Jack Marsh (1B) 4–9
T 3 Danny Neill Desta Berhane (1B) 5–9
T 3 Danny Neill Danny Neill (HR) 6–9
T 3 Bailey Baccus Danny Neill (3B) 7–9
T 6 Danny Neill Bailey Baccus (3B) 8–9
T 6 Danny Neill Lindsay Henry (2B) 9–9
T 6 Danny Neill James Head (1B) 10–9
T 6 Danny Neill Danny Neill (HR) 11–9
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Same Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 339' · CF 409' · RF 327' · 18' wall). Balanced.
Ivy Wall Scoreboard Clock
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 5 XBH · 2 HR
339' 409' 327' Wall 18' Damien Maley — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 391 ft Lindsay Henry — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 247 ft Nathan Gregorius — double · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 225 ft James Head — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 361 ft Jack Marsh — single · EV 99 mph · LA -10° · 94 ft Aron Goodwin — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 235 ft Danny Neill — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +29° · 478 ft Bailey Baccus — single · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 282 ft Lindsay Henry — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Nathan Gregorius — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +52° · 480 ft Danny Neill — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
339' 409' 327' Wall 18' Jarrod Mitchell — double · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 322 ft Shane Mitchell — single · EV 84 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Dyson Campbell — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +33° · 322 ft Jock Clarke — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Niko Hakala — single · EV 82 mph · LA +13° · 120 ft Garang Davidson — single · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 180 ft Leo Kahukura — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -15° · 82 ft Jarrod Mitchell — fielders_choice · EV 71 mph · LA -12° · 67 ft James Catley — double · EV 98 mph · LA +38° · 377 ft Vince Spiranovic — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 297 ft Garang Davidson — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Jarrod Mitchell — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 171 ft Shane Mitchell — single · EV 82 mph · LA -4° · 77 ft Dimitri Holman — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +29° · 242 ft James Catley — double · EV 91 mph · LA +12° · 130 ft Jarrod Mitchell — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 218 ft Shane Mitchell — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +20° · 232 ft Niko Hakala — single · EV 85 mph · LA +21° · 196 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
BHP Wolves
72% deserve-to-win  ·  9.6 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 18.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 20.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Nathan Gregorius 119 / +52° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.59
Danny Neill 119 / +29° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.03
Bailey Baccus 100 / +22° Pull Single 1.6 → 1 -0.56
Nathan Gregorius 119 / +12° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.47
Jack Marsh 99 / -10° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.45
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd
28% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 11.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Shane Mitchell 96 / +20° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
James Catley 91 / +12° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.13
Dyson Campbell 94 / +33° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Jarrod Mitchell 100 / +27° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Vince Spiranovic 92 / +31° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.80
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