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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 16, Berlin Baseball Klub 4            2046-04-17 · #760
at Sarraf Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Berlin                  4    4    3    1
Panevėžys              16   16   18    0

BERLIN BASEBALL KLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alfonso     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dillingham  2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Rewolinski  ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kallis      c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Lyle        rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Tatís       3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wiesner     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Granville   cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Blue        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Javed       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Besler      j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   4   3   1   0   1   4   2  13   0   0  0.111
  2B: Lyle (1).
  HR: Kallis (1), off Kittay.
  SB: Granville (2).
  E: Dillingham (3).
  HBP: Tatís (1), Granville (1).
  GIDP: Rewolinski (1).


PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    4   2   2   1   1   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Turnbow     c  ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   4   1   2   1   0  0.500
Cunha       lf ......    5   3   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.200
Mejía       rf ......    4   2   3   1   1   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.750
Lehnhoff    3b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Féliz       2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Kittay      p  ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Mozee       cf ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
Bullard     1b ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.667
Saul        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Faga        j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  37  16  18   5   2   3  16   4   8   2   0  0.486
  2B: Shafie (10), Turnbow 2 (6), Mejía (7), Féliz (4).
  3B: Shafie (3), Mejía (1).
  HR: Cunha (7), off Shibata; Kittay (2), off Chittenden; Faga (1), off Shibata.
  SB: Cunha (3), Mozee (1).
  CS: Shafie (4).


BERLIN BASEBALL KLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Blue ................    11    7  26%    4    2    2    1    0    0   44    -
Shibata (L, 0-1) ....     4    0   0%    5    7    6    0    0    2   15  2-2
Gipson ..............    11    8  30%    5    3    1    1    2    0   34  1-0
Chittenden ..........    15   12  44%    4    4    3    2    6    1   63  1-0

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kittay (W, 2-0) .....    28   27 100%    3    4    4    2   13    1  121    -

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted first; Berlin Baseball Klub batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 64°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 618116.
  Walk-Back runs: off Shibata 1, off Chittenden 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 5 Destyn Kittay Sadiel Mejía (2B) 0–1
B 6 Harris Shafie Destyn Kittay (3B) 0–2
B 7 Diego Turnbow Donni Mozee (2B) 0–3
B 7 Diego Turnbow Turner Bullard (1B) 0–4
B 7 Nicholas Cunha Diego Turnbow (2B) 0–5
B 7 Nicholas Cunha Nicholas Cunha (HR) 0–6
B 7 Sadiel Mejía Nicholas Cunha (3B) 0–7
B 7 Mackenzie Faga Sadiel Mejía (3B) 0–8
B 7 Mackenzie Faga Mackenzie Faga (HR) 0–9
B 11 Harris Shafie Donni Mozee (2B) 0–10
B 13 Nicholas Cunha Harris Shafie (3B) 0–11
B 14 Armondo Lehnhoff Nicholas Cunha (2B) 0–12
B 18 Harris Shafie Turner Bullard (1B) 0–13
B 24 Destyn Kittay Destyn Kittay (HR) 0–14
B 26 Diego Turnbow Destyn Kittay (3B) 0–15
B 26 Diego Turnbow Harris Shafie (1B) 0–16
T 11 Cameron Dillingham Robinson Tatís (3B) 1–16
T 11 Connor Kallis Cameron Dillingham (1B) 2–16
T 11 Connor Kallis Connor Kallis (HR) 3–16
T 22 Lenoir Lyle Oscar Granville (3B) 4–16
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Berlin Baseball Klub — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Connor Kallis — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -20° · 75 ft Cameron Dillingham — single · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Charles Rewolinski — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA +12° · 111 ft Connor Kallis — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 386 ft Lenoir Lyle — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -14° · 77 ft Cameron Dillingham — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 73 ft Murphy Besler — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -0° · 81 ft Lenoir Lyle — double · EV 100 mph · LA +29° · 337 ft Yandy Alfonso — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -7° · 73 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 8 1B · 7 XBH · 3 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Diego Turnbow — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +29° · 315 ft Nicholas Cunha — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +10° · 168 ft Sadiel Mejía — single · EV 103 mph · LA +23° · 306 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Tavierre Saul — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +35° · 255 ft Destyn Kittay — single · EV 85 mph · LA +15° · 142 ft Donni Mozee — single · EV 79 mph · LA +8° · 69 ft Turner Bullard — single · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 117 ft Mackenzie Faga — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +39° · 464 ft Ronald Féliz — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -17° · 92 ft Harris Shafie — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +44° · 400 ft Diego Turnbow — double · EV 108 mph · LA +23° · 335 ft Nicholas Cunha — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +28° · 388 ft Sadiel Mejía — double · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 297 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — single · EV 90 mph · LA -16° · 85 ft Destyn Kittay — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +25° · 182 ft Donni Mozee — single · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Ronald Féliz — double · EV 117 mph · LA +16° · 286 ft Turner Bullard — single · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Sadiel Mejía — triple · EV 97 mph · LA +16° · 199 ft Harris Shafie — triple · EV 109 mph · LA +17° · 267 ft Nicholas Cunha — error · EV 90 mph · LA +7° · 85 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — single · EV 87 mph · LA +17° · 173 ft Destyn Kittay — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +44° · 261 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 331 ft Destyn Kittay — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Diego Turnbow — double · EV 100 mph · LA +48° · 398 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Berlin Baseball Klub
3% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.0 vs expected
contact: 5.6 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Connor Kallis 100 / +37° Pull Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.98
Lenoir Lyle 100 / +29° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Cameron Dillingham 76 / -9° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Charles Rewolinski 81 / +12° Pull Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Murphy Besler 85 / +0° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.36
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
97% deserve-to-win  ·  16.8 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 33.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 34.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Harris Shafie 100 / +44° Center Out 2.5 → 0 -2.49
Sadiel Mejía 97 / +16° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.69
Nicholas Cunha 109 / +28° Oppo Home Run 2.4 → 4 +1.63
Nicholas Cunha 108 / +10° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Harris Shafie 109 / +17° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.32
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