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BHP Wolves 19, Perth Smelters 8                             2046-04-29 · #1300
at Gasset Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Perth                   8      -    8    8    0
Brisbane               19      0   19   17    0

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
McCullum    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Esson   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cummings    1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Skilton     3b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Hadlee      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Olla    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Smeltz      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Bowen   ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  0.500
  d-Arzani  lf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
  e-Wesbroo cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Ingles  ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  g-Madgen  nf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Cumming pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Olla        j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Giddey      j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29   8   8   2   0   0   6   6   8   1   0  0.276
  2B: Skilton (5), Bowen (7).
  SB: Arzani (3).
  CS: Arzani (9).
  HBP: Ingles (1).
  GIDP: Olla 2 (3), Skilton (2).
  a-Grounded out for McCullum in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Hadlee in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Smeltz in the 6th.
  d-Entered at LF in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at CF in the 4th.
  f-Entered at SS in the 4th.
  g-Entered at NF in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Esson in the 5th.

BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blicavs     rf ......    4   3   3   2   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.750
Vukovic     ss ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.667
Head        c  ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
Boyens      1b ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Goodwin     3b ......    2   4   1   1   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  0.500
Wilkinson   2b ......    3   3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
McPherson   lf ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Gliddon     cf ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Baccus      p  ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   2   1   2   1   0  0.500
Neill       j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Hassett     j  ......    2   1   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  37  19  17   5   0   4  18   4   9   1   0  0.459
  2B: Blicavs 2 (2), Boyens (5), Goodwin (5), Baccus (1).
  HR: Blicavs (5), off Hadlee; Head (6), off Hadlee; McPherson (6), off Choibalsan; Hassett (6), off Vukona.
  SB: Goodwin (2).
  CS: Blicavs (1).
  HBP: Boyens (3), Wilkinson (3).


PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hadlee ..............     5    3  11%    3    3    2    0    1    2   17    -
Rangihau ............    15   11  41%    4    4    4    1    4    0   55  1-0
Scott ...............     8    4  15%    5    4    4    1    0    0   24  1-1
Choibalsan (L, 0-1) .     8    3  11%    4    6    5    2    1    1   34  1-1
Vukona ..............     7    6  22%    1    2    2    0    3    1   31  1-1

BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baccus (W, 2-0) .....    25   18  67%    4    6    6    6    7    0   95    -
Andersen (F, 11) ....    10    9  33%    4    2    2    0    1    0   30  2-1

  Batting order: BHP Wolves (home) batted first; Perth Smelters batted second.
  Seconds: BW o26 (19-0).
  First pitch 1:35 PM VLAT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Dry. seed 329385.
  Powerplays: Perth Smelters — Madgen NF (O11)
  Walk-Back runs: off Hadlee 1, off Choibalsan 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Joshua Blicavs Joshua Blicavs (HR) 0–1
B 0 Cam Vukovic Joshua Blicavs (3B) 0–2
B 1 James Head James Head (HR) 0–3
B 5 Bailey Baccus Aron Goodwin (3B) 0–4
B 5 Bailey Baccus Ivan Wilkinson (2B) 0–5
B 13 Cam Vukovic Aron Goodwin (3B) 0–6
B 13 Cam Vukovic Mihaka Boyens (2B) 0–7
B 13 Joshua Blicavs Cam Vukovic (1B) 0–8
B 13 Danny Neill Joshua Blicavs (2B) 0–9
B 17 Mihaka Boyens Ivan Wilkinson (2B) 0–10
B 17 Mihaka Boyens Aron Goodwin (1B) 0–11
B 17 James Head Mihaka Boyens (2B) 0–12
B 17 Joshua Blicavs James Head (2B) 0–13
B 17 Joshua Blicavs Cam Vukovic (1B) 0–14
B 20 Butch McPherson Butch McPherson (HR) 0–15
B 20 Aron Goodwin Butch McPherson (3B) 0–16
B 20 Aron Goodwin Ivan Wilkinson (1B) 0–17
B 24 Pita Hassett Aron Goodwin (3B) 0–18
B 24 Pita Hassett Pita Hassett (HR) 0–19
T 14 Aaron Arzani Antonio Wesbrook (3B) 1–19
T 14 Aaron Arzani Nikita Madgen (2B) 2–19
T 16 Shane Bowen Pat Cummings (3B) 3–19
T 16 Shane Bowen Aaron Arzani (2B) 4–19
T 18 Nikita Madgen Adam Olla (3B) 5–19
T 18 Brock Giddey Shane Bowen (3B) 6–19
T 20 Pat Cummings Nikita Madgen (3B) 7–19
T 21 Jeet Skilton Pat Cummings (2B) 8–19
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Gasset Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 393' · RF 333' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
338' 393' 333' Nikita Madgen — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +29° · 212 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Jeet Skilton — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Brock Giddey — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +42° · 236 ft Matt Esson — error · EV 77 mph · LA +21° · 162 ft Jack Cummings — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 309 ft Shane Bowen — double · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 310 ft Pat Cummings — single · EV 79 mph · LA +16° · 132 ft Adam Olla — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -10° · 53 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 128 ft Brock Giddey — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 211 ft Jack Cummings — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Shane Bowen — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Scott Olla — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Aaron Arzani — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +52° · 236 ft Jeet Skilton — double · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft Alex Ingles — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 107 ft Brock Giddey — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +44° · 267 ft Scott Olla — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA -12° · 58 ft
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 8 1B · 5 XBH · 4 HR
338' 393' 333' Joshua Blicavs — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +31° · 480 ft Cam Vukovic — single · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft James Head — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 363 ft Aron Goodwin — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA +0° · 79 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 311 ft Bailey Baccus — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 170 ft Danny Neill — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 155 ft Pita Hassett — single · EV 88 mph · LA +23° · 222 ft Butch McPherson — line_out · EV 72 mph · LA +13° · 90 ft Ivan Wilkinson — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -8° · 76 ft Cam Vukovic — single · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 265 ft Joshua Blicavs — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 231 ft Danny Neill — single · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 259 ft Mihaka Boyens — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 311 ft Aron Goodwin — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 225 ft Pita Hassett — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 393 ft Bailey Baccus — single · EV 100 mph · LA -0° · 95 ft Butch McPherson — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 83 ft James Head — single · EV 119 mph · LA +6° · 113 ft Joshua Blicavs — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 263 ft Butch McPherson — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +49° · 480 ft Nikita Gliddon — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +20° · 156 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Perth Smelters
20% deserve-to-win  ·  7.7 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 11.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-1.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jack Cummings 92 / +33° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Shane Bowen 92 / +33° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Jeet Skilton 92 / +35° Oppo Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Brock Giddey 82 / +44° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.66
Matt Esson 77 / +21° Center Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.60
BHP Wolves
80% deserve-to-win  ·  15.5 expected runs
actual 19 runs  ·  +3.5 vs expected
contact: 27.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 33.0 (+5.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Butch McPherson 119 / +49° Center Home Run 1.6 → 4 +2.36
James Head 100 / +33° Pull Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Pita Hassett 100 / +40° Center Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Danny Neill 100 / +11° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Joshua Blicavs 119 / +31° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.96
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