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Brisbane Thunder 6, Sydney Border Force 3                   2046-04-29 · #1281
at Genia Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                6      -    6    8    0
Sydney                  3      0    3    5    0

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hsia        lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Gorry   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ponce       rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rivera  rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Wagner      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bogut       c  ......    2   0   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gustavsson  2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Brondello   ss ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Henry       3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
Puhi        cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Anton       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Ingles  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Webster 2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Paniagu ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Clegg   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Vukovic     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   1  0.000
Toumi       j  ......    3   3   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Robinson    j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   6   8   4   0   0   6   4   8   0   2  0.276
  2B: Toumi 2 (11), Bogut 2 (3).
  GIDP: Gustavsson (3), Ingles (2), Webster (3).
  Squeeze: Vukovic (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Hsia in the 2nd.
  b-Replaced Ponce at RF in the 7th.
  c-Batted in the 6th.
  d-Replaced Robinson at 2B in the 7th.
  e-Struck out in the 8th.
  f-Ran in the 9th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Henry       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Gorry   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Percival    lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rukavytsya  2b ......    3   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Pledger     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Buffington  rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Halloran    ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Wagner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rulli       1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  c-Nayler  c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Riise   ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pledger     j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Hunt        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   3   5   2   1   0   1   3  19   0   0  0.167
  2B: Pledger (4), Halloran (1).
  3B: Rukavytsya (1).
  CS: Nayler (1).
  HBP: Pledger (1).
  a-Batted for Henry in the 7th.
  b-Struck out for Halloran in the 8th.
  c-Entered at C in the 7th.
  d-Entered at SS in the 8th.

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Anton (W, 0-1) ......    19   14  52%    4    3    3    2    7    0   65    -
Vukona (F, 13) ......    15   13  48%    1    0    0    1   12    0   50    -

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henry (L, 1-2) ......    15   14  52%    3    3    3    1    5    0   57    -
García ..............    14   11  41%    4    2    2    2    3    0   40    -
Rennie ..............     3    2   7%    0    1    1    1    0    0    8  2-1

  Batting order: Sydney Border Force (home) batted second; Brisbane Thunder batted first.
  Seconds: SBF o24 (3-6).
  First pitch 6:30 PM VLAT. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 596598.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 4 Bruno Bogut Anis Toumi (3B) 1–0
T 6 Andrew Henry David Gorry (3B) 2–0
T 12 Aaron Vukovic Fran Brondello (3B) 3–0
T 24 Bruno Bogut Anis Toumi (2B) 4–0
T 24 Anis Toumi Alba Clegg (3B) 5–0
T 26 Mika Puhi Anis Toumi (2B) 6–0
B 4 Shaun Halloran Cam Nayler (2B) 6–1
B 8 Hoani Percival Mika Pledger (3B) 6–2
B 10 Mika Pledger Shaun Halloran (3B) 6–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Genia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 362' · CF 435' · RF 397' · 7' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Aaron Vukovic — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Anis Toumi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 124 ft Mark Robinson — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 187 ft Chien-fu Hsia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 117 ft Casey Wagner — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -33° · 72 ft Bruno Bogut — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 213 ft Glenn Gustavsson — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Fran Brondello — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Andrej Ingles — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -27° · 72 ft Tony Webster — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Henry Ponce — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 258 ft Casey Wagner — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Anis Toumi — single · EV 92 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Mark Robinson — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Mika Puhi — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +40° · 195 ft Tohi Anton — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 202 ft Bruno Bogut — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 304 ft Andrej Ingles — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 197 ft Anis Toumi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 316 ft Mika Puhi — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -23° · 49 ft
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Cam Nayler — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 84 ft Mitchell Pledger — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft Shaun Halloran — double · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 203 ft Jørgen Riise — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +38° · 223 ft Mika Pledger — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 187 ft Hoani Percival — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Mika Pledger — double · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 270 ft Hoani Percival — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +26° · 119 ft Moises Rukavytsya — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 325 ft Jørgen Riise — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -11° · 75 ft Manuel Rulli — single · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brisbane Thunder
90% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 10.6 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+0.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anis Toumi 92 / +11° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Mark Robinson 92 / +17° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Bruno Bogut 92 / +20° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Bruno Bogut 92 / +32° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Anis Toumi 92 / +34° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Sydney Border Force
10% deserve-to-win  ·  2.1 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 6.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+2.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Moises Rukavytsya 119 / +18° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.27
Mika Pledger 92 / +26° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Shaun Halloran 92 / +18° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Mitchell Pledger 76 / +18° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Manuel Rulli 88 / +8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
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