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Sydney Border Force 14, Brisbane Thunder 9                  2046-04-28 · #1269
at Genia Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                9      0    9   11    0
Sydney                 14      -   14   12    0

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Paniagua    c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Gorry       lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Hsia        2b ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Ponce       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wagner      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bogut       1b ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.333
Gustavsson  ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
Puhi        cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Ingles  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Vukovic     p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Vukovic     j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Toumi       j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Robinson    j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Totals                  31   9  11   2   0   1   9   4   6   0   1  0.355
  2B: Toumi (9), Robinson (9).
  HR: Bogut (1), off Rowles.
  SB: Robinson (5), Gorry (4), Gustavsson (4).
  CS: Gorry (6).
  a-Singled for Puhi in the 9th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Percival    lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Jiménez-Tro c  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Pledger     cf ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
Buffington  rf ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   3   0   0  0.250
Crowe       3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Vine        ss ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Rukavytsya  2b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Rennie      p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.500
  a-Gorry   ph ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.667
Pledger     j  ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Hunt        j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  33  14  12   7   1   2  13   3  16   0   1  0.364
  2B: Jiménez-Tromp (2), Pledger (5), Crowe (4), Hunt (5), Vine (3), Rukavytsya (3), Rennie (1).
  3B: Pledger (1).
  HR: Buffington (1), off Cooper; Gorry (4), off Leckie.
  SB: Pledger (6), Rukavytsya (3).
  CS: Hunt (2).
  HBP: Percival (1), Hunt (4), Gorry (2).
  a-Batted for Hunt in the 2nd.

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Vukovic .............     9    7  26%    3    1    1    0    5    0   31    -
Chidiac .............     4    3  11%    1    2    2    0    2    0   18  1-1
Cooper ..............     4    1   4%    3    3    3    1    0    1   13    -
Jiménez-Tromp .......    15   11  41%    3    3    2    1    6    0   48  1-1
Leckie (L, 0-1) .....     6    4  15%    2    5    5    1    2    1   23  2-2
Steinmetz ...........     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    3  1-0

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rennie (W, 3-2) .....    24   20  74%    7    4    4    2    4    0  102    -
Rowles ..............    10    7  26%    3    4    3    2    2    1   39  1-0
Goulding ............     1    0   0%    1    1    1    0    0    0    1  1-1

  Batting order: Sydney Border Force (home) batted first; Brisbane Thunder batted second.
  Seconds: BT o26 (9-14).
  First pitch 5:00 PM VLAT. Weather: 72°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 557515.
  Walk-Back runs: off Jiménez-Tromp 1, off Rowles 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 6 Todd Gorry Doug Crowe (2B) 0–1
B 8 Ross Rennie Todd Gorry (1B) 0–2
B 9 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Ross Rennie (3B) 0–3
B 10 Richard Hunt Mika Pledger (3B) 0–4
B 11 Stefan Buffington Mitchell Pledger (1B) 0–5
B 11 Stefan Buffington Stefan Buffington (HR) 0–6
B 11 Doug Crowe Stefan Buffington (3B) 0–7
B 13 Moises Rukavytsya Marco Vine (2B) 0–8
B 20 Moises Rukavytsya Mitchell Pledger (3B) 0–9
B 22 Ross Rennie Moises Rukavytsya (3B) 0–10
B 23 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Hoani Percival (1B) 0–11
B 26 Todd Gorry Richard Hunt (3B) 0–12
B 26 Todd Gorry Xander Jiménez-Tromp (2B) 0–13
B 26 Todd Gorry Todd Gorry (HR) 0–14
T 3 David Gorry Mark Robinson (3B) 1–14
T 10 Aaron Vukovic Chien-fu Hsia (3B) 2–14
T 10 Anis Toumi Aaron Vukovic (1B) 3–14
T 17 Mika Puhi Edwin Paniagua (3B) 4–14
T 26 Bruno Bogut Anis Toumi (2B) 5–14
T 26 Bruno Bogut Chien-fu Hsia (1B) 6–14
T 26 Bruno Bogut Bruno Bogut (HR) 7–14
T 26 Glenn Gustavsson Bruno Bogut (3B) 8–14
T 26 Andrej Ingles Glenn Gustavsson (2B) 9–14
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Genia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 362' · CF 435' · RF 397' · 7' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
362' 435' 397' Anis Toumi — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 246 ft Mark Robinson — double · EV 99 mph · LA +21° · 264 ft David Gorry — single · EV 100 mph · LA -11° · 95 ft Chien-fu Hsia — single · EV 110 mph · LA +4° · 105 ft Henry Ponce — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +19° · 196 ft Casey Wagner — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Bruno Bogut — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 321 ft Glenn Gustavsson — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +12° · 148 ft Mika Puhi — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +5° · 78 ft Doug Vukovic — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 193 ft Andrej Ingles — single · EV 94 mph · LA -12° · 89 ft Aaron Vukovic — single · EV 87 mph · LA -2° · 82 ft Anis Toumi — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 401 ft Chien-fu Hsia — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +28° · 308 ft Henry Ponce — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 137 ft Mika Puhi — single · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Doug Vukovic — single · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft David Gorry — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Glenn Gustavsson — single · EV 106 mph · LA +16° · 235 ft Chien-fu Hsia — single · EV 119 mph · LA +7° · 113 ft Casey Wagner — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -17° · 94 ft Bruno Bogut — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +36° · 430 ft
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 8 XBH · 2 HR
362' 435' 397' Hoani Percival — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +25° · 300 ft Mitchell Pledger — double · EV 99 mph · LA +15° · 196 ft Doug Crowe — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 173 ft Todd Gorry — single · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 269 ft Ross Rennie — double · EV 99 mph · LA +18° · 233 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -7° · 71 ft Mika Pledger — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 231 ft Richard Hunt — double · EV 109 mph · LA +29° · 400 ft Stefan Buffington — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Todd Gorry — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Marco Vine — double · EV 104 mph · LA +18° · 249 ft Moises Rukavytsya — double · EV 116 mph · LA +12° · 219 ft Ross Rennie — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -7° · 82 ft Moises Rukavytsya — single · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Mika Pledger — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 126 ft Todd Gorry — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — double · EV 87 mph · LA +38° · 290 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brisbane Thunder
48% deserve-to-win  ·  12.7 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -3.7 vs expected
contact: 20.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-4.8 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (-0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anis Toumi 100 / +19° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.54
Bruno Bogut 100 / +27° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Doug Vukovic 100 / +14° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Glenn Gustavsson 96 / +12° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Chien-fu Hsia 96 / +28° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Sydney Border Force
52% deserve-to-win  ·  13.2 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  +0.8 vs expected
contact: 24.6 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 27.0 (+2.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Xander Jiménez-Tromp 87 / +38° Center Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Mika Pledger 100 / +18° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.46
Mika Pledger 100 / +9° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Hoani Percival 98 / +25° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Mitchell Pledger 99 / +15° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
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