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Perth Smelters 7, Brisbane Thunder 6                        2046-04-25 · #1134
at Billa Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Perth                   7    7    7    0
Brisbane                6    6    3    0

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Arzani      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
McCullum    c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Brown   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Vanna       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Smeltz      lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Foster  c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Syph-Ti rf ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Madgen  c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  1.000
  e-Cumming nf ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Wetzell ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   .000
Olla        j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  13   7   7   1   1   0   6   1   3   1   0  0.538
  2B: Foster (3).
  3B: Cummings (1).
  SB: Foster (3).
  HBP: Arzani (4), Wetzell (1).
  Squeeze: Syph-Timmons (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for McCullum in the 1st.
  b-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at RF in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at NF in the 9th.
  f-Was hit by a pitch in the 1st.

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Paniagua    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wagner      rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Henry       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Webster cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gauci       1b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   .000
Gorry       lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Buehning    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Puhi        3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Anton       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Ingles  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Morgan  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Brondel pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Daniels pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Ponce   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vukovic     j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Robinson    j  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Toumi       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  27   6   3   1   0   0   3   6  13   0   0  0.111
  2B: Robinson (8).
  CS: Gorry (5), Puhi (1).
  HBP: Gorry (4).
  GIDP: Vukovic (1), Webster (2).
  a-Replaced Henry at CF in the 7th.
  b-Batted in the 3rd.
  c-Replaced Toumi at C in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Morgan in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 8th.

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Vanna (W, 2-0) ......    19   14  52%    2    2    1    3    5    0   73    -
Gersbach ............    13   11  41%    1    4    4    3    7    0   46  3-2
Jawai ...............     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0   10  1-0

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Anton (L, 0-1) ......     6    1   4%    5    2    2    0    0    0   18    -
Chidiac .............     4    2   7%    1    2    2    1    1    0   15  3-2
Cooper ..............     4    3  11%    0    2    2    0    2    0   17  3-2
Jiménez-Tromp .......     1    1   4%    0    1    1    0    0    0    4  3-1

  Batting order: Brisbane Thunder (home) batted first; Perth Smelters batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM VLAT. Weather: 80°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 747507.
  Powerplays: Perth Smelters — Cummings NF (O13)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 7 Andrej Ingles Luc Gauci (3B) 0–1
B 14 Luc Gauci Anis Toumi (3B) 0–2
B 15 Andrej Ingles Fran Brondello (3B) 0–3
B 15 Andrej Ingles Nikita Daniels (2B) 0–4
B 25 David Gorry Henry Ponce (3B) 0–5
B 25 David Gorry Aaron Vukovic (3B) 0–6
T 1 Jack Cummings Taylor Foster (3B) 1–6
T 1 Scott Olla Jack Cummings (3B) 2–6
T 1 Cam Wetzell Scott Olla (3B) 3–6
T 1 Nikita Madgen Ricardo Syph-Timmons (3B) 4–6
T 3 Aaron Arzani Jordan Brown (3B) 5–6
T 6 Ricardo Syph-Timmons Cam Wetzell (3B) 6–6
T 7 Cam Wetzell Ish Smeltz (3B) 7–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Billa Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 387' · CF 416' · RF 367' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Members' Pavilion
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Aaron Arzani — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Taylor Foster — double · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 246 ft Jack Cummings — triple · EV 97 mph · LA +24° · 279 ft Scott Olla — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 94 ft Ricardo Syph-Timmons — single · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 86 ft Iain McCullum — single · EV 82 mph · LA +21° · 180 ft Nikita Madgen — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA -4° · 69 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 325 ft
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
387' 416' 367' Casey Wagner — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -2° · 62 ft Aaron Vukovic — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -0° · 87 ft Anis Toumi — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +5° · 75 ft Jameson Buehning — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +4° · 70 ft Glenn Morgan — fielders_choice · EV 59 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Andrej Ingles — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +6° · 89 ft Tony Webster — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Aaron Vukovic — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Mark Robinson — double · EV 95 mph · LA +20° · 234 ft Anis Toumi — error · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 183 ft Casey Wagner — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 244 ft Anis Toumi — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 161 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Perth Smelters
63% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 5.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+3.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jack Cummings 97 / +24° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.68
Scott Olla 92 / +37° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Taylor Foster 92 / +23° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Nikita Madgen 72 / -4° Pull Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Scott Olla 76 / +12° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Brisbane Thunder
37% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 6.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mark Robinson 95 / +20° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Anis Toumi 92 / +16° Oppo Reached on Error 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Tony Webster 76 / +15° Oppo Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Aaron Vukovic 92 / +0° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.43
Andrej Ingles 93 / +6° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.43
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