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Mbarara Hounds 19, Berlin Baseball Klub 3                   2046-04-23 · #1052
at Chiwunga Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Mbarara                16      3   19   18    0
Berlin                  3      0    3    5    0

MBARARA HOUNDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Eledge      cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Lindsay     2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Kennedy     c  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.333
Carr        3b ......    5   3   3   1   1   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Torreira    1b ......    2   3   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Chisom  c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Bergstrom   p  ......    4   3   3   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.750
Christenson lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kagawa      rf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Suárez      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Eaton       j  ......    4   2   4   2   0   1   5   0   1   1   0  1.000
Jones       j  ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  39  19  18   6   1   1  15   9  11   1   0  0.462
  2B: Carr (5), Eaton 2 (14), Bergstrom (2), Kagawa (1), Chisom (1).
  3B: Carr (2).
  HR: Eaton (5), off Shibata.
  SB: Eledge 2 (2).
  CS: Chisom (1).
  GIDP: Carr (1).
  a-Replaced Torreira at C in the 7th.

BERLIN BASEBALL KLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alfonso     1b ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Peoples     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Shelton     lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Marais      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Matos       rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Altuve      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sosa        ss ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Encarnación p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Kallis  c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Javed       j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   5   2   1   0   3   1  15   0   1  0.179
  2B: Shelton (2), Sosa (2).
  3B: Alfonso (1).
  HBP: Peoples (1), Shelton (2).
  Squeeze: Peoples (1 RBI).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

MBARARA HOUNDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bergstrom (W, 6-0) ..    31   27 100%    5    3    3    1   15    0  132    -

BERLIN BASEBALL KLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Encarnación .........    13    8  30%    8    5    5    0    4    0   51    -
Shibata .............    15   10  37%    4    3    3    2    5    1   61    -
Burrows (L, 0-4) ....     7    2   7%    4    6    6    2    1    0   24  3-3
Sojo ................    13    7  26%    2    5    5    5    1    0   61  2-2

  Batting order: Berlin Baseball Klub (home) batted second; Mbarara Hounds batted first.
  Seconds: MH o26 (16-0), BB1 o26 (3-16).
  First pitch 6:30 PM CET. Weather: 77°F · Wind out · Clear · Light rain. seed 266723.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Hal Eaton Chad Carr (3B) 1–0
T 5 Hajime Kagawa Armando Torreira (3B) 2–0
T 12 Hal Eaton Steve Eledge (3B) 3–0
T 12 Hal Eaton Hal Eaton (HR) 4–0
T 14 Wilmer Suárez Armando Torreira (3B) 5–0
T 17 Sion Jones Ciaran Bergstrom (3B) 6–0
T 17 Hal Eaton Diehl Christenson (3B) 7–0
T 18 Chad Carr Sven Kennedy (3B) 8–0
T 18 Ciaran Bergstrom Sion Jones (3B) 9–0
T 18 Ciaran Bergstrom Armando Torreira (1B) 10–0
T 19 Hajime Kagawa Chad Carr (3B) 11–0
T 21 Sven Kennedy Ciaran Bergstrom (3B) 12–0
T 24 Ciaran Bergstrom Hajime Kagawa (3B) 13–0
T 24 Diehl Christenson Everett Lindsay (3B) 14–0
T 24 Hajime Kagawa Sion Jones (3B) 15–0
T 24 Wilmer Suárez Ciaran Bergstrom (3B) 16–0
B 11 Kobus Marais Eddie Shelton (3B) 16–1
B 16 Ronny Sosa Yandy Alfonso (3B) 16–2
B 21 Berkeley Peoples Connor Kallis (3B) 16–3
seconds_first 0 Chad Carr Sven Kennedy (2B) 17–3
seconds_first 0 Hal Eaton Chad Carr (3B) 18–3
seconds_first 0 Alafia Chisom Hal Eaton (2B) 19–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Chiwunga Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 320' · CF 423' · RF 362' · 10' wall). Balanced.
Crow's Nest
Mbarara Hounds — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 10 1B · 7 XBH · 1 HR
320' 423' 362' Everett Lindsay — single · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 150 ft Chad Carr — double · EV 89 mph · LA +40° · 310 ft Armando Torreira — single · EV 83 mph · LA +14° · 128 ft Hal Eaton — double · EV 90 mph · LA +38° · 317 ft Hajime Kagawa — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +26° · 236 ft Wilmer Suárez — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +39° · 348 ft Sion Jones — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 98 ft Alafia Chisom — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 351 ft Steve Eledge — single · EV 99 mph · LA +46° · 391 ft Hal Eaton — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +30° · 434 ft Ciaran Bergstrom — single · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Diehl Christenson — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 176 ft Armando Torreira — fly_out · EV 53 mph · LA +43° · 114 ft Steve Eledge — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +11° · 129 ft Hal Eaton — single · EV 83 mph · LA +48° · 273 ft Chad Carr — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 115 ft Ciaran Bergstrom — double · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Diehl Christenson — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +21° · 236 ft Hajime Kagawa — double · EV 93 mph · LA +32° · 308 ft Sven Kennedy — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 165 ft Chad Carr — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -15° · 67 ft Ciaran Bergstrom — single · EV 66 mph · LA +11° · 68 ft Hajime Kagawa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 172 ft Wilmer Suárez — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Hal Eaton — double · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 402 ft Chad Carr — triple · EV 106 mph · LA +24° · 331 ft
Berlin Baseball Klub — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
320' 423' 362' Usman Javed — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -4° · 81 ft Eddie Shelton — double · EV 103 mph · LA +20° · 277 ft Usman Javed — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -3° · 73 ft Kobus Marais — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +9° · 87 ft Yandy Alfonso — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +16° · 243 ft Yordan Altuve — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 97 ft Ronny Sosa — double · EV 98 mph · LA +26° · 304 ft Kobus Marais — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +5° · 89 ft Connor Kallis — single · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 160 ft Roan Matos — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA +4° · 67 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Mbarara Hounds
96% deserve-to-win  ·  16.4 expected runs
actual 19 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 22.4 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (+6.6 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hal Eaton 111 / +30° Pull Home Run 2.3 → 4 +1.66
Chad Carr 106 / +24° Oppo Triple 1.6 → 3 +1.44
Hajime Kagawa 93 / +32° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Ciaran Bergstrom 95 / +12° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Wilmer Suárez 94 / +39° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Berlin Baseball Klub
4% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 7.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yandy Alfonso 108 / +16° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.60
Ronny Sosa 98 / +26° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Roan Matos 71 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Kobus Marais 85 / +9° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Yordan Altuve 76 / +12° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
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